4Maryland's fanbase shift signals ACC identity evolution.
Mike Locksley enters his 6th season at Maryland with a 4-8 losing record, underscoring the ongoing challenge of transforming the program's identity beyond its iconic uniforms.
4Mike Locksley enters his 6th season at Maryland with a 4-8 losing record, underscoring the ongoing challenge of transforming the program's identity beyond its iconic uniforms.
Maryland has the most striking identity in college football — the state flag stitched into the jersey — and a team that keeps coming up short of letting the look mean what it could.
The fanbase watches the same DMV recruits it should own get pulled away by Ohio State and Penn State and Michigan, then sees those programs run the league — the sense that Maryland is a supplier to th…
Approaching
31 days
until kickoff · vs Hampton · Sun Sep 6 · 00:00 UTC
Maryland is the program with the most beautiful uniforms in CFB and the eternally rebuilding football team underneath.
Maryland faces a high-volatility season with only 13% of its roster returning and significant portal churn, but its balanced transfer activity and development class may provide enough depth to reach a bowl game.
Testudo is watching.
the open questiondoes the recruiting haul translate on the field?
Malik Washington's arrival at quarterback marks Maryland's first top-25 class in three years — but with 13% production returning and a 4-8 record, Locksley's rebuild is still a long way from the uniforms' polish.
Mike Locksley enters his 7th season with a 4-8 losing record, facing the challenge of proving Maryland's rebuilding phase can yield more than fleeting confidence.
Mike Locksley enters his 7th season with a 4-8 losing record and a #52 talent rank, raising the question of whether this rebuild can finally translate to more than 5.5 wins.
Octavian Smith Jr. produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
Shaleak Knotts produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
DeJuan Williams does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Dorian Fleming is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Jalil Farooq is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Kaleb Webb is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Shaleak Knotts is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Maryland enters 2026 — the 75th-ranked SP+ jump is real, but bottom-quintile returning production and a 4-8 record raise the question of whether this is a step forward or another.
Mike Locksley enters his 6th season at Maryland with a 4-8 losing record, underscoring the ongoing challenge of transforming the program's identity beyond its iconic uniforms.
Maryland: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
Maryland CB sentenced to probation
Probation, not prison — but a CB room already flagged for depth issues doesn't need any more uncertainty hanging over its roster heading into Big Ten play.
QB Cardell Williams transfer commits from Sacramento State
Six portal QBs cycled through and Justyn Martin walked out the door — Williams arrives from the Big Sky with starting tape Locksley can actually build a spring depth chart around.
Win total: 4.5 → 5.5 (▲1)
Books moved up from 4.5 to 5.5 before any public announcement — a market signal ahead of the news cycle.
RB Terrez Worthy transfer commits from Temple
Four departed, four added — but Nolan Ray's carries don't replace themselves, and Worthy's AAC tape shows a back who earned touches in a real conference, not a depth chart placeholder.
LB Stephen Dean III transfer commits from VMI
LB room lost Harris and two others — Dean is the FCS-to-Big Ten leap Locksley needed to stop the bleeding at linebacker before fall camp opens.
DE Dallas Pauldo commits to Maryland
Locksley's beating southern programs to four-stars now — Pauldo at DE is the kind of win that makes a top-25 class feel like it has a ceiling higher than #25.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence higher than any point since 2025
94th percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Maryland · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Maryland signed a top-25 recruiting class. It is first top-25 recruiting class since 2021. A class in the top 25 means the program competed nationally. Attrition and development are the next story. National coverage is split on what the ranking actually signals for this program.
The optimistic read: the class is real, the program is a destination again.
The 'rankings don't tell the whole story' counter -- development gaps, position holes still open.
Only 4 of 105 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
Board health this week (119 posts): 25% positive · 57% neutral · 18% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Maryland: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 22 of 105 board posts (21%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
Board health this week (119 posts): 25% positive · 57% neutral · 18% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Zero of five. Reset territory.
Opens Sep 6
vs Hampton · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
MD leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
91 signees across 14 states, 2023-2026. MD leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
11 games with TV coverage: 2 national broadcast, 4 cable, 5 conference network
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 6 afternoon, 3 primetime
Recovering 0% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
0 of 5 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Converting 37% of pass disruptions into takeaways — well above the ~19% league rate.
18 interceptions of 49 disrupted passes (31 deflected, 18 intercepted), 2025 only.
Losing the penalty battle: 72 penalties committed vs. 60 drawn on opponents, a 163-yard deficit.
