Iowa at Minnesota
Minnesota (4‑2) hosts Iowa (#15, 5‑1). The market has Iowa favored by 7. Minnesota’s rushing offense is at the 3rd percentile; Iowa’s run defense is at the 97th.
This is Floyd of Rosedale — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games
Iowa · 5-1
Rated 13th in our preseason ratings, 17th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 17-point win over Washington as a 3-point underdog.
Last three games
Minnesota · 4-2
Rated 29th in our preseason ratings, 64th now, down 35 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 6-point win over Michigan as a 6.5-point underdog.
W 59-7 vs Eastern Illinois #200 of 668
won by 52 as a 42.5-point favorite
Biggest mismatch: Minnesota’s rushing EPA against Iowa, 94 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Minnesota’s rushing EPA against Iowa’s defense
Minnesota offense, 3rd percentile · Iowa defense, 97th
Minnesota’s EPA/play against Iowa’s defense
Minnesota offense, 21st percentile · Iowa defense, 82nd
Minnesota’s explosive plays against Iowa’s defense
Minnesota offense, 26th percentile · Iowa defense, 80th
What’s at stake
Iowa
- Iowa is ranked #15 — a loss would put a real dent in the résumé.
- Kirk Ferentz is 9-1 all-time against P.J. Fleck.
Minnesota
- Minnesota needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 90% to get there with a win here, 61% with a loss.
- Kirk Ferentz has had P.J. Fleck’s number: 1-9 all-time in 10 meetings.
The series
Minnesota leads the series 62-54-2
118 meetings since 1901 · Iowa has won the last 2
- 2025Iowa 41-3
- 2024Iowa 31-14
- 2023Minnesota 12-10
- 2022Iowa 13-10
- 2021Iowa 27-22
Each line is Minnesota’s chance to win through that meeting. Minnesota is 1-2 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Iowa
The chip · vs the national mediaHawkeye fans are tired of the highlight shows treating their brand of football as a punchline; they'll tell you the punt is a weapon and a 13-10 win counts the same as a 49-42 one, and they relish making the cool offenses look silly.
What this game touches
The ceiling above the floor. Iowa almost never bottoms out — and almost never breaks through. Year after year the Hawkeyes grind to nine wins and lose the games that would change the story, like 2025's four regular-season losses by a combined fifteen points to four top-20 teams: close enough to taste, never quite enough to take.
Minnesota
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the program's golden age waved off as a relic of a smaller sport — and answer that the trophies are real, the resurrection is real, and the country keeps underrating a Gophers team that just won its ninth bowl in a row.
What this game touches
The long dormancy. Minnesota was one of the sport's great early powers, then spent generations as a Big Ten afterthought, with no outright conference title since 1967. Fleck's program is good — 8-5 in 2025, a Big Ten-record ninth straight bowl win — but the breakthrough back to the top of the league still hasn't come.
Best players
Iowa
- Cam Buffington (LB) · 52 tackles
- Jayden Montgomery (LB) · 35 tackles
- Kamari Moulton (RB) · 519 rushing yards
Minnesota
- Maverick Baranowski (LB) · 45 tackles
- Kerry Brown (DB) · 34 tackles
- Drake Lindsey (QB) · 1,335 passing yards — Heisman odds: 93rd (+40000)
What to watch
Leading passer and rusher so far this season. Iowa: Kamari Moulton (519 rushing yards); Minnesota: Drake Lindsey (1,335 passing yards).
The spread has moved 2.5 points toward Iowa since opening (+4.5 → +7).
The total has moved down 2.0 points since opening (42.5 → 40.5): books now expect fewer combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Minnesota fans are in a better mood than Iowa fans (72nd vs 50th among FBS fanbases), even with Iowa favored.
- Model · 49%
- Line · 29%
- Minnesota fans · 72nd
- Iowa fans · 50th
Iowa favored by 7 · Total 40.5
Iowa by 7: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Iowa’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed. Rain is possible.
Iowa at Minnesota · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · FS1 · Huntington Bank Stadium. Forecast rain: about 0.02 inch.
- 72°feels like
- 0.02 inforecast rain
- 29%average rain chance
- 23 mphwind gusts
- 97weather score, Comfortable
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 9:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
This game among this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Huntington Bank Stadium: noon Saturdays score 86, 3:30 pm 82, 7:30 pm 83.
- noon: 86, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 82, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 83, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Minnesota is worth +4.7 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 59th percentile.
67% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (34-17 home, 19-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.6 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 244 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Minnesota
- Wk 2Lvs Mississippi State13-38
- Wk 3Wvs Akron41-7
- Wk 4Wat Washington27-24
- Wk 5Wvs Michigan20-14
- Wk 6Lat Purdue13-41
Iowa
- Wk 2Wvs Iowa State16-13
- Wk 3Wvs Northern Iowa55-0
- Wk 4Wat Michigan20-19
- Wk 5Lvs Ohio State14-31
- Wk 6Wat Washington41-24
Power rating by week
Iowa is rated 7.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Iowa.
The total fell 2 points.
Spread: +4.5 → +7 · Total: 42.5 → 40.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Iowa 41, Minnesota 3Oct 25, 2025
Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.