Navy11-2AP #222Newberry's third season arrives with Navy's 24-12 mark in hand — the kind of consistency that keeps a triple-option program in December.
Navy is the program where every man on the field has signed up to serve — and where a 17-16 December comeback over Army means more than any ranking the rest of the sport plays for.
Fans hear the option offense called a relic every December — and then watch the Midshipmen, with players half the size of their opponents, go 11-2 and beat a ranked Army team, and wait for the analyst…
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · vs Towson · Sat Sep 5 · 19:30 UTC
Navy is the Annapolis service academy whose triple-option offense + Army-Navy game + 2024 9-3 + Brian Newberry era keep the Midshipmen permanently in the December CFB calendar.
With 97% of its roster returning, Navy enters 2026 with a strong foundation but faces challenges due to three key departures. The team's #137 recruiting rank suggests limited upgrades in talent.
Bill the Goat watches the horizon.
the open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?
Newberry's third season arrives with Navy's 24-12 mark in hand — the kind of consistency that keeps a triple-option program in December.
Eli Heidenreich is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
Brian Newberry enters his third season with a 11-2 winning record, but a coordinator change and flat fan belief signal tension ahead as Navy aims to sustain its December relevance.
Navy enters 2025 at No. 46 in SP+ — top-quintile returning production and an 11-2 record under Brian Newberry raise expectations for sustained December relevance.
Alex Tecza: a short yardage signal screened this season.
Brandon Chatman is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Brennan Downing commits to Navy
CB pressure was already real with two draft exits and a #131 class rank — Newberry pulling a Florida Panhandle standout poised to start at South Walton tells you the portal window isn't the only pipeline he's working.
Top 3 commits
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
1st percentile among FBS programs
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Navy · Next-Season Outcome Band
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
Navy has climbed into dynasty-caliber territory — into the top 32% of FBS by power rating over the last three seasons, up from the top 39% a year ago. It is a 24-12 record over the last three regular seasons. A real, measurable rise in the model. The room has caught up; now the schedule has to agree.
The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.
The 'wait and see' counter -- power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
Navy: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 20 of 122 board posts (16%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Four of five. The board favors this trend.
Opens Sep 5
vs Towson · at home
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
PA leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 19 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
149 signees across 31 states, 2023-2026. FL leads the pull.
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
47 of 66 AP voters have them ranked, final AP ballot (2025) — from #16, Trevor Hass (Boston.com), to #25, Sean Reider (Albuquerque Journal). 19 voters left them off the ballot entirely.
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, final AP ballot, 2025 — 66 voters tracked.
12 games with TV coverage: 3 national broadcast, 5 ESPN, 4 cable
Kickoff windows: 4 noon, 6 afternoon, 2 primetime
78% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~49% league baseline.
7 of 9 forced fumbles recovered; 8 of 15 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
18% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~19% league average.
6 interceptions of 34 disrupted passes (28 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2025 only.
74 penalties committed, 57 drawn on opponents — ceding 180 yards of field position.
628 penalty yards committed vs. 448 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Fanbase Signals
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
What little we hear
Only 4 cohort(s) cleared the signal floor this week, so we won’t stage a split we can’t back. Here’s the honest read:
How Navy fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
Hasn’t even played a 9 game SEC schedule yet and already whining about it
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
~ our readNavy fans are down on the program, with a bit less hard evidence than most fanbases.
✓ counted We read 57 posts from Navy fans this week.
Fan mood across the 2025 season, both sides — our read
Shaded weeks show whose fanbase read warmer, our measure of what fans actually said, not a poll.
