The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Kirk Ferentz

Followed Hayden Fry. Kirk Ferentz raised Iowa from National Program I to Power Program II.

213–128
1999–now · 1 stint
← all coaches

In his own words

It is good to get the win. Every game, that’s the goal. We don’t talk a lot about it, but why would you put the work in if you’re not trying to do that? I think it’s just really, overall, a very positive first step for us, considering our team right now and the makeup of our team
He enjoys catching balls
The Daily Iowanthe day after the 40–0 opener
We’re going to let this thing play out, all the guys are competing well right now
The Daily Iowan
He’s a guy all the guys on our team look toward
The Daily Iowan
The one guy everyone talked about was [Montgomery]
The Daily Iowan
[Ostrenga] followed that blueprint
The Daily Iowan
I can only tell you we’ll know the answer when we know it
The Daily Iowan

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 4th career season — faster than 37% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #215 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Iowa, 28 seasons (active)
+12.0
National Program II → Power Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Iowa1999–2026▲ 5.1pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Iowa16.8pt#31 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

56–35 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Jeff Brohm.

Rivalry record
56–35
61.5% · 4 rivals
One-score games
64–66
49.2% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Buyout owed
$25,729,167 (est.)
bigger than 74% of FBS buyouts
Rivalry ledger
Iowa State15–1256%
Minnesota19–676%
Wisconsin11–1248%
Nebraska11–569%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Jeff Brohm1–4
5 meetings, 2017–2021
’17 L · blew a 2-pt lead’18 L · blew a 1-pt lead’19 W’20 L · blew a 7-pt lead’21 L
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–2 0.0%
Blue Blood
6–18 25.0%
Power Program
44–48 47.8%
National Program
59–26 69.4%
Regional Program
82–29 73.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.51
#302 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.51
#11 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionWidely held among fans that season

fans believe Kirk Ferentz's team often wins by narrow margins

Iowa has had that 7-3 game and the infamous 6-4 victory with a fuck you safety. The years pass and times changes but Kirk Ferentz getting low scoring wins is inevitable.

Based on 5 comments from 4 posters across 4 threads · Jul 6, 2026–Sep 13, 2026 · via CFB, Josh Pate's College Football Show, hawkeyes

Show all 3
job securityLimited signal that season

fans believe Kirk Ferentz should be fired if Iowa loses to ISU

If Kirk can't fucking beat a bad ISU team then he needs to step the fuck aside.

If we lose to ISU on their rebuilding year at home, I don't care if we beat tOSU and go to the playoffs, I want his fucking ass gone. Especially if he don't sit down Brown.

Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Sep 13, 2026 · via CFB

program directionOne fan's take

One fan believes Kirk Ferentz is uniquely responsible for Iowa's consistent success

I've always thought Ferentz was the best "coach" in the B10. The reason is how much he gets out of middle of the road talent. Iowa consistently gets more out of less than any program imo.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 6, 2026 · via Josh Pate's College Football Show

Coaching career

1999–now
Iowabuilderborderline
National Program I → Power Program II
Kirk Ferentz raised Iowa from National Program I to Power Program II.

3rd-best Iowa tenure of 13 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-24.5 pts
#187 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
+31.2 pts
#8 of 208 · more than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Hayden Fry (1979–1998).

Season1999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026Trend
Record & result
Record1–103–97–511–210–310–27–56–76–69–411–28–57–64–88–57–612–28–58–59–410–36–210–48–510–48–59–40–0
PostseasonL bowlL bowlL bowlW bowlW bowlW bowlL bowlW bowlL bowlL bowlW bowl
Recruiting rank#58#59#47#41#39#41#35#23#30#41#32#38#26
Style — pass rate
Pass rate46.039.438.242.545.647.645.644.345.241.734.336.251.1
Coordinators
OCGreg DavisGreg DavisGreg DavisBrian FerentzBrian FerentzBrian FerentzBrian FerentzBrian FerentzBrian FerentzBrian FerentzTim LesterTim LesterTim Lester
DCPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil ParkerPhil Parker
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense57541523584163430244910
Defense37577989958895849997788397
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%41.433.231.638.538.542.940.237.341.636.423.428.444.4
Red-zone pass%34.531.537.145.048.441.845.330.138.028.932.729.141.7
4th-down go%opp. territory39.519.534.247.234.022.015.419.216.715.412.833.3
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
38
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
73
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-35
#157 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 234 lbs
across 26 of 38 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+3.1 lbs
#147 of 255 · a typical amount
Avg. class year
Jr
#159 of 255 · a typical amount
Top states: MI (4), TX (3), GA (3), OH (3), IL (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.0
position-weighted
Talent lost
60.0
position-weighted
Net
-3.9
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Cade McNamara (QB) from Michigan
Biggest loss: Cade McNamara (QB) to East Tennessee State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Greg Davis → Brian Ferentz · 2017the system held
34th pct40th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 32.4% → 38.5% (+6.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 30% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
OC: Brian Ferentz → Tim Lester · 2024the offense leveled up
2nd pct37th pct0th100th
2-season window either side.
1st-down pass rate: 39.0% → 25.9% (-13.1 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 55% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
220 lbs
6′3″ avg · #166 of 767 · more than most
Running back
211 lbs
5′10″ avg · #236 of 791 · a typical amount
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′0″ avg · #255 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
247 lbs
6′4″ avg · #283 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
302 lbs
6′5″ avg · #644 of 779 · less than most
D-line
276 lbs
6′3″ avg · #542 of 753 · a typical amount
Linebacker
232 lbs
6′2″ avg · #218 of 772 · a typical amount
Cornerback
197 lbs
6′0″ avg · #82 of 771 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows P from high school
80%
#29 of 29 stints
Grows K from high school
75%
#49 of 56 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to Tennessee 28–45 Taxslayer Bowl2015: Lost to Stanford 16–45 Rose Bowl Game Pres. By Northwestern Mutual2016: Lost to Florida 3–30 Outback Bowl2017: Beat Boston College 27–20 New Era Pinstripe Bowl2018: Beat Mississippi State 27–22 Outback Bowl2019: Beat USC 49–24 San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl2021: Lost to Kentucky 17–20 Vrbo Citrus Bowl2022: Beat Kentucky 21–0 TransPerfect Music City Bowl2023: Lost to Tennessee 0–35 Cheez-It Citrus Bowl2024: Lost to Missouri 24–27 TransPerfect Music City Bowl2025: Beat Vanderbilt 34–27 ReliaQuest Bowl

103 NFL Draft picks: Jared DeVries (1999), Eric Thigpen (1999), Austin Wheatley (2000), Matt Bowen (2000), Kevin Kasper (2001), Ladell Betts (2002), Aaron Kampman (2002), Kahlil Hill (2002) + 95 more

18 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Tyler Linderbaum (2020), Daviyon Nixon (2020), Tyler Linderbaum (2021), Riley Moss (2021), Caleb Shudak (2021), Kaevon Merriweather (2022), Jack Campbell (2022), Tory Taylor (2022) + 10 more

213–128