Missouri 45-17 Florida (Oct 3, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Florida · Missouri

No. 8 Florida4-117

No. 25 Missouri4-145Final

Sat, Oct 3 · Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Mo. · Crowd 63,609

No. 25 Missouri routed No. 8 Florida 45-17.

We had Florida favored. Missouri won.

Next: Florida lost to South Carolina 38-19, Sat Oct 10

Next: Missouri beat Texas A&M 27-6, Sat Oct 10

Top comment in the game thread

Mama said alligators is ornery because they got 12 carries but only 13 yards.

Q3 0:49 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Oct 3

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Missouri a 35% chance, and the closing betting line (Missouri was a 5.5-point underdog) put it at 33%.

80-yard TD run

Missouri · Q4 13:33

FinalMissouri 45-17 FloridaMissouri wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 13:01Special teams41-yd punt, Fowlkes returns it 17Missouri 38% → 52% (+14)
2Q3 12:24Roberts 5-yd TD run, Missouri leads 27-10Missouri 81% → 95% (+14)

The two plays that swung it

1Q2 13:01Special teams41-yd punt, Fowlkes returns it 17Florida 62% → 48% (−14)
2Q3 12:24Roberts 5-yd TD run, Missouri leads 27-10Florida 19% → 5% (−14)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 8:37Florida fans rage at refs for quick forward progress spot on Philo runWhat is with these refs and “forward progress”r/CFB game threadTerrible spot on third and clearly offsides on 4th, battling the refs againr/CFB game thread
Q3 0:49Roberts runs 77 yards as fans mock Florida's defense and rankingQuoted at the top of the page.If y'all are always going to whine about ranked Mizzou when they haven't done anything, you'd best be pushing for highly ranked Mizzou now that they've gone and done somethingr/CFB game thread
Q4 13:33Roberts runs 80 yards for a touchdown as fans mock FloridaFlorida embarrassing Ole Miss two weeks in a row.r/CFB game thread

Missouri’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Florida -5.5), at 40% for Missouri (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Missouri or Florida flair (1,100 and 1,587); both sides share one scale, regulation only.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Missouri’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Missouri scored on 8 of its 13 drives; Florida on 3 of its 12.

Missouri’s drives are teal, Florida’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Florida’s side

Florida’s best moment: Philo 24-yd pass to Wilson (Q1 13:17). It lifted Florida’s win chance by 11 points.

How Florida fans took it: “If you beat a top 10 opponent and you are outside the top 20.... the top 10 opponent should have to pay the field rush fine.” r/CFB game thread

“SEC bias keeping mizzou ranked 😤😤”

A Missouri fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the fourth quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was busy.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Missouri fans

simmons“Cayden Lee and Austin Simmons are legit the two best Mizzou transfers ever.”

Florida fans

philo“Philo has that sorta issue a lot ngl. He’s always jittery before locking in.”

refs“Refs are calling forward progress the millisecond someone doesn’t move? What is going on here”

ball“Guys make sure you don’t block the guy who is about to tackle the ball carrier unless you make eye contact and get consent”

progress“Refs are calling forward progress the millisecond someone doesn’t move? What is going on here”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: back, now, top, call.

What it cost

Florida’s chance to make the playoff fell from 63% to 52%.

Make the playoff

Florida · lost63% → ▼52%

Missouri · won18% → ▲24%

Win the conference

Florida · lost11% → ▼6%

Missouri · won1% → 1%

Win the title

Florida · lost5% → ▼4%

Missouri · won1% → 1%

Before the game (October 2, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Missouri 45, Florida 17

Missouri covered +5.5 by 33.5. The total, 62, went over 57.5.

