CFB Zeitgeist Score
47
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 65th percentile.
Octavian Smith Jr.
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
529 REC YDS · 43 REC · 0 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Maryland for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Maryland
Returning around him
- 13% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 1 Maryland player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -1 net (15 in / 16 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Maryland · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #52 · 2026 recruiting class #25
WR · MARYLAND · BIG TEN
Octavian Smith Jr.
- 4
- #5
- 6-0 | 182 lb
- Burtonsville, MD
Heisman Heat
#593
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2022–2025+237%
Up 237% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Maryland
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4-star | 0.8990 | No. 332 recruit | HighSchool | Maryland |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Maryland
Composite
0.8990
#332 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Octavian Smith Jr.
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Octavian Smith Jr.
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
12.3
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #271 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 49th
Why it matters
#271 of 531 All FBS WRs at 12.3 yards per reception (43 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 12.3 (49th)
HIGH · n=43 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#189 / 531
- Receiving TDs#476 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 4 at Wisconsin — 113 ypr
Result W 27-10
The week the volume broke through — put up 113 yds at Wisconsin.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
529Rec yards
43Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
44.1Rec yards
4Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
573.1Rec yards
47Receptions
0Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 529): needs 171/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 529): needs 471/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 43): needs 17/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 43): needs 37/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 8/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 10/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Octavian Smith Jr.'s story is about how role and output meet each other. For Maryland, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
43 85th
YDS
529 83rd
YPR
12.3 53rd
TD
0 45th
Rushing
CAR
4 74th
YDS
22 69th
YPC
5.5 62nd
TD
0 81st
Returns
PR YDS
19 33rd
PR AVG
9.5 64th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 39-7vs Florida Atlantic | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 2 | W 20-9vs Northern Illinois | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 3 | W 44-17vs Towson | 4 | 103 | 25.8 | 0 | 53 | |
| Wk 4 | W 27-10@ Wisconsin | 6 | 113 | 18.8 | 0 | 48 | Season-high 113 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 20-24vs Washington | 3 | 57 | 19.0 | 0 | 29 | |
| Wk 7 | L 31-34vs Nebraska | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 | 19 | |
| Wk 8 | L 17-20@ UCLA | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 10 | L 10-55vs Indiana | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 11 | L 20-35@ Rutgers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 12 | L 6-24@ Illinois | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 13 | L 20-45vs Michigan | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 14 | L 28-38@ Michigan State | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 15 | |
| Total | 43 | 529 | 11.6 | 0 | 53 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Maryland8-5HC: Mike Locksley · Balanced
2023Maryland8-5HC: Mike Locksley · Pass-leaning
2024Maryland4-8HC: Mike Locksley · Pass-leaning
2025Maryland4-8HC: Mike Locksley · Pass-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 43 | #166/1110 | 85th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 529 | #194/1107 | 83rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #615/1111 | 45th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 12.3 | #517/1106 | 53rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt return yards | 19 | #152/224 | 33rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 16.1% | #197/1137 | 83rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 22 | #126/397 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 11 | #156/346 | 55th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 5.5 | #150/393 | 62nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 4 | #108/407 | 74th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 53 | #236/1105 | 79th pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt return avg | 9.5 | #81/222 | 64th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Punt returns | 2 | #156/237 | 35th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 14.9% | #49/1137 | 96th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 11.6% | #147/1137 | 87th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 11.3% | #73/1137 | 94th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 10.3% | #88/1137 | 92nd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 8.8% | #136/1137 | 88th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 7.9% | #157/1137 | 86th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 1.0% | #195/1137 | 83rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #131/302 | 57th pct | Turnoversvs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 3.4 | 46.3 | 13.0 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 3.8 | 41.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 4.0 | 66.8 | 15.4 | 0.0 |
| Losses8g | 3.4 | 32.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 3.7 | 59.8 | 15.4 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 3.5 | 28.3 | 7.9 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
47Mid-pack
Concern: rec tds (6th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Octavian Smith Jr.MarylandJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 85% simKevin Coleman Jr.Missouri· 83% simLewis BondBoston College· 78% sim
Receptions
Rec yards
Rush yards
Long catch
Yards / catch
Rush TDs
Fumbles lost
Rec TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Gabriel Rogers’s 2022 season.
Gabriel Rogers
80%match
#2
Kobe Drake
80%
#3
Terrill Davis
80%
#4
George Johnson III
79%
#5
Drew Estrada
78%
Matches Gabriel on
Yards / reception
Weight
EPA / play (adj)
Differs from Gabriel on
Class year (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Ryan Flournoy’s path through Southeast Missouri State.
Ryan Flournoy
99%match
NFL Rd 6
#2
Anthony Lowe
98%
#3
Ian Duarte
97%
#4
Demarcus Lacey
96%
#5
Ma'jon Wright
95%
Matches Ryan on
Yards per reception
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Kobe Paysour's senior season at North Carolina (2025).
Kobe Paysour
82%match
#2
RJ Garcia II
81%
#3
Vinny Anthony
81%
#4
Jimmy Calloway
78%
#5
Latrell Caples
All-Mountain West
76%
Matches Kobe on
Weight
Height
Reception volume
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Locksley
Pass share
61.9%
491 pass / 302 run
Plays / game
66.1
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
2.3%
383 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Mike Locksley
Maryland
2023
Mike Locksley
Maryland
2024
Mike Locksley
Maryland
2025
Mike Locksley
Maryland
Played his entire career under Mike Locksley.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownBurtonsville, MD
Height6'0"
Weight182 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey5
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMaryland
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Maryland | Big Ten | WR | 4 | No. 5 | 6-0 | 182 lb | Burtonsville, MD |
| 2024 | Maryland | Big Ten | WR | 4 | No. 5 | 6-0 | 182 lb | Burtonsville, MD |
| 2023 | Maryland | Big Ten | WR | 4 | No. 5 | 6-0 | 182 lb | Burtonsville, MD |
| 2022 | Maryland | Big Ten | WR | 4 | No. 5 | 6-0 | 182 lb | Burtonsville, MD |