Florida routs Florida Atlantic 66-21
Team pages: Florida Atlantic · Florida
Florida routed Florida Atlantic 66-21. Share this game
We had Florida favored. It won.
Top comment in the game thread
If Jadan Baugh was a car he would be an awesome monster truck with a cool skull in front of it and flames coming out the exhaust pipe
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Florida a 90% chance, and the closing betting line (Florida was a 26.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.
Florida 66-21 Florida Atlantic
Florida wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Florida Atlantic 21-66 FloridaFlorida Atlantic lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
What fans said, play by play
The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.
- Q1 2:06Florida fans celebrate Durkin's 53-yard field goal, marveling at the team's kicking prowess
that kick looked good from 60
r/CFB game thread - Q2 11:27Florida fans celebrate Baugh's 25-yard run and subsequent touchdown
All things are possible through Baugh, so jot that down.
r/CFB game thread - Q2 4:05Florida fans hail Jadan Baugh as a Heisman contender after his touchdown runQuoted at the top of the page.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Florida -26.5), at 97% for Florida (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. The gray band is r/CFB game-thread activity, its loudest stretches in gold. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.Watch the plays
The bar and the arrow show Florida’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.
- Q1, 12:01Veltkamp intercepted by Coleman at the FLA05Q1, 12:01 · Florida 0, Florida Atlantic 00-0score after the play0-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 8:41Philo 49-yd TD pass to BrownFlorida goes ahead 7-0Q1, 8:41 · Florida 7, Florida Atlantic 0▲2%Florida’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▲2%Florida’s chance to win, 96% to 98%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q1, 6:28Philo 12-yd TD pass to StocktonFlorida leads 14-0Q1, 6:28 · Florida 14, Florida Atlantic 014-0score after the play14-0score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 13:54Ervin 1-yd TD runcuts it to 17-7Q2, 13:54 · Florida 17, Florida Atlantic 717-7score after the play17-7score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 4:05Baugh 12-yd TD runFlorida leads 31-14Q2, 4:05 · Florida 31, Florida Atlantic 14▲2%Florida’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▲2%Florida’s chance to win, 98% to 100%▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q2, 4:00Veltkamp intercepted by Johnson at the FAU30Q2, 4:00 · Florida 31, Florida Atlantic 1431-14score after the play31-14score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 13:08Baugh 6-yd TD runFlorida leads 45-14Q3, 13:08 · Florida 45, Florida Atlantic 1445-14score after the play45-14score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q3, 4:21Philo 10-yd TD pass to ClarkFlorida leads 52-14Q3, 4:21 · Florida 52, Florida Atlantic 1452-14score after the play52-14score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
- Q4, 12:24Clark 4-yd TD runFlorida leads 59-21Q4, 12:24 · Florida 59, Florida Atlantic 2159-21score after the play59-21score after the play▶Watch from this playESPN College Football
Every drive
Florida scored on 10 of its 11 drives; Florida Atlantic on 3 of its 12.
Florida’s drives are teal, Florida Atlantic’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
“3rd and goal from the 28 is rough. Gaining back 25 of those yards on a busted run and then punching it in on a designed QB run on 4th is hilarious though.”
How fans reacted
Steady
Fans saved their loudest stretch for the second quarter.
The jump was steady; the crowd was steady.
What it cost
Florida’s chance to make the playoff rose from 14% to 16%.
Make the playoff
Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Florida 66, Florida Atlantic 21
Florida covered −26.5 by 18.5. The total, 87, went over 59.5.
| Team totals | Florida Atlantic | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 396 | 624 |
| Passing | 34 of 53, 276 yds | 20 of 26, 343 yds |
| Rushing | 37 for 120 yds | 41 for 281 yds |
| First downs | 25 | 30 |
| Third down | 11 of 22 | 5 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 3 | 1 |
| Penalties | 9 for 88 yds | 3 for 32 yds |
| Time of possession | 28:24 | 31:36 |
Florida Atlantic leaders
- Passing Caden Veltkamp 34 of 52, 276 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Leonard Farrow 10 for 51 yds; Ethan Ervin 16 for 50 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Kelby Valsin 10 for 92 yds, 1 TD; Easton Messer 7 for 73 yds
Florida leaders
- Passing Aaron Philo 16 of 21, 275 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Jadan Baugh 14 for 160 yds, 3 TD; Duke Clark 8 for 65 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Vernell Brown III 6 for 117 yds, 1 TD; Tawaski Abrams 1 for 63 yds
No rain and calm
81° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 4 mph from the southwest, gusts to 9
September game-day temperatures at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Gainesville Rgnl airport, 5.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Florida Atlantic · 4-8
Rated 108th in our preseason ratings.
