4recruiting class
North Carolina signed a top-19 recruiting class.
Bill Belichick's first class at North Carolina is a top-3 haul in the ACC — but with 16% production returning and QB continuity lost, the rebuild is already underway.
North Carolina4-8Latest
The read on North Carolina depends entirely on who you ask.
belief cooled ↓ 7.9vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
50/100 · 161 mentions
~ our readGrounding
backed by facts
11% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 28 pts
~ our readThe model
#110
CFB Zeitgeist · -4.2
✓ measured4Hope-Doping·Offseason
North Carolina is the basketball school that stunned the sport by hiring Bill Belichick — six Super Bowl rings walking into a football program that had never quite committed, and a 4-8 first year that turned a coronation into a spectacle.
Title DroughtSince 1980 · 45 yrs
Fans grew tired of being a national punchline — the basketball school in over its head, the tabloid story, the 4-8 schadenfreude — and want the people enjoying the experiment's stumble to remember it'…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - North Carolina
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production16%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#31 nationally247 composite 753.2
Portal Additions20Primary repair: IOL
Portal Losses31Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#19Top-25 recruiting class
WRin 2 - Trech Kekahunaout 7 - Alex TaylorStarter Risk
current room: 188 lbs avg (2025 roster)
QBin 3 - Miles O'Neillout 3 - Bryce BakerEven
current room: 212 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 1 - Tarvorise Brownout 4 - D'Antre RobinsonStarter Risk
current room: 283 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 2 - Derek McDonaldout 3 - Mikai GbayorDowngrade
current room: 224 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 3 - Jelani Thurmanout 2 - Connor CoxUpgrade
current room: 242 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 2 - Jaylen Harveyout 3 - Tyler ThompsonDowngrade
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc
Approaching
23 days
until kickoff · at TCU · Sat Aug 29 · 16:00 UTC
The experience
North Carolina is the basketball school with a 138-year football program and the patience to keep funding the experiment.
Offense: PoorDefense: SolidDefensive shape: Bend-don't-break
North Carolina's 2026 season hinges on its #25 recruiting class and heavy roster reload
The team enters with a returning player total of 16% and a net portal exporter status, reflecting significant turnover.
- RecruitingNorth Carolina has a #25 recruiting class ranked #19 with a recruiting score of 247.7.
- Roster reloadThe team has a returning player total of 16% and is classified as a net portal exporter with 20 transfers in and 31 out.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
Rameses watches from the pasture.
North Carolina · the story right now
12 storylines developing
What North Carolina's transfer portal class is really about
the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?
portal2025-05-14~readnew
Thaddeus Dixon (CB) and Daniel King (OT) headline a top-2 ACC portal class as Belichick rebuilds nearly everything after a 4-8 season with just 16% production returning.
what happenedNorth Carolina signed a top-9 transfer-portal class — 39 additions headlined by Gio Lopez (QB) from South Alabama and Thaddeus Dixon (CB) from Washington. ✓ fact
the contextthe No. 1 portal class in the ACC this cycle
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
North Carolina collapsed 42 spots in SP+ — the bottom-quintile returning production and 4-8 record raise one question: can Bill Belichick turn a 138-year football experiment into something more than a footnote?
what happenedNorth Carolina enters 2026 rated No. 91 in 2025 SP+ (-6.6), down 42 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
narrative tension · our read
recruitingthis cycle~readnew
Bill Belichick's first class at North Carolina is a top-3 haul in the ACC — but with 16% production returning and QB continuity lost, the rebuild is already underway.
what happenedNorth Carolina signed a top-19 recruiting class. ✓ fact
the contexta top-3 recruiting class in the ACC
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew
Davion Gause sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Jordan Shipp is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Kobe Paysour is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Bill Belichick begins his second season at North Carolina with a 4-8 losing record, raising questions about whether the program's long-term football investment will finally yield results.
what happenedNorth Carolina: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
closerthis cycle~attributednew
Davion Gause gets meaningfully MORE work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict.
narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew
Jordan Shipp is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle~readnew
Bill Belichick, the most-decorated NFL coach in history, steps into his first college job at North Carolina with a 4-8 roster and zero returning QB production.
what happenedBill Belichick took over as North Carolina's head coach, replacing Freddie Kitchens. ✓ fact
the contextreplaces 4-year head coach Mack Brown (31-17)
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
North Carolina: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Bill Belichick begins his tenure at North Carolina with a 4-8 losing record, raising questions about whether a basketball school's patience will hold as the football program seeks reinvention.
what happenedNorth Carolina: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredNorth Carolina's head-coaching hire held for another season.
ReplacedNorth Carolina's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downNorth Carolina's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Active arcs
The Offseason Ledger · North Carolina
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
UNC announces offensive depth chart
Depth chart drops with no QB1 named yet — Belichick's staff is building clarity at every position except the one that matters most, and the WR pressure is real when the guy throwing to them is still TBD.
- News
Gavin Gallaher returns for senior season
WR room flagged as a pressure point all spring — Gallaher staying gives Belichick one known commodity in a unit that can't afford another moving piece during a rebuild year.
- Recruiting
Jet Gibbs commits to South Carolina
Belichick's class sits at #41 nationally, but the WR room had real pressure heading into fall — Gibbs is a development add that starts fixing the depth problem, not just padding the board.
