Mississippi State 31-24 Missouri (Sep 26, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Missouri · Mississippi State

No. 19 Missouri3-124

No. 24 Mississippi State4-031Final

Sat, Sep 26 · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss. · Crowd 60,417

No. 24 Mississippi State beat No. 19 Missouri 31-24.

We had Missouri favored. Mississippi State won.

Next: Missouri beat Florida 45-17, Sat Oct 3

Next: Mississippi State lost to Alabama 56-23, Sat Oct 3

Top comment in the game thread

Refs wanna stop the game every other play but we’re not gonna take a look at a critical play lmao? Such a joke

Q4 7:39 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: Bothwell 4-yd TD run, ties it 24-24 (Q4, 7:09). Mississippi State went from 30% to 53% to win. Fans right then: “Refs wanna stop the game every other play but we’re not gonna take a look at a critical play lmao? Such a joke” r/CFB game thread

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Mississippi State a 44% chance, and the closing betting line (Mississippi State was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.

Down to 21% in the third quarter, Mississippi State came back to win.

Up to 79% in the third quarter, then Missouri lost it.

17 unanswered

Missouri · Q3 10:50

FinalMississippi State 31-24 MissouriMississippi State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 7:09Bothwell 4-yd TD run, ties it 24-24Mississippi State 30% → 53% (+23)
2Q4 3:57Taylor 24-yd TD pass to Magee, Mississippi State goes ahead 31-24Mississippi State 68% → 90% (+22)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 7:09Bothwell 4-yd TD run, ties it 24-24Missouri 70% → 47% (−23)
2Q4 3:57Taylor 24-yd TD pass to Magee, Mississippi State goes ahead 31-24Missouri 32% → 10% (−22)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 8:56A deep pass was thrown and caught for a touchdown.What a deep ballr/CFB game thread
Q3 10:50A player made an impressive spin move.Full speed spin move was awesome.r/CFB game thread
Q4 7:39Missouri fans argue officials spot Bothwell short of first downQuoted at the top of the page.# BOTH SPOTS WERE BAD AND NO REVIEWSr/CFB game thread
Q4 5:12The war crimes Mike Leach would have committed with Kamario Taylorr/CFB game threadI don't mean to be dramatic, but that long pass was make or break of the rest of the season regardless what happens tonight on the scoreborardr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:18Missouri fans rip Drink for passing on third and short after running twiceWhat was the point of running to get 3rd and short just to run a slow play action on a blitzr/CFB game threadit’s really neat how they warned them about the cowbells and literally never enforced the warningr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:51Missouri fans rip clock management as Simmons throws incomplete passes to end the gameCongrats state. Just complete mismanagement of the game in the 4th.r/CFB game thread

Mississippi State’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Mississippi State -3.5), at 70% for Mississippi State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Mississippi State or Missouri flair (949 and 782); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Mississippi State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Mississippi State scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Missouri on 4 of its 12.

Mississippi State’s drives are teal, Missouri’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Missouri’s side

Missouri’s best moment: Simmons 28-yd TD pass to Lee, Missouri goes ahead 24-17 (Q3 2:53). It lifted Missouri’s win chance by 16 points.

How Missouri fans took it: “Congrats state. Just complete mismanagement of the game in the 4th.” r/CFB game thread

“If Mizzou had Hardy this game wouldn't even be close man.”

A Mississippi State fan

When fans got loud

Busy

Fans were at their loudest with the game on the line.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was busy; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Mississippi State fans

lebby“A healthy fluff makes this offense crazy. I need Lebby to start rotating in other backs to keep fluff healthy”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: refs, ball, call, back.

What it cost

Missouri’s chance to make the playoff fell from 28% to 21%.

Make the playoff

Missouri · lost28% → ▼21%

Mississippi State · won26% → ▲32%

Win the conference

Missouri · lost2% → ▼1%

Mississippi State · won3% → ▲4%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Mississippi State 31, Missouri 24

Mississippi State covered −3.5 by 3.5. The total, 55, stayed under 58.5.

Team totals	Missouri	Mississippi State
Total yards	414	499
Passing	23 of 40, 295 yds	27 of 38, 360 yds
Rushing	35 for 119 yds	40 for 139 yds
First downs	23	27
Third down	7 of 16	6 of 14
Fourth down	0 of 2	1 of 2
Turnovers	0	1
Penalties	8 for 91 yds	8 for 84 yds
Time of possession	31:36	28:24

Missouri leaders

Passing Austin Simmons 23 of 39, 295 yds, 3 TD
Rushing Jamal Roberts 26 for 95 yds; Xai'Shaun Edwards 6 for 24 yds
Receiving Cayden Lee 11 for 156 yds, 2 TD; Donovan Olugbode 4 for 54 yds, 1 TD

Mississippi State leaders

Passing Kamario Taylor 27 of 38, 360 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Fluff Bothwell 25 for 122 yds, 1 TD; Kolin Wilson 4 for 15 yds
Receiving Anthony Evans III 8 for 114 yds; Sanfrisco Magee 3 for 76 yds, 2 TD

No rain through the game

75° at kickoff · no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Davis Wade Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 7:09 left9:51 p.m.

Missouri 24, Mississippi State 24 · Mississippi State 53% to win

73°

Bothwell 4-yd TD run, ties it 24-24

Measured at Starkville airport, 3.6 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Missouri · 3-0

Rated 38th in our preseason ratings, 36th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 27-17 vs Troy #113 of 668

won by 10 as a 26.5-point favorite

W 38-21 @ Kansas #78 of 668

won by 17 as a 4-point favorite

W 54-14 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #250 of 668

won by 40 as a 55.5-point favorite

Last three games

Mississippi State · 3-0

Rated 132nd in our preseason ratings, 75th now, up 57 spots.

Three straight wins, capped by a 7-point win over South Carolina as a 3-point underdog.

W 41-34 @ South Carolina #22 of 668

won by 7 as a 3-point underdog

W 38-13 @ Minnesota #40 of 668

won by 25 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 62-13 vs UL Monroe #162 of 668

won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite

Week by week

Mississippi State

Wk 1Wvs UL Monroe62-13
Wk 2Wat Minnesota38-13
Wk 3Wat South Carolina41-34

Missouri

Wk 1Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54-14
Wk 2Wat Kansas38-21
Wk 3Wvs Troy27-17

Power rating by week

Missouri is rated 4.7 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Missouri’s passing EPA against Mississippi State, 53 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Missouri’s passing EPA against Mississippi State’s defense
Missouri offense, 77th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 24th
Mississippi State’s explosive plays against Missouri’s defense
Mississippi State offense, 51st percentile · Missouri defense, 20th
Missouri’s EPA/play against Mississippi State’s defense
Missouri offense, 55th percentile · Mississippi State defense, 29th

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

MissouriMississippi State

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Missouri leads the series 4-2

6 meetings since 1981 · Missouri has won the last 2

2025Missouri 49-27
2024Missouri 39-20
2020Mississippi State 51-32
2015Mississippi State 31-13
1984Missouri 47-30

Each line is Mississippi State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Mississippi State fans are in a better mood than Missouri fans (68th vs 33rd among FBS fanbases), even with Missouri favored.

Mississippi State favored by 3.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Mississippi State by 3.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward Mississippi State.

The total rose 2 points.

The books’ cut: 4.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Mississippi State is worth +3.5 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 38th percentile.

51% at home, 34% on the road against FBS opponents (26-25 home, 14-27 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.9 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 427 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Mississippi State5th1-0
Missouri10th0-0

Full SEC standings

No. 24 Mississippi State upsets No. 19 Missouri 31-24