The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Mike Locksley

Followed Matt Canada. Mike Locksley moved Maryland from Regional Program I to National Program III in 8 seasons.

The ascent
38–70
2009–now · 2 stints
← all coaches

In his own words

That’s too big of a picture for me to worry about. I’m more concerned about week one
Hopefully he’ll get back to focusing on school and football.
The Diamondback3 days before the opener
We feel like Dontay has a support system here at Maryland, which is us, and being here is the best thing for him
The Diamondback3 days before the opener
That wasn’t a coach Locks decision. I take credit in that I could have shut it down, but here’s an example of when the Malik Washingtons and the Daniel Wingates of the world come and knock on the door
The Diamondback3 days before the opener
The difference is, for this year, is that we have a returning star
The Diamondback
This is a trench league
The Diamondback
He’s been through quite a bit here, and this summer really was not a good thing for him, not a good thing for us
Testudotimes
We both decided mutually that he needs a fresh start
The Diamondback
He’s a guy that deserves another chance
The Diamondback

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 8th career season — faster than 7% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #617 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

New Mexico, 3 seasons
−15.4
Regional Program II → Regional Program IV.
Maryland, 8 seasons (active)
+4.1
Regional Program I → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%60%Maryland2019–2026▲ 6.7pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Maryland17.2pt#25 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–5 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Jim Harbaugh.

Rivalry record
3–5
37.5% · 2 rivals
One-score games
12–15
44.4% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–5
0.0%
Buyout owed
$13,395,417
bigger than 64% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Rutgers3–350%
The toughest matchup
vs. Jim Harbaugh0–4
4 meetings, 2019–2023
’19 L’21 L’22 L · blew a 3-pt lead’23 L · blew a 3-pt lead
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–5 0.0%
Power Program
5–25 16.7%
National Program
8–16 33.3%
Regional Program
17–16 51.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.39
#277 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.04
#120 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Mike Locksley failed to win enough games

He is statistically one of the WORST head coaches in FOOTBALL history. Maryland will NEVER win as long as they refuse to acknowledge that hiring Mike Loxley was a HUGE mistake.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 3, 2026 · via MarylandAthletics

Show all 2
officiatingOne fan's take that season

One fan believes Mike Locksley's teams frequently commit penalties

Holy fucking shit i’m so tired of these Locksley teams and their fucking penalties

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Aug 30, 2025 · via CFB

Coaching career

2019–now
Marylandcaretaker
Regional Program I → National Program III
Mike Locksley moved Maryland from Regional Program I to National Program III in 8 seasons.

11th-best Maryland tenure of 21 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-23.3 pts
#183 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-2.4 pts
#117 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Matt Canada (2018–2018).

Season20192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record3–92–37–68–58–54–84–80–0
PostseasonW bowlW bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#47#31#19#31#36#39#25#43
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.651.552.748.755.557.161.851.3
Coordinators
OCScottie MontgomeryScottie MontgomeryDan EnosDan Enos / Mike MillerKevin Sumlin / Josh GattisKevin Sumlin / Josh GattisPep HamiltonClint Trickett
DCJon HokeJon HokeBrian StewartBrian WilliamsBrian WilliamsAazaar Abdul-Rahim / Brian WilliamsAazaar Abdul-Rahim / Ted MonachinoAazaar Abdul-Rahim / Ted Monachino
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense526534757152579
Defense3849298785434292
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%42.553.753.150.758.354.958.058.3
Red-zone pass%49.254.540.250.846.852.658.340.0
4th-down go%opp. territory50.06.730.640.034.252.333.3
Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals
54
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
124
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-70
#135 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 251 lbs
across 47 of 54 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+10.9 lbs
#2 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Jr
#137 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: MD (12), FL (10), VA (5), PA (4), GA (4)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
59.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
60.0
position-weighted
Net
-0.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Justyn Martin (QB) from UCLA
Biggest loss: Billy Edwards Jr. (QB) to Wisconsin
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Scottie Montgomery → Dan Enos · 2021
26th pct53rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 53.7% → 53.1% (-0.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 65% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Dan Enos → Dan Enos / co-Mike Miller · 2022
53rd pct47th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 53.1% → 50.7% (-2.4 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 71% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Dan Enos / co-Mike Miller → co-Kevin Sumlin / Josh Gattis · 2023
47th pct57th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 50.7% → 58.3% (+7.6 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 78% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: co-Kevin Sumlin / Josh Gattis → Pep Hamilton · 2025
15th pct25th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 54.9% → 58.0% (+3.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 13% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Pep Hamilton → Clint Trickett · 2026
25th pct79th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 58.0% → 58.3% (+0.3 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 54% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Jon Hoke → Brian Stewart · 2021
49th pct29th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Brian Stewart → Brian Williams · 2022
29th pct87th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Brian Williams → co-Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Brian Williams · 2024
85th pct43rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: co-Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Brian Williams → co-Aazaar Abdul-Rahim / Ted Monachino · 2025
43rd pct42nd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
216 lbs
6′1″ avg · #301 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
213 lbs
6′0″ avg · #171 of 791 · more than most
Wide receiver
195 lbs
6′2″ avg · #315 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
237 lbs
6′3″ avg · #639 of 731 · less than most
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
314 lbs
6′5″ avg · #199 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
291 lbs
6′3″ avg · #227 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
230 lbs
6′2″ avg · #281 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
194 lbs
6′1″ avg · #166 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
85%
#158 of 188 stints
Grows Safety from high school
81%
#183 of 218 stints
Postseason detail2021: Beat Virginia Tech 54–10 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2022: Beat NC State 16–12 Duke's Mayo Bowl2023: Beat Auburn 31–13 TransPerfect Music City Bowl

23 NFL Draft picks: Darnell Savage Jr. (2019), Byron Cowart (2019), Ty Johnson (2019), Derwin Gray (2019), Anthony McFarland Jr. (2020), Antoine Brooks Jr. (2020), Jake Funk (2021), Nick Cross (2022) + 15 more

36–44
2009–2011
New Mexicodeclinerborderline
Regional Program I → Regional Program II
New Mexico fell from Regional Program I to Regional Program IV under Mike Locksley.

7th-best New Mexico tenure of 22 by the numbers.

Followed Rocky Long (1998–2008) · succeeded by Bob Davie (2012–2019).

Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Glover Quin (2009), DeAndre Wright (2009), Erik Cook (2010)

2–26
How to read this. Bands and archetypes come from the Zeitgeist List’s season-by-season stature model, and only apply once a stint clears 3 coached seasons in our ledger — a newer stint shows its real record with no stature judgment yet.