- Recruiting
Davion Jones commits to South Carolina
WR room was already flagged as a pressure point, and losing Jones to the Gamecocks before Belichick's class firms up stings more than the star count suggests.
- Recruiting
Josh Dobson commits to South Carolina
WR pressure was real at Chapel Hill — losing Dobson to the Gamecocks before Belichick's first season even kicks off is a depth hit the #41 class can't fully paper over.
- Recruiting
4-star LB Theo Wilson commits to UNC
A #41 class with a QB room still unsettled needed a linebacker who can anchor the defensive side while Belichick figures out who's taking snaps — Wilson is the kind of chess piece that makes a development class feel less developmental.
Transfer portal snapshot
-3.1 net portal points
(raw ledger: -39.6 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-16.9
starter risk
DL-11.6
starter risk
IOL+7.2
need not filled
OT-7.0
starter risk
LB-4.9
TE+4.0
EDGE-3.6
K+3.5
low confidence
RB-3.5
S-3.4
low confidence
CB-3.4
QB-0.1
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Kenton Dopson
#134 national
★★★★☆
Jakob Weatherspoon
#145 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 13 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★★☆
CJ Sadler
#172 national
↓
Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years
27th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↑
27th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
4.5
Vegas O/U wins
(11th among FBS)
(11th among FBS)
Fans 16pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 4.5
CFP championship#44 in field+37500
ACC title#15 in market+10000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
North Carolina · Next-Season Outcome Band
North Carolina · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 8-5
Ceiling 10-3
floor5-7No postseason.
base8-5Bowl game.
ceiling10-3Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · North Carolina · Transfer portal Confidence
North Carolina's top-9 portal class: the window closed in their favor. The snaps decide who actually matters.
North Carolina signed a top-9 transfer-portal class — 39 additions headlined by Gio Lopez (QB) from South Alabama and Thaddeus Dixon (CB) from Washington. It is the No. 1 portal class in the ACC this cycle. Portal pickups are proven college players — the split isn't about development, it's about whether they fit the scheme and win their position battles. Coverage is split on whether volume or positional fit is the bigger story.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers3 bull takes
🎪 drama: simmering💬 fans: 2% volume · negative overall
Developing1 new this week
4 days agoUNC announces offensive depth chart — Reported
last week5 Offensive Transfers to Watch as UNC Opens Fall Camp — 247Sports
last week5 Defensive Transfers to Watch as UNC Opens Fall Camp — 247Sports
last weekQuarterbacks, transfers and tampering: NC college football coaches weigh in — Raleigh News & Observer
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Gio Lopez QB · South Alabama
“Gio Lopez's Experience at UNC Not Great Look for Belichick” — Sports Illustrated · 2026-05-05
Thaddeus Dixon CB · Washington
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Thaddeus Dixon (CB) and Daniel King (OT) headline a top-2 ACC portal class as Belichick rebuilds nearly everything after a 4-8 season with just 16% production returning.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious question after any portal class isn't who signed — it's who just lost their job. Depth-chart displacement is the untold second chapter: one starter-level arrival means a returning contributor is now competing or transferring out. Watch depth-chart competition in fall camp — that's where portal classes win or lose their billing. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: North Carolina signed a top-9 transfer-portal class — 39 additions headlined by Gio Lopez (QB) from South Alabama and Thaddeus Dixon (CB) from Washington — the No. 1 portal class in the ACC this cycle.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“Reserve RB Sam Williams-Dixon arrested on multiple charges” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“Reserve RB Sam Williams-Dixon arrested on multiple charges”
247Sports · 2026-06-14 · read ↗
📣Believers3 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.›
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
“2027 5-star SG Jordan Page transferring to IMG Academy”
On3 CFB · 2026-07-20 · read ↗
“This UNC Transfer Has the Biggest Breakout Potential”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-06-17 · read ↗
“Where UNC’s Transfer Portal Class Ranks Nationally”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-06-10 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Neoklis Avdalas Makes First Comments on Transfer to UNC, Freshma” — the real counter.›
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
“Neoklis Avdalas Makes First Comments on Transfer to UNC, Freshman Struggles and Michael Malone”
On3 · 2026-07-01 · read ↗
💬The boards5 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (68%).›
Only 5 of 227 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"Haha found this as a great read. Interview with Bennerman's dad got me hyped about him developing into a key piece of frontcourt rotation. "Cade's nickname is Little Wemby," Christ"
r/tarheels ~ fan take
"2026 they were great but had some really bad luck in the final... 2027 they will be even better! They'll be stronger, wiser, and more determined to get what they came so close to w"
r/tarheels ~ fan take
Board health this week (145 posts): 17% positive · 48% neutral · 35% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · North Carolina · Season outlook Confidence
North Carolina's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
North Carolina enters 2026 rated No. 91 in 2025 SP+ (-6.6), down 42 spots from 2024. It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
North Carolina collapsed 42 spots in SP+ — the bottom-quintile returning production and 4-8 record raise one question: can Bill Belichick turn a 138-year football experiment into something more than a footnote?
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: North Carolina enters 2026 rated No. 91 in 2025 SP+ (-6.6), down 42 spots from 2024 — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
🎪The circus“UNC hires outside lawyers to assist with Michael Lombardi invest” — the saga that won't quit.›
The off-field storyline driving the noise right now. Not analysis — the soap opera, and that's the point.
