underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Octavian Smith Jr. produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Maryland
2-1Latest
Big Ten · Mike Locksley, year 8 (38-45) · SECU Stadium · 51,802 · 44,803 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#57 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #43 (+7.9) · FPI #48
The marketUCLA by 1vs UCLA · our model 50% Maryland · a number, not a pick
LastL 26–35 vs Virginia Tech · Sat Sep 19 · Malik Washington 359 pass yds, 3 TD, 16 rush yds
Nextvs UCLA · Sat Sep 26 · 1:30 pm ET · SECU Stadium · UCLA by 1 · series 1-2, last win 1955 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 22 · through week 3
Maryland · 2026 schedule & results2-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 6 | #76 | #260 | -45.5✓ | Hampton | W 62–0 78 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #74 | #123 | -11.5✓ | @UConn | W 38–14 130 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #65 | #43 | +2.5✗ | Virginia Tech | L 26–35 139 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #61 | #49 | +1 | UCLA | |||
| 5 | Oct 3 | #57 | #33 | @Nebraska | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Ohio State | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Rutgers | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Illinois | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Purdue | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Wisconsin | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @USC | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Penn State |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Virginia Tech | L 26–35 | 423 | 0 | 23:21 | +0.313 | 51.5% | 119.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | @UConn | W 38–14 | 475 | 0 | 35:31 | +0.239 | 46.8% | 131.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 6 | Hampton | W 62–0 | 646 | 0 | 29:03 | +0.504 | 59.5% | 124.2% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (3 games) | 515 | 0.0 | +0.352 | 52.6% | 125.2% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Maryland has the most striking identity in college football — the state flag stitched into the jersey — and a team that keeps coming up short of letting the look mean what it could.
Standard GapA pro-tier visual brand and DMV recruiting turf vs a 4-8, 1-8 Big Ten…
The fanbase watches the same DMV recruits it should own get pulled away by Ohio State and Penn State and Michigan, then sees those programs run the league — the sense that Maryland is a supplier to…
moderate signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Maryland fans
Virginia Tech fans on Maryland
Maryland fans
UConn fans on Maryland
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 4-8 · last season
Game feel50even gamescombined pts / game12th highest-scoring of 18 in the Big Ten
Heart rate0-3some dramain one-score games (3 of 12)11th most one-score games of 18 in the Big Ten
Margin-3.0competitiveavg scoring margin13th best margin of 18 in the Big Ten
Tempo66uptempooffensive plays / game2nd fastest of 18 in the Big Ten
Big plays1.32highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)3rd most explosive of 18 in the Big Ten
Home crowd40,765avg attendance16th biggest crowds of 18 in the Big Ten
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Big Ten teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Maryland has won two of its last five.
Cooling. 2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 2-8
Going into this game, there were no indications for me that we would play defense the way we played in terms of not being able to get off the field or stop the run
The forecast
Next Sep 26
vs UCLA · at home
Season line5.5 winsover -130
ElitePass-first, spreadSolid
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total2 booksO/U 5.5▲1 since Sep 2026
CFP championship#76 in field+100000
Big Ten title#14 in market+20000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-22
Maryland · the story right now
8 storylines developing
What Maryland's season is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
underdog2025 cycle✓ factnew
Shaleak Knotts produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
garbage time2025 cycle~attributednew
DeJuan Williams does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Dorian Fleming is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Jalil Farooq is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Kaleb Webb is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Shaleak Knotts is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Maryland enters 2026 — the 75th-ranked SP+ jump is real, but bottom-quintile returning production and a 4-8 record raise the question of whether this is a step forward or another.
what happenedMaryland enters 2026 rated No. 75 in 2025 SP+ (+0.6), up 11 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downMaryland's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedMaryland's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Outcome band · Maryland · 2026
Outcome band · Maryland · 2026Maryland's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Rival pulse
Rutgers
Mixed+3
Maryland-Rutgers
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Maryland is the program with the most beautiful uniforms in CFB and the eternally rebuilding football team underneath.
Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Solid
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Maryland
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-22Returning Production54%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#46 nationally247 composite 719.6
Portal Additions14Primary repair: DL
Portal Losses16Primary pressure: CB
Draft Loss1NFL Draft departures (1)
Recruiting Reload#43Development class
DLin 4 - Lavon Johnsonout 3 - Dillan FontusUpgrade
current room: 289 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Nose Anchor2024 profilecontrols the point of attack and doesn't move
CBin 1 - Amari Jacksonout 3 - Braydon LeeStarter Risk
current room: 191 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Centerfielder2024 profileerases the deep middle of the field
WRin 2 - Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladdingout 1 - Jahmari Powell-WonsonUpgrade
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Possession ReceiverBoom-or-bustmoves the chains on third down his yards come in chunks — feast or famine
Full roster (109 players)
UNKStephen Dean
DBAlex Moore, Amari Jackson, Darrell Carey, Dontay Joyner, Gavin Edwards, Hakim Satterwhite, Jamare Glasker, Jayden Shipps, Judah Jenkins, Lavain Scruggs, Lloyd Irvin III, Mekhai White, Messiah Delhomme, Ontario Washington Jr., Ricardo Cooper Jr., Sean Johnson, Taylor Best, Zahir Cobb
DLArmon Parker, Bryce Jenkins, Cam Brickle II, DD Holmes, Delmar White, Derrick LeBlanc, Edwin Moore Jr., Eyan Thomas, JaMarcus Whyce, Jayvon Parker, Jianni Davis, Joel Starlings, Joshua Simmons, Lavon Johnson, Nahsir Taylor, Sidney Stewart, Zahir Mathis, Zion Elee
LBCarlton Smith, Chris Wells, Daniel Wingate, Darius Grimes, Jordan Williams, Kaden Carter, Kellen McConnell, Keyari James, Travares Daniels Ii, Trey Reddick
OLAaron Folivi, Amory Hills, Anthony Robsock, Ben Beymer, Carlos Moore, Davon Watkins, Day'Jon Moore, Isaiah Wright, Jaylen Gilchrist, Jesse Moody, Jonathan Panagou, Lamar Williams, Logan Bennett, Michael Hershey, Michael McMonigle, Rahtrel Perry, Ryan Howerton, Teagan Cox, Tellek Lockette, Trevor Szymanski
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Maryland
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Maryland DE Zahir Mathis out for season
Mathis was Maryland's best pass-rush prospect and now he's gone before he played a snap — a D-line room that was already thin on developed edge talent just lost its highest-ceiling piece heading into Big Ten play.
- News
Maryland CB sentenced to probation
Probation, not prison — but a CB room already flagged for depth issues doesn't need any more uncertainty hanging over its roster heading into Big Ten play.
- Portal
QB Cardell Williams transfer commits from Sacramento State
Six portal QBs cycled through and Justyn Martin walked out the door — Williams arrives from the Big Sky with starting tape Locksley can actually build a spring depth chart around.
- News
Win total: 4.5 → 5.5 (▲1)
The 4.5 to 5.5 move confirmed what was already public — the market repriced after the news landed.
- News
Maryland receiver suspended indefinitely
Locksley's receiver room takes a hit right before Hampton week — depth at wideout was already thin after one draft departure, and an indefinite suspension doesn't pair well with a top-25 class trying to prove the Big Ten revival is real.
- Portal
RB Terrez Worthy transfer commits from Temple
Four departed, four added — but Nolan Ray's carries don't replace themselves, and Worthy's AAC tape shows a back who earned touches in a real conference, not a depth chart placeholder.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-5.0 net portal points
(raw ledger: -7.7 — unweighted, no position adjustment)CB-7.3
starter risk
WR+3.7
DL+3.5
EDGE-3.5
low confidence
S-3.2
low confidence
IOL-0.7
LB-0.5
QB-0.3
TE+0.3
RB+0.2
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★★
Zion Elee
#5 national
★★★★☆
Darrell Carey
#484 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Kaden Carter
#554 national
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
20
MD · 7VA · 3DC · 2OH · 2FL · 1GA · 1MA · 1NJ · 1+2 more
MD leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
91 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. MD leads the pull.
That is 16.8% of every high-school FBS signee MD produced over those cycles — the biggest share any program takes — Temple is next. The full map →
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Maryland player grew up 73 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
1st-closest to home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%17–290 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi54%54 of 100 players
Farthest1,225 miJackson Hamilton · Houston, TX
Closest3 miBryce Jenkins · Hyattsville, MD
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to SECU Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 100 of 109 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
How it turned out
Belief history
↓
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
20th percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market≈
20th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
5.5
Vegas O/U wins
(26th among FBS)
(26th among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 2 books
Penalties
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 19 penalties committed vs. 26 drawn on opponents, a 37-yard edge.
171 penalty yards committed vs. 208 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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