669 penalty yards committed vs. 506 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 6 corners
The split, staged
How Maryland fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
I'm still dumbfounded how these ads recoup their money. Like there's that many people out there that are going to get a Sapphire card now because they saw it on OSUs jersey?
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 6 corners of the fanbase
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readMaryland fans are cautiously optimistic, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
✓ counted We read 119 posts from Maryland fans this week.
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
Mathis, Williams, and Malik stick with us for another year when we get Zion and get a WR in the transfer portal and I can see us being ranked at some point next year.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 30, 2025 · via CFB
Holy fucking shit i’m so tired of these Locksley teams and their fucking penalties
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 30, 2025 · via CFB
“Weird game all around. Lot of ref mistakes both ways, and turnovers controlled the game”— r/CFB
“Maryland football is terrorism and it needs to be stopped. I cannot deal with this team year in and year out”— r/CFB
“Another sloppy, B- type of performance. You simply can't let a team like Towson outscore you 17-3 on offense in the second half, backups or not. We'll see how this team fares in conference. On to Madison.”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Fanbase Health Index · Maryland · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.22 EPA/play | 7 | 12 | 273 / 473 | 57.7 | 2963 #39 FBS | 6.3 | 17 #57 FBS | 9 | 118.4 | 58.6 | 5.9 | 1.7 | |
Yards by week → Scrambler· Money-downMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. saves his best for the money downs Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 45 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush usage10.4% bottom 14th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry5.8 94th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like Aura Tax — perception-vs-production gap across 3 tracked snapshots, 53 mentions | |||||||||||||
| +1.15 EPA/play | 12 | 5 | 11 / 17 | 64.7 | 105 | 6.2 | 1 | 0 | 136.0 | 42.4 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.05 EPA/play | 20 | 12 | 128 | 501 | 3.9 | 3 | 40 | 17.3 | 16.7 | 19.7 | 10.2 | 13.6% (61/450) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share26.0% 99th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.4 bottom 12th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View DeJuan Williams's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.04 EPA/play | 25 | 12 | 67 | 289 | 4.3 | 2 | 53 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 17.9 | 9.0 | 4.7% (21/450) | |
Yards by week → Balanced BackPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 21th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception4.5 bottom 17th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nolan Ray's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.35 EPA/play | 24 | 10 | 39 | 125 | 3.2 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3.9 | — | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.51 EPA/play | 4 | 11 | 44 | 717 | 16.3 | 6 #62 FBS | 62 | 17.3 | 15.9 | 17.8% (80/450) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception16.8 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 4th percentile to the 81st among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 58 | 545 | 9.4 | 4 | 29 | 11 | 11.9 | 16.4% (74/450) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.2 bottom 19th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume58 90th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jalil Farooq's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.27 EPA/play | 5 | 12 | 43 | 529 | 12.3 | 0 | 53 | 11.6 | 14.9 | 17.3% (78/450) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.2 bottom 48th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Octavian Smith Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.04 EPA/play | 9 | 11 | 40 | 351 | 8.8 | 3 | 48 | 11.9 | 10.5 | 14.4% (65/450) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.1 bottom 28th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume40 93th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dorian Fleming's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.56 EPA/play | 84 | 11 | 22 | 318 | 14.5 | 2 | 29 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 7.8% (35/450) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.3 bottom 47th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume22 bottom 25th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kaleb Webb's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.20 EPA/play | 89 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 1 | 21 | 1.2 | 1.6 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 9 | 35 | 22 | 8.5 | 6 #74 FBS | 3 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate24.3% 85th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Zahir Mathis's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 10 | 12 | 33 | 15 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Cam Rice's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 29 | 12 | 32 | 20 | 10.5 | 7 #39 FBS | 7 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate32.8% 97th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Sidney Stewart's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 46 | 12 | 27 | 13 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.0% bottom 43th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 14th to 80th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 98 | 11 | 27 | 12 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight328 lb 94th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 40 | 9 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.8% 55th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Nahsir Taylor's full player page | |||||||
| 56 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 57 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 50 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 44 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 91 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 1 | 12 | 102 | 62 | 40 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 84th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume102 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 0th to 35th to 84th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 32 | 12 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.3% bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carlton Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 3 | 11 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate3.8% 66th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 20th to 60th percentile among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 23 | 11 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.8 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Keyshawn Flowers's full player page | |||||||||
| 31 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 48 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 22 | 12 | 72 | 2 | 4 #23 FBS | 1.5 | 0 |