“UNC hires outside lawyers to assist with Michael Lombardi investigation”
WRAL · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
📣Believers1 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“Early Offer Helps Draw Four-Star 2028 CB Domonic Williams Back to UNC”
On3 · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“How The Protect College Sports Act Could Shape UNC's Future Decisions”
247Sports · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
“UNC hires external counsel to investigate GM Michael Lombardi. What we know”
newsobserver.com · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards21% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (68%).›
This event was in 47 of 227 board posts (21%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Carrying this over from TarHeel247. This post got me hyped up. On top sitting pretty for multiple top 2027 recruits, UNC is laying groundwork for even bigger things under Malone mo"
r/tarheels ~ fan take
"Hi all, I have two tickets in the UNC side for the game in Dublin against TCU and unfortunately can't attend. If anyone is interested in these at FV drop me a message. Thanks!"
r/tarheels ~ fan take
Board health this week (145 posts): 17% positive · 48% neutral · 35% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak L3Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 3-7
The forecast
Opens Aug 29
vs TCU · neutral site
Season line4.5 winsover -135
PoorSolidBend-don't-break
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Duke
Hopeful+7
Victory Bell
NC State
Mixed+3
Carolina-State
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
41
NC · 5AL · 4FL · 4NJ · 4MD · 3SC · 3CA · 2GA · 2+11 more
NC leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 19 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
126 signees across 24 states, 2023-2026. NC leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] TCU Defeats North Carolina 48-14
[Postgame Thread] UCF Defeats North Carolina 34-9
[Game Thread] TCU @ North Carolina (8:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
11 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 4 ESPN, 4 conference network, 2 streaming
Kickoff windows: 2 noon, 5 afternoon, 4 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 36% of their own fumbles — running cold vs. the ~51% league rate.
5 of 14 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 15 forced fumbles recovered, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 11% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~19% league rate.
4 interceptions of 37 disrupted passes (33 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
Losing the penalty battle: 79 penalties committed vs. 62 drawn on opponents, a 141-yard deficit.
751 penalty yards committed vs. 610 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on North Carolina
50
Δ -7.9 vs last wk
161
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Tar Heel Born"
— North Carolina fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence2 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 7 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
LLocked On
TTar Heel Blog
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
The split, staged
Warmest corner+0.00
Die-hards
least sour cohort our read
vs
Coldest corner−0.00
Bettors
most skeptical cohort our read
How North Carolina fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Rr/CFBthe room
I would like for neither of my flairs to be this year’s national embarrassment. I realize that is a lot to ask for.
▲ 268 ▼open ↗
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
Loudest in the room this week real · by engagement
All 7 corners of the fanbase
skeptical
buying in
Die-hards−0.08
Bettors−0.15
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
248 mentions · 7 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkevidence-driven
~ our readNorth Carolina fans are down on the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 145 posts from North Carolina fans this week.
What fans are saying
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
player performanceLimited signal that season
fans argue the roster lacks proven talent
The defense gave up too many explosive plays, something theyve done well limiting the past 4 games. It sucks a lot but we dont have the players to compete at the power 4 level.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Nov 16, 2025 · via CFB
coaching decisionLimited signal that season
fans believe Bill Belichick is underperforming in game strategy
At this point, I don’t see Belichick turning this around with a 2nd year. He’s using this program as a free check.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Oct 4, 2025 · via CFB
recruiting effortLimited signal that season
fans believe Mack Brown was a poor recruiter and developer
Yeah I just feel like as time went on Mack became a worse recruiter and was useless with player development leading to us having to do the whole overhaul in the first place.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 7, 2025 · via CFB
Season storylines
Week 5
“Fucking good. Embarrassing product on the field, embarrassing coach behavior, embarrassing administration don't deserve support”— r/CFB
Week 3
“At this point, with as bad as this season is probably going to go, he's probably lost that privilege if he even had it to begin with. I think it's worth noting that recently one of the most connected UNC insiders even speculated that if this turns out to be a truly terrible ye…”— r/CFB
Week 1
“Charlotte should go with Loftis honestly. I expressed doubt when I saw them start him again for this game. He absolutely will not throw accurately enough unless someone is wide open. It's the same issue he had at UNC too. I thought there was a possibility he got better, but he…”— r/CFB
Week 9
“The offense finally clicked in the second half. Defense did what it was supposed to all game and has been the bright spot since the cal game. Im starting to get optimistic...”— r/CFB
Week 13
“Man, I’m just already so excited that I get to watch Bill Belichick and Mike Norvell coach my college football teams again next year!”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial13 posts
The broader fanbase4 posts
News & campus coverage13 posts
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
North Carolina lives rent-free in
share of each rival fanbase’s football posts that bring up North Carolina
Fanbase Health Index · North Carolina · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · North Carolina · high confidenceGrowing (56)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 4-8 (33% win rate)46
Volume — 653 effective signal-N86
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.02 — quiet35
From the booth
The Lexicon
320 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
belichick
×106.8 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
belichick×106.8n=22
gio×524.2n=24
bill×34.8n=19
lopez×309.8n=13
mack×32.8n=10
Characteristic — 3–10×
