The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Art Briles

Followed Guy Morriss. Art Briles raised Baylor from Regional Program V to Power Program III.

The ascent
99–65
2003–2015 · 2 stints
HoustonBaylor
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerHOUSTONBAYLORPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelHouston, 2003: 7-6, Regional Program III2003Houston, 2004: 3-8, Regional Program III2004Houston, 2005: 6-6, Regional Program III2005Houston, 2006: 10-4, Regional Program II2006Houston, 2007: 8-4, Regional Program II2007+2.7Baylor, 2008: 4-8, Regional Program IV2008Baylor, 2009: 4-8, Regional Program IV2009Baylor, 2010: 7-6, Regional Program III2010Baylor, 2011: 10-3, Regional Program I2011Baylor, 2012: 8-5, National Program III2012Baylor, 2013: 11-2, National Program I2013Baylor, 2014: 11-2, Power Program III2014Baylor, 2015: 10-3, Power Program III2015+34.7One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 12th career season — faster than 4% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #374 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Houston, 5 seasons
+2.7
Regional Program III → Regional Program II.
Baylor, 8 seasons
+34.7
Regional Program IV → Power Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%Baylor2008–2015▼ 10.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

12–7 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Tommy West.

Rivalry record
12–7
63.2% · 3 rivals
One-score games
26–28
48.1% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
4–11
26.7%
Rivalry ledger
Texas Tech5–362%
TCU3–350%
Rice4–180%
The toughest matchup
vs. Tommy West1–3
4 meetings, 2003–2006
’03 L’04 L’05 L’06 W
25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
4–11 26.7%
Power Program
17–19 47.2%
National Program
17–20 45.9%
Regional Program
48–15 76.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.28
#63 of 319 · more than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.03
#134 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2008–2015
Baylorbuilder
Regional Program V → Power Program III
Art Briles raised Baylor from Regional Program V to Power Program III.

1st-best Baylor tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+33.1 pts
#11 of 208 · more than most
Defense vs. talent
-3.2 pts
#118 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Guy Morriss (2003–2007) · succeeded by Jim Grobe (2016–2016).

Season20082009201020112012201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record4–84–87–610–38–511–211–210–3
Postseason——————L bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank——————#25#36
Style — pass rate
Pass rate——————45.635.3
Coordinators
OC——————Philip MontgomeryKendal Briles
DC——————Phil BennettPhil Bennett
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense——————9691
Defense——————3854
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%——————51.442.5
Red-zone pass%——————29.323.7
4th-down go%opp. territory——————51.461.9
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Philip Montgomery → Kendal Briles · 2015
96th pct91st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 51.4% → 42.5% (-8.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 61% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Michigan State 41–42 Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic2015: Beat North Carolina 49–38 Russell Athletic Bowl

26 NFL Draft picks: Jason Smith (2009), J.D. Walton (2010), David Gettis (2010), Phil Taylor (2011), Danny Watkins (2011), Mikail Baker (2011), Jay Finley (2011), Robert Griffin III (2012) + 18 more

65–37
2003–2007
Houstoncaretaker
Regional Program III → Regional Program II
Art Briles moved Houston from Regional Program III to Regional Program II in 5 seasons.

15th-best Houston tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Dana Dimel (2000–2002) · succeeded by Kevin Sumlin (2008–2011).

5 NFL Draft picks: Hanik Milligan (2003), Rex Hadnot (2004), Stanford Routt (2005), Kevin Kolb (2007), Donnie Avery (2008)

34–28