Rover· Takeaway threatHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 83 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate2.8% bottom 24th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 72nd percentile among FBS Ss to the 92nd | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 13 | 12 | 64 | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.7% bottom 33th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 45th percentile among FBS Ss to the 76th | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 6 | 12 | 40 | 8 #45 FBS | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Dontay Joyner's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 33 | 11 | 39 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.7% bottom 49th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Messiah Delhomme's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 10 | 32 | 6 | 4 #23 FBS | 6 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.8% 93th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 7th to 63rd to 96th percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 27 | 10 | 21 | 0 | 3 #56 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid Nickel· Takeaway threatMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2024 class View La'khi Roland's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 7 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 66th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Braydon Lee's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 7 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 4-star, 2024 class View Kevyn Humes's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 9 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 7 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automatic | 36 | 12 | 21/24 | 87.5 | 29/29 | 92 | 49 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 34 | 12 | 56 | 2473 | 44.2 | 62 | 19 | 8 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.35 EPA/play | 24 | 10 | 7 | 108 | 15.4 | 0 | 27 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 6 | 46 | 7.7 | 0 | 20 |
| 17 | 3 | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 | 9 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+18 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #100 | #158 | -12.5 | Florida Atlantic | W 39–7 171 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 5 | #117 | #133 | -16.5 | Northern Illinois | W 20–9 134 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #106 | #153 | -28.5 | Towson | W 44–17 71 | 3-0 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #97 | #54 | +10.5 | @Wisconsin | W 27–10 134 | 4-0 | 1-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #75 | #38 | +5.5 | Washington | L 20–24 145 | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #72 | #37 | +6.5 | Nebraska | L 31–34 125 | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #73 | #67 | +4.5 | @UCLA | L 17–20 144 | 4-3 | 1-3 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #74 | #4 | +21 | Indiana | L 10–55 125 | 4-4 | 1-4 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #83 | #86 | +1.5 | @Rutgers | L 20–35 126 | 4-5 | 1-5 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #97 | #40 | +16.5 | @Illinois | L 6–24 137 | 4-6 | 1-6 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #100 | #23 | +14 | Michigan | L 20–45 141 | 4-7 | 1-7 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #109 | #80 | +4 | Michigan State (N) | L 28–38 147 | 4-8 | 1-8 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 | Michigan State | L 28–38 | 534 | 1 | 28:16 | +0.347 | 44.7% | 142.8% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 22 | Michigan | L 20–45 | 347 | 1 | 24:22 | +0.155 | 38.2% | 136.5% | |
| Nov 15 | @Illinois | L 6–24 | 293 | 1 | 24:03 | -0.067 | 43.3% | 91.4% | |
| Nov 8 | @Rutgers | L 20–35 | 403 | 1 | 25:02 | +0.251 | 37.3% | 150.6% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 1 | Indiana | L 10–55 | 293 | 5 | 19:38 | -0.256 | 27.1% | 178.1% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 18 | @UCLA | L 17–20 | 337 | 2 | 26:58 | +0.039 | 34.2% | 137.3% | One-score loss |
| Oct 11 | Nebraska | L 31–34 | 379 | 0 | 31:27 | +0.198 | 42.4% | 115.9% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | Washington | L 20–24 | 274 | 1 | 29:01 | +0.122 | 39.1% | 126.5% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @Wisconsin | W 27–10 | 326 | 0 | 22:53 | +0.151 | 35.1% | 136.1% | |
| Sep 13 | Towson | W 44–17 | 428 | 1 | 36:06 | +0.313 | 45.1% | 129.9% | Best success rate |
| Sep 5 | Northern Illinois | W 20–9 | 340 | 1 | 26:25 | -0.037 | 41.5% | 113.7% | |
| Aug 30 | Florida Atlantic | W 39–7 | 380 | 0 | 29:34 | +0.038 | 32.5% | 124.2% | Blowout win |
| Season average (12 games) | 361 | 1.2 | +0.104 | 38.4% | 131.9% | ||||
Maryland fields a limited pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a strong defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
30th percentile quality, 74th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 4th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 7th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
11th percentile success on standard downs, 86th on passing downs — a 75-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 52nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 15th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.10; 42nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 7: 0.13 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Maryland reads strongest in explosive plays (top 27%) and passing epa allowed (top 38%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where Maryland sits at the 9th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Maryland
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Maryland · 2018-present
51% home win rate vs 31% on the road. margin runs +11.7 better at home. SECU Stadium seats 51,802, averaging 72% full (37,263 attendance, 28 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
DeJuan Williams and Nolan Ray split the carries (128/195 vs 67/195) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Octavian Smith Jr. (WR) and Dorian Fleming (TE) split the targets (78/141 vs 63/141) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Dorian Fleming is the one who gets the ball in the red zone.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 9 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Maryland’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.8% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 95-play sample) — mid-pack, 103 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
64°F average kickoff temp; 5% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 73 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Maryland's 2014–2025 record is 60-81. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
since 1902 · 119 seasons · .501 win rate
Maryland has the most recognizable uniform in college football — the state flag stitched into every jersey, black and gold and red and white in the boldest quadrant pattern in the sport. The team underneath went 4-8 last year. Freshman quarterback Malik Washington threw for 2,963 yards, broke the program's freshman passing record, and decided to stay. That's the whole offseason.