Team totals	Florida	Missouri
Total yards	325	560
Passing	26 of 39, 283 yds	23 of 30, 340 yds
Rushing	25 for 42 yds	36 for 220 yds
First downs	19	24
Third down	6 of 16	7 of 13
Fourth down	0 of 1	0 of 0
Turnovers	0	0
Penalties	8 for 80 yds	4 for 50 yds
Time of possession	28:20	31:40

Florida leaders

Passing Aaron Philo 21 of 34, 197 yds, 1 TD
Rushing London Montgomery 1 for 17 yds; Jadan Baugh 12 for 13 yds
Receiving Dallas Wilson 4 for 66 yds, 1 TD; Tawaski Abrams 3 for 55 yds, 1 TD

Missouri leaders

Passing Austin Simmons 23 of 30, 340 yds, 2 TD
Rushing Jamal Roberts 24 for 211 yds, 3 TD; Xai'Shaun Edwards 7 for 10 yds
Receiving Cayden Lee 8 for 110 yds; Donovan Olugbode 6 for 94 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

74° at kickoff · no rain recorded

October game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:48 left2:51 p.m.

Florida 0, Missouri 0 · Missouri 40% to win

no rain · 74°

Philo 9-yd pass to Wilson

Where this weather comes from

Measured at Columbia airport, 10 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last 4 games

Florida · 4-0

Rated 22nd in our preseason ratings, 11th now, up 11 spots.

4 straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 52-28 vs Ole MissTop 25 #19 of 668

won by 24 as a 4-point favorite

W 44-39 @ Auburn #60 of 668

won by 5 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 52-3 vs Campbell #196 of 668

won by 49 as a 51.5-point favorite

W 66-21 vs Florida Atlantic #106 of 668

won by 45 as a 26.5-point favorite

Last 4 games

Missouri · 3-1

Rated 38th in our preseason ratings, 39th now.

3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 24-31 @ Mississippi StateTop 25 #63 of 668

lost by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 27-17 vs Troy #113 of 668

won by 10 as a 26.5-point favorite

W 38-21 @ Kansas #78 of 668

won by 17 as a 4-point favorite

W 54-14 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff #250 of 668

won by 40 as a 55.5-point favorite

Week by week

Missouri

Wk 1Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54-14
Wk 2Wat Kansas38-21
Wk 3Wvs Troy27-17
Wk 4Lat Mississippi State24-31

Florida

Wk 1Wvs Florida Atlantic66-21
Wk 2Wvs Campbell52-3
Wk 3Wat Auburn44-39
Wk 4Wvs Ole Miss52-28

Power rating by week

Florida is rated 4.6 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Missouri’s passing EPA against Florida, 59 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Missouri’s passing EPA against Florida’s defense
Missouri offense, 77th percentile · Florida defense, 18th
Missouri’s explosive plays against Florida’s defense
Missouri offense, 89th percentile · Florida defense, 53rd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

FloridaMissouri

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Missouri leads the series 7-6

13 meetings since 1965 · Missouri won the last meeting

2023Missouri 33-31
2022Florida 24-17
2021Missouri 24-23
2020Florida 41-17
2019Florida 23-6

Each line is Missouri’s chance to win through that meeting. Missouri is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Florida fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (84th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

Florida favored by 5.5 · Total 57.5

How games like this usually go

Florida by 5.5, on the usual path until Q2 3:07

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Florida.

The total rose 4 points.

The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 73° at kickoff.

Florida at Missouri · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Memorial Stadium, Columbia

73°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
97weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the roughest of the day's 5 kickoff times

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the roughest of the day's five kickoff times. At Memorial Stadium that day, a 11 am, 6 pm or 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 97 at 2:30 pm.

The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.

11 am: 100, Ideal
2:30 pm: 97, Comfortable (this game)
3:15 pm: 98, Comfortable
6 pm: 100, Ideal
6:45 pm: 100, Ideal

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Missouri is worth +6.5 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 88th percentile.

75% at home, 39% on the road against FBS opponents (38-13 home, 16-25 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.7 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±5.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 857 miles to get here.

Last meeting in our History pages

Missouri 33, Florida 31Nov 18, 2023

Our History pages cover 3 of their meetings since 2018.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.

Missouri11th0-1
Florida3rd2-0

Full SEC standings

No. 25 Missouri routs No. 8 Florida 45-17