Nebraska at Illinois
Illinois (5‑3) hosts Nebraska (5‑3). The market has Nebraska favored by 4.5. The model gives Nebraska a 60% shot. Nebraska’s offense is at the 74th percentile on efficiency; Illinois’s defense is at the 10th.
How they got here
Last three games
Nebraska · 5-3
Rated 40th in our preseason ratings, 24th now, up 16 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Illinois · 5-3
Rated 70th in our preseason ratings, 71st now.
Three straight wins, including a 11-point win over Oregon as a 10.5-point underdog.
W 20-17 @ Maryland No. 113 of 668 teams
won by 3 as a 3-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Nebraska’s rushing EPA against Illinois, 70 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Nebraska’s EPA/play against Illinois’s defense
Nebraska offense, 74th percentile · Illinois defense, 10th
Nebraska’s rushing EPA against Illinois’s defense
Nebraska offense, 97th percentile · Illinois defense, 27th
Illinois’s explosive plays against Nebraska’s defense
Illinois offense, 79th percentile · Nebraska defense, 19th
What’s at stake
Nebraska
- Nebraska needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 86% with a loss.
- Nebraska hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2016.
Illinois
- Illinois needs 1 more win in the final 3 to reach bowl eligibility — 100% to get there with a win here, 67% with a loss.
- Illinois is the Big Ten program whose Red Grange 1924 era anchors the historical canon and whose Bret Bielema 2024 9-3 rebuild reset the modern competitive ceiling.
The series
Nebraska leads the series 14-7-1
22 meetings since 1892 · Illinois won the last meeting
- 2024Illinois 31-24
- 2023Nebraska 20-7
- 2022Illinois 26-9
- 2021Illinois 30-22
- 2020Illinois 41-23
Each line is Illinois’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Nebraska
The chip · vs the national mediaThe take that Nebraska is a museum — a great history and a hollow present, coasting on a sellout streak and 1990s highlights. The fanbase answers with the streak itself: still there, still full, still waiting.
What this game touches
The fall from the '90s — and the Raiola defection. Nebraska's 1990s dynasty (three titles in four years, a 60-3 run) gave way to a quarter-century of decline; the 2025 team went 7-5, and the franchise QB the program built around — legacy recruit Dylan Raiola — broke his leg, then transferred to Oregon, the latest gut-punch for the most loyal fanbase in the sport.
Illinois
The chip · vs the national mediaIllini fans are tired of being the Big Ten game nobody previews and the program penciled in as a loss; even at 9-4 they hear the analysts wait for the regression, and they want the respect a two-year climb has earned.
What this game touches
The long winter of irrelevance. For most of the modern era Illinois was the Big Ten's forgotten program — a 2008 Rose Bowl blowout and a 2007 fluke aside, decades of losing seasons and empty Octobers that taught the fanbase to expect nothing and brace for the bottom falling out.
Best players
Nebraska
- Owen Chambliss (LB) · 53 tackles
- Dwayne McDougle (DB) · 49 tackles
- Anthony Colandrea (QB) · 1,824 passing yards — Heisman odds: 35th (+12000)
Illinois
- Collin Dixon (WR) · 776 receiving yards
- Matthew Bailey (DB) · 55 tackles
- James Kreutz (LB) · 50 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Illinois fans are in a better mood than Nebraska fans (41st percentile vs 5th among FBS fanbases), even with Nebraska favored.
Nebraska favored by 4.5 · Total 50.5
Nebraska by 4.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Nebraska’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Memorial Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 84 to 87
Nebraska at Illinois · Friday, Nov. 6 · 8 pm ET · Memorial Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 3:30 pm 84, 7:30 pm 86.
- noon: 87, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 84, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 86, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Illinois is worth +3.1 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 30th percentile.
53% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (27-24 home, 19-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.5 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 448 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Illinois
- Wk 4Lat Ohio State19-42
- Wk 5Lvs Purdue17-24
- Wk 6Wat Michigan State38-37
- Wk 8Wvs Oregon21-10
- Wk 9Wat Maryland20-17
Nebraska
- Wk 4Wat Michigan State31-13
- Wk 5Wvs Maryland48-23
- Wk 6Lvs Indiana17-20
- Wk 7Lat Oregon14-17
- Wk 9Lvs Washington10-17
Power rating by week
Nebraska is rated 6.7 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Illinois.
Spread: +6 → +4.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Illinois 31, Nebraska 24Sep 20, 2024
Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2015.