gotta×6.8n=11
Mild — <3×
better×2.4n=25
quarterback×2.7n=16
four×2.5n=16
throw×3.2n=10
“Belichick refuses to even see what he has in either freshman QB”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
960 fan mentions
Doomers
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#119 / 138 · 14th pct19.2
Pts allowed/game#59 / 138 · 58th pct24.5
Total yards/gm#131 / 136 · 4th pct289.1
Rush yards/gm#128 / 136 · 7th pct105.2
Pass yards/gm#113 / 136 · 18th pct183.9
Yards allowed/gm#19 / 136 · 87th pct336.6
Rush yds allowed/gm#24 / 136 · 83rd pct125.3
Sacks#31 / 136 · 78th pct31
Interceptions#105 / 136 · 24th pct6
3rd-down conv#94 / 136 · 32nd pct36.9%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team3469289.1/gm4.95/play#131 / 136 · 4th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp4039336.6/gm4.95/play#19 / 136 · 87th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team1262105.2/gm1.80/play#128 / 136 · 7th pct#66 / 69 · 6th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp1504125.3/gm1.84/play#24 / 136 · 83rd pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team34628.8/gm#133 / 136 · 3rd pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp43236.0/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct#32 / 69 · 55th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team110.9/gm#116 / 136 · 15th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp191.6/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team2207183.9/gm3.15/play#113 / 136 · 18th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp2535211.2/gm3.11/play#34 / 136 · 76th pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Pass attempts
Team35529.6/gm#101 / 136 · 26th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp38432.0/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Completions
Team22718.9/gm#86 / 136 · 38th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp24520.4/gm#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#37 / 69 · 48th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Pass TDs
Team131.1/gm#110 / 136 · 20th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp151.2/gm#28 / 136 · 80th pct#21 / 69 · 71st pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Passer rating
Team124.9124.9#95 / 136 · 31st pct#55 / 69 · 22nd pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp129.0129.0#59 / 136 · 57th pct#35 / 69 · 51st pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team60.5/gm#115 / 136 · 16th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp60.5/gm#21 / 136 · 85th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Sacks (def)
Team312.6/gm#31 / 136 · 78th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Opp221.8/gm#53 / 136 · 62nd pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#3 / 10 · 80th pct
Tackles for loss
Team615.1/gm#97 / 136 · 29th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#9 / 10 · 20th pct
Opp645.3/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#2 / 10 · 90th pct
First downs
Team19916.6/gm#128 / 136 · 7th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp25020.8/gm#68 / 136 · 51st pct#40 / 69 · 43rd pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
3rd-down conv
Team584.8/gm#113 / 136 · 18th pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp726.0/gm#83 / 136 · 40th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
3rd-down att
Team15713.1/gm#118 / 136 · 14th pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp17014.2/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
4th-down conv
Team110.9/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp242.0/gm#134 / 136 · 2nd pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
4th-down att
Team151.2/gm#128 / 136 · 7th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp322.7/gm#107 / 136 · 22nd pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Time of possession
Team340:5428:24/gm#122 / 136 · 11th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp379:0431:35/gm#67 / 136 · 51st pct#34 / 69 · 52nd pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#37 / 135 · 73rd pct19/23 (82.6%)
Extra points20/20
Punting#79 / 136 · 43rd pct42.7 avg · 56 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team151.2/gm#75 / 136 · 46th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp121.0/gm#26 / 136 · 82nd pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Fumbles lost
Team90.8/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp60.5/gm#49 / 136 · 65th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
INT return TDs
Team00.0/gm#76 / 135 · 44th pct#39 / 69 · 45th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Opp10.1/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#3 / 11 · 82nd pct
INT return yards
Team705.8/gm#96 / 136 · 30th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp453.8/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Punt ret yds
Team13711.4/gm#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#42 / 69 · 41st pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp15212.7/gm#90 / 136 · 35th pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 69 · 68th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Kick ret yds
Team40233.5/gm#74 / 136 · 46th pct#31 / 69 · 57th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp24920.8/gm#22 / 136 · 85th pct#15 / 69 · 80th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 69 · 77th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#5 / 11 · 64th pct
Opp00.0/gm#1 / 135 · 100th pct#1 / 69 · 100th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 10 · 100th pct
Penalty yards
Team75162.6/gm#45 / 136 · 68th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp61050.8/gm#47 / 136 · 66th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Other
Passes intercepted opponent#9 / 136 · 94th pct#5 / 69 · 94th pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct60.5/gm
Kick ret (opp)#19 / 136 · 87th pct#12 / 69 · 84th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct121.0/gm
Penalties (opp)#20 / 136 · 86th pct#13 / 69 · 83rd pct#1 / 17 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct625.2/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#27 / 143 · 82nd pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct0.10.0/gm
Recruiting rating#41 / 138 · 71st pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct207.817.3/gm
Kick returns#56 / 136 · 60th pct#19 / 69 · 74th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct221.8/gm
Penalties#58 / 136 · 58th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct796.6/gm
Punt returns#61 / 136 · 56th pct#38 / 69 · 46th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct171.4/gm
Red zone pass rate#63 / 154 · 60th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct0.40.0/gm
Fumbles recovered#70 / 136 · 49th pct#33 / 69 · 54th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct60.5/gm