The DMV is one of the richest recruiting territories in the Big Ten footprint. Maryland sits in the middle of it — a land-grant flagship in College Park, forty minutes from Washington, drawing off the same Mid-Atlantic skill talent that Ohio State and Penn State and Michigan pull into their pipelines. The visual identity has been studied as a design landmark by people who don't follow the team. Fear the Turtle. The look is real. The program the look is attached to has spent most of the last decade near the bottom of the league it moved to in 2014.
Mike Locksley's seventh season ended at 4-8, 1-8 in the Big Ten — the kind of record that ends tenures at most programs. Locksley returns for year eight. The case for patience rests almost entirely on Washington: a true freshman who broke the program passing record, absorbed the offense, and announced he's coming back for 2026 rather than entering the portal. The case against is the same record it's always been — four mostly losing seasons in the Big Ten and a talent base that keeps producing better players for other schools than for Maryland.
The 2026 question in College Park is whether a young quarterback and a program identity that genuinely outruns its results can produce a winning Big Ten record for the first time since Locksley's first year. The schedule is not forgiving. Washington has to make a second-year leap in a league where second-year leaps are the difference between a bowl team and another winter at home. The DMV fanbase is watching; the recruits are watching. The look has never been the problem.
Maryland's offense under Locksley is built on Mid-Atlantic speed — wide-receiver and running-back talent from the DMV pipeline run through a spread base with pro-style elements. Washington's arm talent and mobility give the offense a dual-threat dimension it hasn't had in years. The defense has been inconsistent; the 2026 line corps rebuild is the unit to watch. SECU Stadium in College Park has genuine atmosphere for marquee Big Ten visitors. The visual identity — the state flag uniforms — remains the program's most distinctive asset and its most loaded promise.
Maryland 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.05 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Maryland: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
Big Ten Standing · 2025
Maryland is 16th of 18 in the Big Ten at 1-8. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Indiana | 11-0 |
| 2 | Ohio State | 9-1 |
| 3 | Oregon | 8-2 |
| 4 | Michigan | 7-2 |
| 5 | USC | 7-2 |
| 6 | Iowa | 6-3 |
| 7 | Illinois | 5-4 |
| 8 | Minnesota | 5-4 |
| 9 | Washington | 5-4 |
| 10 | Nebraska | 4-5 |
| 11 | Northwestern | 4-5 |
| 12 | Penn State | 3-6 |
| 13 | UCLA | 3-6 |
| 14 | Rutgers | 2-7 |
| 15 | Wisconsin | 2-7 |
| 16 | Maryland | 1-8 |
| 17 | Michigan State | 1-8 |
| 18 | Purdue | 0-9 |
Coaching Era · Maryland
Mike Locksley has held the program for 7 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 2011
Maryland football has worn the most variations of state-flag-themed uniforms in CFB. The Maryland state flag's heraldic checkerboard pattern translates to football jerseys, helmets, and pants in ways no other state's flag could. The uniforms are the program's most-photographed asset; Twitter screenshot ratio favors the uniforms over the actual football.
since 1933
Testudo, the bronze terrapin statue (1933), sits in front of McKeldin Library. Students rub his nose for finals luck. The statue has been stolen by rivals and reclaimed; he wears a helmet during game weeks. Cultural anchor that predates the football program's modern peaks.
since 1990s
Origin: 1990s lacrosse program (lax is Maryland's actual dynasty sport). Football adopted it; basketball adopted it. The slogan is the spiritual umbrella for every Terrapin athletic program. Easier to say than 'Terrapins'; meaner than the actual animal is.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Maryland's lone national title under Jim Tatum
Friedgen's first year delivers an ACC title and a BCS bowl berth
2014
Maryland leaves the ACC for the Big Ten — financial security, but severed rivalries and a tougher ceiling
Heartbreak
Moment of the Year · Maryland · 2025
Week 10 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2023 — win 31-13 (home). Last 5 postseason: 3-2.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–202616 picks last 5 cycles. 1 first-round picks. Recruits with NFL ambitions notice.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Clint Trickett — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes