Mississippi State 41-34 South Carolina (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Mississippi State · South Carolina

Mississippi State3-041

South Carolina2-134Final

Sat, Sep 19 · Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia, S.C. · Crowd 78,360

Mississippi State beat South Carolina 41-34 after its win chance fell to 2%.

Winners have been down to 2% or less in about 1 of every 75 games since 2018.

We had South Carolina favored. Mississippi State won.

Next: Mississippi State beat Missouri 31-24, Sat Sep 26

Next: South Carolina lost to Alabama 49-18, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

Refs decided they wanted the game to be about them.

Q3 7:17 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Orsan 30-yd field goal, South Carolina goes ahead 3-0 (Q1, 7:07). Mississippi State went from 36% to 18% to win. Fans right then: “The story I’m telling is we scored a touchdown off a turnover, and I’m telling anyone who tries to add context that they a ho” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Mississippi State a 16% chance, and the closing betting line (Mississippi State was a 3-point underdog) put it at 40%.

27 unanswered

Mississippi State · Q3 6:07

FinalMississippi State 41-34 South CarolinaMississippi State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 7:07Orsan 30-yd field goal, South Carolina goes ahead 3-0Mississippi State 36% → 18% (−18)
2Q3 5:50InterceptionPenaltySellers intercepted by Smith at the USC44, illegal block in back on MsuMississippi State 52% → 69% (+17)

The two plays that swung it

1Q1 7:07Orsan 30-yd field goal, South Carolina goes ahead 3-0South Carolina 64% → 82% (+18)
2Q3 5:50InterceptionPenaltySellers intercepted by Smith at the USC44, illegal block in back on MsuSouth Carolina 48% → 31% (−17)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 4:54South Carolina fans celebrate a penalty bailout on Sellers' touchdown driveThe story I’m telling is we scored a touchdown off a turnover, and I’m telling anyone who tries to add context that they a hor/CFB game threadBeamer knew they were going to commit a penalty. 6th dimension thinking therer/CFB game thread
Q2 8:56South Carolina fans celebrate Orsan's 51-yard field goal and mock a controversial penalty callWait we can kick 50+ FGs?r/CFB game thread
Q2 5:16Taylor throws deep touchdown to Ragins as South Carolina fans panicIt feels like we’ve barely scored a touchdown and they’ve scored 2 great ones. Sellers is a hell of an athlete but he cannot drop dimes like KT.r/CFB game threadState scores here, we stall on O again and then we flail around with 0 timeouts as state punches in one more before the half. I’m calling it nowr/CFB game thread
Q2 1:05Officials call holding on Mississippi State, sparking outrage from both fanbasesWhat a crazy irrelevant penalty to a massive playr/CFB game threadWoof weak ass call but thanksr/CFB game thread
Q3 7:17South Carolina fans rage over a controversial pass interference call on Mississippi State's touchdown driveQuoted at the top of the page.refs helping out Beamer get himself firedr/CFB game thread
Q3 2:52Sellers throws interception to Riley as South Carolina fans demand benchingBack in the Spurrier days we wouldn't see Sellers for the rest of the game after that. Beamer won't bench the NIL starter though.r/CFB game thread

Mississippi State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (South Carolina -3), at 34% for Mississippi State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a South Carolina or Mississippi State flair (1,779 and 844); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Kickoff came 1 hour 20 minutes late. Thunder was reported at Columbia Owens Downtown Airport (1.5 miles away) from 4:04 p.m. to 4:14 p.m., around the delay.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Mississippi State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Mississippi State scored on 7 of its 13 drives; South Carolina on 7 of its 12.

Mississippi State’s drives are teal, South Carolina’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From South Carolina’s side

South Carolina’s best moment: Orsan 30-yd field goal, South Carolina goes ahead 3-0 (Q1 7:07). It lifted South Carolina’s win chance by 18 points.

How South Carolina fans took it: “Kamario reminds me of 2024 LaNorris. Cherish him, State fans. You don’t know if he might fall back to earth. Would be cool to see you guys compete for the…” r/CFB game thread

“My cardiologist just called and said I can’t do this anymore”

A South Carolina fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans were loudest in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Mississippi State fans

lebby“absolutely no clue why lebby hasn't pulled 58 yet. he's an active detriment.”

please“Please put a TE or RB on the left to help block instead of banking on the refs’ pity this drive”

back“Even on a busted play, Fluff can usually grind back to the line. Love watching him run, no quit!”

South Carolina fans

beamer“Back in the Spurrier days we wouldn't see Sellers for the rest of the game after that. Beamer won't bench the NIL starter though.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: call, now, half, getting.

The winner fell to 2%.