First down pass rate#77 / 215 · 65th pct#26 / 69 · 64th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct0.50.0/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#86 / 136 · 38th pct#50 / 69 · 29th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct80.7/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#91 / 167 · 46th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct0.20.0/gm
Punt ret (opp)#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct181.5/gm
H2 epa per play#98 / 142 · 32nd pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#10 / 17 · 47th pct0.10.0/gm
Interceptions (def)#105 / 136 · 24th pct#49 / 69 · 30th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct60.5/gm
H1 epa per play#122 / 162 · 25th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct0.10.0/gm
Fourth down go rate#123 / 138 · 12th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct0.30.0/gm
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off36.9%#94 / 136 · 32nd pct#54 / 69 · 23rd pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Def42.4%#103 / 136 · 25th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
4th-down conversion
Off73.3%#5 / 136 · 97th pct#4 / 69 · 96th pct#2 / 17 · 94th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Def75.0%#134 / 136 · 2nd pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Turnover margin#86 / 136 · 38th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct-0.25/gm
Sack rate (def)#28 / 136 · 80th pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#3 / 17 · 88th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct8.1%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team352.9/gm#113 / 167 · 33rd pct#60 / 69 · 14th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp443.7/gm#104 / 166 · 38th pct#46 / 69 · 35th pct#8 / 17 · 59th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Red zone score %
Team71.4%71.4%#123 / 167 · 27th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp72.7%72.7%#37 / 166 · 78th pct#14 / 69 · 81st pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Points / drive
Team1.60.1/gm#110 / 167 · 35th pct#61 / 69 · 13th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp1.90.2/gm#73 / 166 · 57th pct#41 / 69 · 42nd pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / drive
Team39.63.3/gm#92 / 167 · 46th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp36.93.1/gm#38 / 166 · 78th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Plays / drive
Team6.50.5/gm#90 / 167 · 47th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp7.00.6/gm#145 / 166 · 13th pct#62 / 69 · 12th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team21.7%21.7%#145 / 167 · 14th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp15.7%15.7%#47 / 166 · 72nd pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#7 / 17 · 65th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#95 / 145 · 35th pct#43 / 69 · 39th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct-2.8%-2.8%
Havoc rate
Team14.9%14.9%#88 / 140 · 38th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#11 / 17 · 41st pct
Opp16.9%16.9%#102 / 140 · 28th pct#53 / 69 · 25th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct
Standard-downs success
Team42.7%42.7%#129 / 154 · 17th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#16 / 17 · 12th pct
Opp46.1%46.1%#57 / 172 · 67th pct#30 / 69 · 58th pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct
Passing-downs success
Team28.2%28.2%#105 / 153 · 32nd pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#14 / 17 · 24th pct
Opp28.4%28.4%#40 / 149 · 74th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.82.8#95 / 143 · 34th pct#47 / 69 · 33rd pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct
Opp2.72.7#39 / 155 · 75th pct#22 / 69 · 70th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct
Stuff rate
Team17.5%17.5%#52 / 143 · 64th pct#29 / 69 · 59th pct#6 / 17 · 71st pct
Opp17.1%17.1%#100 / 155 · 36th pct#51 / 69 · 28th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct
Power success rate
Team59.3%59.3%#121 / 137 · 12th pct#64 / 69 · 9th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct
Opp87.5%87.5%#136 / 141 · 4th pct#67 / 69 · 4th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off63.9%#48 / 136 · 65th pct#28 / 69 · 61st pct#9 / 17 · 53rd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Def63.8%#97 / 136 · 29th pct#48 / 69 · 32nd pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Yards / attempt
Off6.2#123 / 136 · 10th pct#65 / 69 · 7th pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Def6.6#41 / 136 · 71st pct#25 / 69 · 65th pct#5 / 17 · 76th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / completion
Off9.7#131 / 136 · 4th pct#68 / 69 · 3rd pct#17 / 17 · 6th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Def10.3#14 / 136 · 90th pct#10 / 69 · 87th pct#4 / 17 · 82nd pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Yards / carry#114 / 136 · 17th pct#57 / 69 · 19th pct#12 / 17 · 35th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct3.6
Yards / play#120 / 136 · 12th pct#63 / 69 · 10th pct#15 / 17 · 18th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct4.95
Scoring margin#103 / 136 · 25th pct#58 / 69 · 17th pct#13 / 17 · 29th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct-5.2/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.22 EPA/play | 7 | 11 | 170 / 261 | 65.1 | 1747 | 6.7 | 10 | 5 | 130.2 | 49.6 | 5.8 | 6.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. The most common profile in its group this season — 97 of 183 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore View Giovanni Lopez's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · +0.13 EPA/play | 14 | 4 | 54 / 87 | 62.1 | 437 | 5.0 | 2 | 0 | 111.8 | 63.3 | 5.3 | 1.1 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt5.9 bottom 11th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate0.0% 98th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint View Max Johnson's full player page | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.14 EPA/play | 12 | 11 | 84 | 464 | 5.5 | 2 | 50 | 7.7 | 12 | 14.3 | 13.1 | 6.0% (19/319) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share16.8% 79th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.4% bottom 24th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Demon June's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Workhorse · -0.03 EPA/play | 28 | 11 | 71 | 274 | 3.9 | 2 | 18 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 21.4 | 12.9 | 5.3% (17/319) | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 52 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight235 lb 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.6 bottom 12th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Benjamin Hall's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.02 EPA/play | 21 | 12 | 61 | 258 | 4.2 | 3 | 25 | 14.3 | 9.9 | 22.0 | 16.9 | 6.3% (20/319) | |
