Missouri travels to Mississippi State. No market line yet; the model gives Missouri a 75% shot.
What’s at stake
Mississippi State
- A win puts Mississippi State a step closer to a 1% shot at the CFP field.
- Mississippi State is the program with the loudest cowbells in the SEC and the longest patience with the football product underneath.
Missouri
- Missouri is ranked #25, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Missouri hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
The series
Missouri leads the series 4-2
6 meetings since 1981 · Missouri has won the last 2
- 2025Missouri 49–27
- 2024Missouri 39–20
- 2020Mississippi State 51–32
- 2015Mississippi State 31–13
- 1984Missouri 47–30
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Missouri
The chip · vs the national mediaFans remember every analyst who called the SEC jump a mistake in 2012, and they note that even after two division titles and three top-15 finishes, the previews still treat Missouri as the league's afterthought.
What this game touches
Five yards from the title game. The 2007 team rose to No. 1 in the BCS before losing the Big 12 Championship to Oklahoma — the closest Missouri has come to playing for it all, and the standing definition of the program's almost.
Mississippi State
The chip · vs big brotherFans are tired of being treated as the lesser team in their own state — a different school with a different identity, an engineering university with the loudest crowd in the league, told every November that the Egg Bowl is the rivalry that defines them.
What this game touches
The Lebby holding pattern. Jeff Lebby went 2-10 in 2024, then 5-8 in 2025 — his first SEC win didn't come until November 1 against Arkansas, and the year ended with a Duke's Mayo Bowl loss to Wake Forest. A loyal base is being asked, again, to wait for the floor to lift.
Best players
Mississippi State
- Jahron Manning (S) · 2025: 91 tackles
- Nic Mitchell (LB) · 2025: 78 tackles
- Anthony Evans III (WR) · 2025: 831 receiving yards
Missouri
- Ahmad Hardy (RB) · 2025: 1,649 rushing yards — Heisman odds: 26th (+7400)
- Nicholas Rodriguez (LB) · 2025: 61 tackles
- Santana Banner (S) · 2025: 59 tackles
The line, and the room
Missouri fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (23rd percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
Conditions
Mississippi State is 56% at home, 32% on the road since 2018 (31-24 home, 12-26 away).