Iowa at Northwestern
Iowa (#21, 6‑2) at Northwestern (6‑2) — Northwestern is favored by 2.5. Northwestern’s passing offense is at the 84th percentile; Iowa’s pass defense is at the 34th.
How they got here
Last three games
Iowa · 6-2
Rated 13th in our preseason ratings, 17th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 17-point win over Washington as a 3-point underdog.
Last three games
Northwestern · 6-2
Rated 14th in our preseason ratings, 10th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: Northwestern’s passing EPA against Iowa, 50 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Northwestern’s passing EPA against Iowa’s defense
Northwestern offense, 84th percentile · Iowa defense, 34th
Iowa’s explosive plays against Northwestern’s defense
Iowa offense, 33rd percentile · Northwestern defense, 67th
Iowa’s EPA/play against Northwestern’s defense
Iowa offense, 41st percentile · Northwestern defense, 66th
What’s at stake
Make the playoff
Win the conference
Win the title
CFP odds as of November 4, 2026
The series
Iowa leads the series 55-28-3
86 meetings since 1897 · Iowa has won the last 4
- 2024Iowa 40-14
- 2023 · neutral siteIowa 10-7
- 2022Iowa 33-13
- 2021Iowa 17-12
- 2020Northwestern 21-20
Each line is Northwestern’s chance to win through that meeting. Northwestern is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Iowa
The chip · vs the national mediaHawkeye fans are tired of the highlight shows treating their brand of football as a punchline; they'll tell you the punt is a weapon and a 13-10 win counts the same as a 49-42 one, and they relish making the cool offenses look silly.
What this game touches
The ceiling above the floor. Iowa almost never bottoms out — and almost never breaks through. Year after year the Hawkeyes grind to nine wins and lose the games that would change the story, like 2025's four regular-season losses by a combined fifteen points to four top-20 teams: close enough to taste, never quite enough to take.
Northwestern
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery preseason the Wildcats are picked to finish last, and every few years they don't — and the fanbase has stopped expecting credit for it. They've learned to treat being underestimated as the natural state of a program that was never supposed to belong.
Best players
Iowa
- Cam Buffington (LB) · 70 tackles
- Zach Lutmer (DB) · 48 tackles
- Jayden Montgomery (LB) · 46 tackles
Northwestern
- Braydon Brus (LB) · 68 tackles
- Griffin Wilde (WR) · 761 receiving yards
- Kobie McKinzie (LB) · 55 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Aidan Chiles (QB) — Northwestern’s leading passer (1,898 passing yards) takes on Iowa’s pass defense (34th percentile allowed).
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (42.5 → 45.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Northwestern fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (61st percentile among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Northwestern favored by 2.5 · Total 45.5
Northwestern by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Northwestern’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 305 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Cold. Bring a heavy coat.
Iowa at Northwestern · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 7:30 pm ET · FOX · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium.
- 42°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 8 mphwind gusts
- 87weather score, Mixed
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
The lowest forecast of this Saturday's 11 TV games with a forecast
- Cincinnati at Houston: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Baylor: 100, Ideal
- Penn State at Washington: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma State at Kansas State: 99, Comfortable
- Temple at Navy: 99, Comfortable
- Hawai'i at UTEP: 98, Comfortable
- UCF at Kansas: 95, Comfortable
- Liberty at New Mexico State: 94, Comfortable
- West Virginia at Texas Tech: 93, Comfortable
- UCLA at Minnesota: 88, Mixed
- Iowa at Northwestern: 87, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium: noon Saturdays score 89, 3:30 pm 87, 7:30 pm 87.
- noon: 89, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 87, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 87, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Northwestern is worth +5.6 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 76th percentile.
54% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (22-19 home, 14-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.3 at home vs. away over 87 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 201 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Northwestern
- Wk 5Wvs Penn State34-13
- Wk 6Wvs Ball State45-14
- Wk 7Wat Michigan State24-21
- Wk 8Wvs Rutgers42-14
- Wk 9Lat Oregon26-34
Iowa
- Wk 4Wat Michigan20-19
- Wk 5Lvs Ohio State14-31
- Wk 6Wat Washington41-24
- Wk 8Lat Minnesota10-13
- Wk 9Wvs Wisconsin30-0
Power rating by week
Northwestern is rated 1.7 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total rose 3 points.
Total: 42.5 → 45.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Northwestern9th3-2
- Iowa8th3-2
Last meeting in our History pages
- Iowa 10, Northwestern 7Nov 4, 2023
Our History pages cover 2 of their meetings since 2017.