Yards by week → Satellite BackDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 50 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Receiving share20.8% 92th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry4.2 bottom 18th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Davion Gause's full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.52 EPA/play | 1 | 12 | 60 | 671 | 11.2 | 6 #62 FBS | 55 | 12.9 | 14.7 | 24.1% (77/319) | |
Yards by week → Slot Technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume60 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception11.9 bottom 34th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 83rd percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.44 EPA/play | 8 | 9 | 35 | 438 | 12.5 | 1 | 44 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 17.6% (56/319) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Kobe Paysour's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.04 EPA/play | 9 | 9 | 13 | 150 | 11.5 | 0 | 39 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 6.9% (22/319) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.9 68th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.0 bottom 5th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Javarius Green's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.66 EPA/play | 19 | 6 | 16 | 149 | 9.3 | 1 | 19 | 2.8 | 9.9 | 7.5% (24/319) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. 177 of 223 TEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception10.8 bottom 46th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume16 bottom 31th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jake Johnson's full player page | |||||||||||
| +0.17 EPA/play | 3 | 5 | 5 | 100 | 20 | 1 | 51 | 3.2 | 4.8 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.36 EPA/play | 85 | 5 | 12 | 98 | 8.2 | 0 | 31 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 5.0% (16/319) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception9.2 bottom 14th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Shanard Clower's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.42 EPA/play | 15 | 4 | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 | 18 | 5.6 | 5.4 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| -0.15 EPA/play | 86 | 2 | 9 | 45 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| -0.08 EPA/play | 80 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 1 | 19 | 2.2 | 3.5 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +0.28 EPA/play | 18 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 0 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 12 | 47 | 24 | 12 #51 FBS | 10.5 #12 FBS | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.5% 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 92 | 11 | 41 | 20 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readAscending: his CFB Index score went from the 52nd percentile among FBS IDLs to the 79th | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 94 | 11 | 37 | 17 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 388 of 809 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 5th percentile to the 81st among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 6 | 11 | 36 | 16 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 4 |
Nose AnchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 152 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight315 lb 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 14th percentile to the 52nd among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 11 | 34 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Leroy Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 8 | 12 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.3% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score went from the 15th percentile among FBS IDLs to the 64th | |||||||
| 90 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 25 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 7 | 11 | 73 | 42 | 31 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 76th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Khmori House's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 2 | 11 | 59 | 30 | 29 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.3% 80th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate8.5% 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score now sits at the 92nd percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 74th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 9 | 36 | 16 | 20 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 9 of 21 games this season · senior View Mikai Gbayor's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 40 | 10 | 26 | 17 | 9 | 7.5 | 7 #39 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate26.9% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 12 | 9 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Sideline-to-SidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 102 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gregory Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| 41 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 54 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 31 | 10 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume51 66th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Will Hardy's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 11 | 45 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2023 class View Kaleb Cost's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 10 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 10 of 21 games this season · senior our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 87th percentile to the 37th among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 29 | 11 | 35 | 8 #45 FBS | 0 | 2 | 0.5 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate22.9% 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Marcus Allen's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 18 | 11 | 33 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 4-star, 2024 class View Jaiden Patterson's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate30.0% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score went from the 73rd percentile among FBS Ss to the 29th | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 16 | 10 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Coleman Bryson's full player page | |||||||
| 15 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 90 | 12 | 19/23 | 82.6 | 20/20 | 77 | 57 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 96 | 12 | 56 | 2391 | 42.7 | 60 | 19 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.34 EPA/play | 27 | 8 | 8 | 156 | 19.5 | 0 | 32 |
| +0.17 EPA/play | 3 | 5 | 5 | 102 | 20.4 | 0 | 23 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 31 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 9 | 0 | 22 |
| Possession Receiver · +0.04 EPA/play | 9 | 9 | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 0 | 25 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Khmori House
LB
73.0 tot (def)
2.
Andrew Simpson
LB
59.0 tot (def)
3.
Jordan Shipp
WR
671 yds (rec)
4.
Will Hardy
DB
51.0 tot (def)
5.