What it cost

Mississippi State’s chance to make the playoff rose from 18% to 27%.

Make the playoff

Mississippi State · won18% → ▲27%

South Carolina · lost29% → ▼21%

Win the conference

Mississippi State · won1% → ▲3%

South Carolina · lost3% → ▼2%

Win the title

Mississippi State · won1% → 1%

South Carolina · lost2% → ▼1%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34

Mississippi State covered +3 by 10. The total, 75, went over 59.5.

Team totals	Mississippi State	South Carolina
Total yards	393	431
Passing	19 of 27, 258 yds	25 of 40, 282 yds
Rushing	34 for 135 yds	39 for 149 yds
First downs	19	21
Third down	5 of 11	6 of 18
Fourth down	1 of 1	3 of 3
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	14 for 98 yds	9 for 98 yds
Time of possession	25:45	34:15

Mississippi State leaders

Passing Kamario Taylor 18 of 26, 251 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Fluff Bothwell 21 for 115 yds; Kamario Taylor 8 for 33 yds
Receiving Zion Ragins 2 for 61 yds, 1 TD; Sanfrisco Magee 2 for 55 yds, 1 TD

South Carolina leaders

Passing Lanorris Sellers 25 of 40, 282 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Matthew Fuller 17 for 73 yds, 1 TD; Lanorris Sellers 14 for 52 yds
Receiving Matthew Fuller 7 for 85 yds, 1 TD; Donovan Murph 1 for 44 yds

Kickoff came 1 hour 20 minutes late

85° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 3 mph from the south, gusts to 8

Thunder was reported at Columbia Owens Downtown Airport (1.5 miles away) from 4:04 p.m. to 4:14 p.m., around the delay.

The usual here around this date is 77°, with about 7 in 10 games between 68° and 86°.

September game-day temperatures at Williams-Brice Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 7:07 left5:51 p.m.

Mississippi State 0, South Carolina 3 · South Carolina 82% to win

no rain · wind 2 mph from the southwest · 85°

Orsan 30-yd field goal, South Carolina goes ahead 3-0

Measured at Columbia Owens Downtown Airport, 1.5 miles away, and Columbia Metropolitan Airport, 6.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Mississippi State · 2-0

Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings, 106th now, up 26 spots.

Two straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 38-13 @ Minnesota #40 of 668

won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 62-13 vs UL Monroe #162 of 668

won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite

Last two games

South Carolina · 2-0

Rated 16th in our preseason ratings, 16th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 45-9 vs Towson #182 of 668

won by 36 as a 44.5-point favorite

W 57-0 vs Kent State #114 of 668

won by 57 as a 35.5-point favorite

Week by week

South Carolina

Wk 1Wvs Kent State57-0
Wk 2Wvs Towson45-9

Mississippi State

Wk 1Wvs UL Monroe62-13
Wk 2Wat Minnesota38-13

Power rating by week

South Carolina is rated 10.7 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: South Carolina’s success rate against Mississippi State, 63 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

South Carolina’s success rate against Mississippi State’s defense
South Carolina offense, 76th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 13th
Mississippi State’s passing EPA against South Carolina’s defense
Mississippi State offense, 66th percentile · South Carolina defense, 12th
South Carolina’s explosive plays against Mississippi State’s defense
South Carolina offense, 44th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 89th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Mississippi StateSouth Carolina

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

South Carolina leads the series 10-7

17 meetings since 1992 · South Carolina won the last meeting

2023South Carolina 37-30
2016Mississippi State 27-14
2013South Carolina 34-16
2011South Carolina 14-12
2007South Carolina 38-21

Each line is South Carolina’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Mississippi State fans are in a better mood than South Carolina fans (41st vs 23rd among FBS fanbases), even with South Carolina favored.

South Carolina favored by 3 · Total 59.5

How games like this usually go

South Carolina by 3, on the usual path until 1:39 left in the fourth

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4.5 points toward Mississippi State.

The total rose 5 points.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Hot and dry. Feels like 91° at kickoff.

Mississippi State at South Carolina · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · Williams-Brice Stadium, Columbia

91°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
52weather score, Rough

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game is ringed. At Williams-Brice Stadium that day, a 7:30 pm or 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 94, against 52 at 4 pm.

noon: 52, Rough
1 pm: 43, Harsh
2 pm: 45, Harsh
3:30 pm: 49, Harsh
4 pm: 52, Rough (this game)
6 pm: 81, Mixed
7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
7:45 pm: 94, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

South Carolina is worth +4.5 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 57th percentile.

52% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (26-24 home, 13-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.8 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 448 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

South Carolina10th0-0
Mississippi State11th0-0

Full SEC standings

Mississippi State beats South Carolina 41-34