Mississippi State at Minnesota
Fan take
Mississippi State fans
Minnesota fans
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Mississippi State · 5-8
Picked #143 in the preseason · now #141 — about right.
Three straight losses.
L 29–43 vs Wake Forest #52 of 668
lost by 14 as a 3-point favorite
L 19–38 vs Ole MissTop 25 #9 of 668
lost by 19 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 27–49 @ MissouriTop 25 #21 of 668
lost by 22 as a 7-point underdog
L 21–41 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 668
lost by 20 as a 9.5-point underdog
W 38–35 @ Arkansas #54 of 668
won by 3 as a 5-point underdog
L 38–45 vs TexasTop 25 #13 of 668
lost by 7 as a 8-point underdog
L 21–23 @ FloridaTop 25 #27 of 668
lost by 2 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 9–31 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #12 of 668
lost by 22 as a 17.5-point underdog
L 34–41 vs TennesseeTop 25 #13 of 668
lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog
W 38–10 vs Northern Illinois #121 of 668
won by 28 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 63–0 vs Alcorn State #218 of 668
W 24–20 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #23 of 668
won by 4 as a 5.5-point underdog
W 34–17 @ Southern Miss #223 of 668
won by 17 as a 14.5-point favorite
Last three games · 2025 season
Minnesota · 8-5
Picked #29 in the preseason · now #45 — worse than expected.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Wisconsin as a 2.5-point underdog.
W 20–17 vs New Mexico #85 of 668
won by 3 as a 2-point favorite
W 17–7 vs Wisconsin #70 of 668
won by 10 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 35–38 @ Northwestern #59 of 668
lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 13–42 @ OregonTop 25 #3 of 668
lost by 29 as a 27-point underdog
W 23–20 vs Michigan State #82 of 668
won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
L 3–41 @ IowaTop 25 #25 of 668
lost by 38 as a 7-point underdog
W 24–6 vs NebraskaTop 25 #48 of 668
won by 18 as a 7-point underdog
W 27–20 vs Purdue #113 of 668
won by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 3–42 @ Ohio StateTop 25 #1 of 668
lost by 39 as a 23.5-point underdog
W 31–28 vs Rutgers #53 of 668
won by 3 as a 4-point favorite
L 14–27 @ California #59 of 668
lost by 13 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 66–0 vs Northwestern State #240 of 668
W 23–10 vs Buffalo #43 of 668
won by 13 as a 18.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Mississippi State
- Mississippi State sits at 5% to make the CFP field — 6% with a win here, 3% with a loss.
- Mississippi State is coming off a 25-point win.
Minnesota
- Minnesota is still shaking off a 25-point loss.
The series
Mississippi State leads the series 1-0
1 meeting since 2026 · Mississippi State won the last meeting
- 2026Mississippi State 38–13
Best players
Mississippi State
- Anthony Evans III (WR) · 239 receiving yards
- Kamario Taylor (QB) · 581 passing yards — Heisman odds: 43rd (+2200)
- Jalen Smith (LB) · 12 tackles
Minnesota
- Maverick Baranowski (LB) · 15 tackles
- Drake Lindsey (QB) · 543 passing yards — Heisman odds: 113th (+22500)
- Javon Tracy (WR) · 149 receiving yards
The line, and the room
Minnesota fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (68th percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 90%
- Market · 45%
- Minnesota fans · 68th
- Mississippi State fans · 65th
Home +1.5 · O/U 53.5
Conditions
73°F · 13 mph wind · Clear
Minnesota is worth +4.1 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 49th percentile.
65% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (32–17 home, 18–20 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +8.2 at home vs. away over 72 games — outside the ±7.2 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
The visitors travel about 830 miles to get here.
Mississippi State 38 – Minnesota 13
Missed — picked Minnesota, Mississippi State won.
Recent games
Minnesota
- Wk 1Wvs Eastern Illinois59-7
Mississippi State
- Wk 1Wvs UL Monroe62-13
Trajectory
Mississippi State upset the pregame pick, beating Minnesota 38-13.