Melkart Abou-Jaoude
DL
47.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
24
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Melkart Abou-Jaoude
EDGE
#19 of 420
Andrew Simpson
LB
#56 of 583
Tyler Thompson
LB
#99 of 583
Jordan Shipp
WR
#97 of 485
Isaiah Johnson
IDL
#89 of 330
C.J. Mims
IDL
#97 of 330
+18 more
North Carolina · 2025 schedule & results4-8Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 51% · 3 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 2 | #129 | #36 | +3.5 | TCU | L 14–48 121 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #108 | #225 | -15 | @Charlotte | W 20–3 58 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #129 | #183 | -24.5 | Richmond | W 41–6 113 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #119 | #92 | +7.5 | @UCF | L 9–34 124 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #131 | #15 | +14.5 | Clemson | L 10–38 130 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #140 | #80 | +8.5 | @California | L 18–21 135 | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #138 | #46 | +11 | Virginia | L 16–17 144 | 2-5 | 0-3 |
| 10 | Oct 31 | #126 | #97 | +1.5 | @Syracuse | W 27–10 112 | 3-5 | 1-3 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #107 | #130 | -8.5 | Stanford | W 20–15 126 | 4-5 | 2-3 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #123 | #60 | +3.5 | @Wake Forest | L 12–28 125 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #136 | #68 | +7 | Duke | L 25–32 128 | 4-7 | 2-5 |
| 14 | Nov 30 | #127 | #48 | +7.5 | @NC State | L 19–42 132 | 4-8 | 2-6 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30 | @NC State | L 19–42 | 265 | 1 | 27:01 | +0.104 | 37.1% | 120.7% | Defense's roughest night |
| Nov 22 | Duke | L 25–32 | 305 | 0 | 24:00 | +0.300 | 50.9% | 114.7% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Nov 15 | @Wake Forest | L 12–28 | 257 | 0 | 30:02 | -0.019 | 43.1% | 92.5% | |
| Nov 8 | Stanford | W 20–15 | 253 | 1 | 27:23 | +0.051 | 22.6% | 182.7% | Most explosive |
| Oct 31 | @Syracuse | W 27–10 | 425 | 1 | 35:29 | +0.198 | 46.0% | 132.7% | |
| Oct 25 | Virginia | L 16–17 | 353 | 3 | 32:33 | -0.102 | 36.4% | 80.4% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 18 | @California | L 18–21 | 287 | 3 | 31:10 | -0.008 | 34.4% | 113.9% | One-score loss |
| Oct 4 | Clemson | L 10–38 | 270 | 0 | 27:35 | +0.074 | 43.1% | 93.5% | Blowout loss |
| Sep 20 | @UCF | L 9–34 | 217 | 2 | 26:13 | -0.026 | 35.1% | 106.7% | |
| Sep 13 | Richmond | W 41–6 | 312 | 1 | 21:59 | +0.117 | 45.1% | 121.5% | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 6 | @Charlotte | W 20–3 | 303 | 0 | 29:38 | +0.137 | 38.6% | 135.1% | |
| Sep 2 | TCU | L 14–48 | 222 | 3 | 27:51 | -0.018 | 32.7% | 154.0% | Blowout loss |
| Season average (12 games) | 289 | 1.2 | +0.067 | 38.8% | 120.7% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025North Carolina fields a struggling offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How North Carolina actually scores
13th percentile quality, 89th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
North Carolina's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 13th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 16th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does North Carolina hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
14th percentile success on standard downs, 30th on passing downs — a 16-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
North Carolina by half
1st-half offense ranks 25th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 32nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of North Carolina's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.07; 36th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.08 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
North Carolina reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 16%) and passing epa allowed (top 25%); the crux lives in rushing epa, where North Carolina sits at the 10th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · North Carolina
Most Similar Programs · North CarolinaReads Like
App StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizonaTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArizona StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · North Carolina · 2018-present
Strong
60% home win rate vs 41% on the road. margin runs +8.8 better at home. Kenan Stadium seats 50,500, averaging 97% full (48,835 attendance, 26 games reported).
Home30-20Away17-24
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Demon June and Benjamin Hall split the carries (84/154 vs 70/154) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Demon June produces in bigger chunks.
Demon JuneBenjamin Hall
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 2 claims, 1 survived, 1 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jordan Shipp (WR) and Jake Johnson (TE) split the targets (74/97 vs 23/97) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jake Johnson produces mainly when the game's already decided; Jake Johnson produces in bigger chunks.
Jordan ShippJake Johnson
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
p = 0.001 -- real, not noise
Top-5-catch share
concentration and EPA/target agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 3 claims, 2 survived, 1 falsified
What changed
North Carolina’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Chip Lindsey (2023–2024) → Freddie Kitchens (2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 6 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defense: Geoff Collins / co-Tommy Thigpen (2024) → Stephen Belichick (2025)
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 12 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, North Carolina’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.7% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 151-play sample) — mid-pack, 41 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=151 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 63.6%
Venue texture
68°F average kickoff temp; 13% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 76 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
North Carolina's 2014–2025 record is 78-73. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
695-562-48
since 1893 · 126 seasons · .532 win rate
HOME
418-220-25
AWAY
260-312-23
NEUTRAL
17-30
1890s
1900s
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
North Carolina hired Bill Belichick — six Super Bowl rings, the most decorated coaching resume in football history — and went 4-8 in his first season. The boldest bet any program has ever placed is now in year two, and nothing about it has been simple.
The hire was the argument. Bill Belichick spent 24 years in New England building the most successful dynasty in NFL history, and when North Carolina brought him to Chapel Hill in January 2025, it wasn't a football move so much as a statement of intent — a basketball-blue-blood program that has always lived in the long shadow of the Smith Center announcing that it was serious about football in the most extreme possible way. Lawrence Taylor won the ACC title in 1980. That is the last one. Forty-six years of good intentions and near-misses, and then this: the greatest defensive mind in the sport's history, at 73, running a college program for the first time.
The first year ended 4-8 (2-6 ACC), breaking a six-year bowl streak. Three season-opening losses by a combined 120-33 points. A 19.3-points-per-game offense. Coordinators Freddie Kitchens and Mike Priefer were let go. Quarterbacks Gio Lopez and Bryce Baker entered the portal. Wisconsin transfer Billy Edwards Jr. signed in as the new signal-caller. Bobby Petrino arrived to run the offense. The tabloid story around Belichick's personal life ran parallel to the football story all season, and the fanbase is split cleanly: the faction that says a six-ring legend deserves a full build cycle, and the faction that watched a 4-8 circus and wonders whether a 73-year-old NFL coach was ever going to translate to college recruiting, college rosters, and college program-building.