L 3-42 vs East Carolina #39 of 667
lost by 39 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 45-48 vs UConn #74 of 667
lost by 3 as a 5.5-point underdog
L 24-35 @ TulaneTop 25 #57 of 667
lost by 11 as a 17.5-point underdog
W 40-21 vs Tulsa #164 of 667
won by 19 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 32-42 @ NavyTop 25 #87 of 667
lost by 10 as a 14.5-point underdog
L 13-48 @ South FloridaTop 25 #23 of 667
lost by 35 as a 20.5-point underdog
W 53-33 vs UAB #159 of 667
won by 20 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 27-21 @ Rice #133 of 667
won by 6 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 26-55 vs MemphisTop 25 #28 of 667
lost by 29 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 28-38 @ Florida International #109 of 667
lost by 10 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 56-14 vs Florida A&M #130 of 667
won by 42 as a 21.5-point favorite
L 7-39 @ Maryland #63 of 667
lost by 32 as a 13.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Florida · 4-8
Rated 22nd in our preseason ratings.
W 40-21 vs Florida StateTop 25 #36 of 667
won by 19 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 11-31 vs TennesseeTop 25 #10 of 667
lost by 20 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 24-34 @ Ole MissTop 25 #5 of 667
lost by 10 as an 11.5-point underdog
L 7-38 @ Kentucky #34 of 667
lost by 31 as a 5.5-point favorite
L 20-24 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667
lost by 4 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 23-21 vs Mississippi State #44 of 667
won by 2 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 17-34 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #10 of 667
lost by 17 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 29-21 vs TexasTop 25 #8 of 667
won by 8 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 7-26 @ MiamiTop 25 #7 of 667
lost by 19 as an 8.5-point underdog
L 10-20 @ LSUTop 25 #12 of 667
lost by 10 as a 5.5-point underdog
L 16-18 vs South FloridaTop 25 #45 of 667
lost by 2 as an 18.5-point favorite
W 55-0 vs Long Island University #202 of 667
won by 55 as a 46.5-point favorite
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Florida’s EPA/play against Florida Atlantic, 77 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Florida’s EPA/play against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Florida offense, 82nd percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 5th
Florida’s explosive plays against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Florida offense, 49th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 4th
Florida’s rushing EPA against Florida Atlantic’s defense
Florida offense, 55th percentile · Florida Atlantic defense, 5th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Florida leads the series 4-0
4 meetings since 2007 · Florida has won the last 4
- 2021Florida 35-14
- 2015Florida 20-14
- 2011Florida 41-3
- 2007Florida 59-20
Each line is Florida’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Florida Atlantic fans are in a better mood than Florida fans (85th vs 15th among FBS fanbases), even with Florida favored.
- Model · 90%
- Line · 98%
- Florida fans · 15th
- Florida Atlantic fans · 85th
Florida favored by 26.5 · Total 59.5
How games like this usually go
Florida by 26.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Florida.
The total rose 3 points.
Spread: −25.5 → −26.5 · Total: 56.5 → 59.5
The books’ cut: 3.7%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 84° at kickoff.
Florida Atlantic at Florida · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville
- 84°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 91weather score, Comfortable
- Bestof the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Ben Hill Griffin Stadium that day, a 12:45 pm kickoff would have scored 34, against 91 at 7:45 pm.
- noon: 36, Harsh
- 12:45 pm: 34, Harsh
- 2 pm: 46, Harsh
- 3:30 pm: 37, Harsh
- 6 pm: 70, Rough
- 7 pm: 83, Mixed
- 7:45 pm: 91, Comfortable (this game)
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Florida is worth +5.7 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 77th percentile.
70% at home, 45% on the road against FBS opponents (31-13 home, 17-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.3 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 264 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Florida 20, Florida Atlantic 14Nov 21, 2015