The 2026 question is not about the long-term bet — everyone agreed this was a five-year project. It is about whether year two looks like a program trending in a discernible direction. Belichick has Billy Edwards Jr. at quarterback and Bobby Petrino's offense installed. The roster is rebuilt. What the season will answer is whether the structure Belichick brings from the NFL — the discipline, the process, the meticulous preparation — produces better football outcomes in the ACC, or whether year one was a preview of a fundamental mismatch.
How they play
Historically finesse and skill-position rich — North Carolina has always been able to put athletes on the field, and the Mack Brown years operated in fast-tempo spread concepts that generated points through space and matchups. Belichick's import from the NFL is structure: pro-style protection schemes, defined roles, a deliberate pace that values ball security over speed of play. The Petrino offense hire signals a shift toward more vertical passing concepts and cleaner play-action structure than the 19-point-per-game 2025 unit produced. The defense, Belichick's domain, is the foundation the rebuild is built around.
Steady
North Carolina 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.02 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.
CFP Era · North Carolina
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8
Season Standing · 2025 · 4-8FBS sub-.500
North Carolina: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
ACC Standing · 2025
14th in the ACC
North Carolina is 14th of 17 in the ACC at 2-6. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on bowl access and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duke | 7-2 |
| 2 | Virginia | 7-3 |
| 3 | Georgia Tech | 6-2 |
| 4 | Miami | 6-2 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 6-2 |
| 6 | SMU | 6-2 |
| 7 | NC State | 5-4 |
| 8 | California | 4-4 |
| 9 | Clemson | 4-4 |
| 10 | Louisville | 4-4 |
| 11 | Wake Forest | 4-4 |
| 12 | Stanford | 3-5 |
| 13 | Florida State | 2-6 |
| 14 | North Carolina | 2-6 |
| 15 | Virginia Tech | 2-6 |
| 16 | Boston College | 1-7 |
| 17 | Syracuse | 1-7 |
Coaching Era · North Carolina
Coaching Era · North CarolinaBill Belichick
Bill Belichick in year 2 of the rebuild. The methodology is taking shape.
Era Bill Belichick · 2025–presentPrev: Freddie Kitchens (2024)OC: Bobby PetrinoPrev OC: Freddie Kitchens (2025)DC: Stephen BelichickPrev DC: Geoff Collins / co-Tommy Thigpen (2024)
2
years · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
Carolina Blue
since 1888
Carolina blue — the pale, distinct shade of blue trademarked by UNC — is the program's most-recognized visual asset. The exact hex (#7BAFD4) is in the Pantone color system. Visiting fans accidentally wear Duke royal blue and learn the difference.
Rameses the Ram
since 1924
Rameses is the live ram mascot (current: Rameses XXII). Used as a good-luck charm for the football team starting 1924. The horned ram appears at home games walked by a handler. The costumed Rameses also performs choreographed routines.
Mack Brown Era (2019-present)
since 2019
Mack Brown's return to Chapel Hill (after 1988-1997 first tenure built the modern UNC program) is the program's most-discussed structural era. Recruiting wins (Sam Howell), close losses, and the navigation of UNC as a basketball-first culture make every Mack-era season a defining moment.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
The 1980 ACC title
Lawrence Taylor's 11-1 Tar Heels win the ACC and finish top ten — still the last conference championship in program history
2024
Belichick hired
North Carolina hires Bill Belichick, the boldest move any program has ever made, betting an NFL legend can build a college winner
2025
The 4-8 first year
Belichick's debut ends 4-8, snapping a six-year bowl streak amid a coordinator purge and a tabloid storyline
Wound
Moment of the Year · North Carolina · 2025
Moment of the Year · North Carolina · 2025Lost 10-38 vs Clemson
Week 6 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2014-2024): 1-8
Most recent: 2024 — loss 14-27 (home). Last 5 postseason: 0-5.
20242023202220212020
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2025
NFL Draft PipelineSteady
12 picks last 5 cycles. Reliable mid-tier pipeline.
12
picks · 2 R1
#3
Drake Maye
Quarterback · 2024 · New England · #10/140 final season
#22
Omarion Hampton
Running Back · 2025 · Los Angeles · #4/310 final season
#67
Joshua Ezeudu
Offensive Guard · 2022 · New York
#28 all-time · 25 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
North Carolina’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014 · co-Chris Kapilovic / co-Seth Littrell2015 · Seth Littrell2016–2017 · co-Chris Kapilovic / co-Gunter Brewer2018 · Chris Kapilovic2019–2022 · Phil Longo2023–2024 · Chip Lindsey2025 · Freddie Kitchens
Hired for 2026: Bobby Petrino — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014 · co-Dan Disch / co-Ron West2015–2016 · Gene Chizik2017–2018 · John Papuchis2019–2021 · co-Jay Bateman / co-Tommy Thigpen2022–2023 · co-Charlton Warren / Gene Chizik / co-Tommy Thigpen2024 · Geoff Collins / co-Tommy Thigpen2025 (ongoing) · Stephen Belichick
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
A heavy-turnover 2025: 16% returning (below average), with the offense the biggest question.
The portal upgraded the K room but opened a hole at WR.
A first-rounder gone at RB headlines 1 2025 draft departures to replace.
North Carolina sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
r/cfb moments
3.3k
[Postgame Thread] TCU Defeats North Carolina 48-14
3k
[Postgame Thread] North Carolina Defeats Appalachian State 63-61
2.5k
[Postgame Thread] UCF Defeats North Carolina 34-9
2.3k
[Postgame Thread] Appalachian State Defeats North Carolina 34-31
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