“Navy football makes history with thrilling win over Army Yahoo Sports”— google_news_navy
“Exactly. The defense gets bailed out by Blake once again. The back half our season is a gauntlet. This secondary needs to figure it the fuck out.”— r/CFB
“Navy Improves to 7-0 with a 42-32 Win over Florida Atlantic Naval Academy Athletics”— google_news_navy
“I wonder if in the very very low chance Navy wins out if it gets in over JMU for the G5 bid. What an absolute way for this class of seniors to go out. If we can get the supporting cast replaced next year, Woodson is going to be a baller. Great game USF”— r/CFB
Fanbase Health Index · Navy · high confidence
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Threat · +0.36 EPA/play | 11 | 12 | 97 / 159 | 61.0 | 1580 | 9.9 | 12 | 6 | 161.8 | 62.3 | 9.1 | 3.6 | |
Yards by week → Dual Threat· Money-downDangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back. saves his best for the money downs All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 10 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Rush yards / carry5.4 92th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage58.5% 100th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Blake Horvath's full player page | |||||||||||||
| +0.26 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 9 / 19 | 47.4 | 110 | 5.8 | 0 | 0 | 96.0 | 89.1 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.28 EPA/play | 46 | 13 | 158 | 902 #60 FBS | 5.7 | 10 #46 FBS | 76 | 20.3 | 14.4 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 11.8% (18/152) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry5.8 67th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.3% 78th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readAscending: his CFB Index score climbed from the 71st percentile to the 90th among FBS RBs | |||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.57 EPA/play | 22 | 13 | 51 | 941 #31 FBS | 18.5 | 6 #62 FBS | 82 | 19.6 | 24.6 | 50.0% (76/152) | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 100 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception18.6 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume51 81th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readSustained Ascent: his CFB Index score shows two real climbs in a row — 54th to 82nd to 97th percentile among FBS WRs | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.11 EPA/play | 24 | 13 | 17 | 159 | 9.4 | 0 | 27 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 16.4% (25/152) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception5.7 bottom 3th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Brandon Chatman's full player page | |||||||||||
| +1.46 EPA/play | 89 | 5 | 5 | 134 | 26.8 | 3 | 63 | 0 | 3.9 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 96 | 13 | 64 | 30 | 8 | 6 #74 FBS | 7 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. All-American — named 1st team by at least one NCAA-recognized selector. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% bottom 41th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Landon Robinson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 12 | 48 | 18 | 6.5 | 3 | 3 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.5% bottom 46th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 43rd percentile to the 96th among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| Versatile End | 90 | 13 | 42 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
Versatile EndNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 139 of 200 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · sophomore our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| 98 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 91 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 56 | 13 | 97 | 45 | 52 | 6.5 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume97 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile our readBreakout: his CFB Index score climbed from the 18th percentile to the 84th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 35 | 13 | 78 | 33 | 45 | 7 | 3.5 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume78 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate3.8% 67th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 58 | 13 | 78 | 35 | 43 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 13 of 21 games this season · junior View Coleman Cauley's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 14 | 13 | 44 | 21 | 23 | 2 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume44 bottom 41th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.5% bottom 25th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readFading: his CFB Index score climbed from the 84th percentile to the 34th among FBS LBs | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 49 | 12 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume33 bottom 27th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate12.1% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Adam Klenk's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 39 | 7 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · junior View Job Grant's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 12 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume27 bottom 20th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate13.0% 69th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kenneth McShan's full player page | |||||||||
| 53 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 16 | 13 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume81 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readReinvented: changed shape entirely — Hybrid Nickel to Box Safety, his CFB Index score moved from the 0th to 53rd percentile among FBS Ss | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 18 | 13 | 49 | 2 | 3 #56 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter TacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 42 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume49 92th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||
| Press Corner | 17 | 10 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
Press CornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 43 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Justin Ross's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 3 | 9 | 24 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Ball HawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 44 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate29.2% 95th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Ira Oniha's full player page | |||||||
| 1 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cover Corner | 28 | 4 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 141 of 270 classified this way. Played in 4 of 21 games this season · junior View Bryce Allen's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 13 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover CornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 141 of 270 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Andrew Duhart's full player page | |||||||
| 42 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 17 | 13 | 10/11 | 90.9 | 53/53 | 83 | 48 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 11 | 21 | 462 | 22 | 0 | 43 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.11 EPA/play | 24 | 13 | 6 | 50 | 8.3 | 0 | 18 |
2025 stat leaders
finalRoster
2025+11 more
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #23 | #257 | -42 | VMI | W 52–7 118 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #40 | #143 | -22.5 | UAB | W 38–24 119 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #36 | #113 | -13.5 | @Tulsa | W 42–23 143 | 3-0 | 2-0 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #30 | #97 | -14.5 | Rice | W 21–13 121 | 4-0 | 3-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #29 | #100 | -13.5 | Air Force | W 34–31 119 | 5-0 | 3-0 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #41 | #88 | -10.5 | @Temple | W 32–31 129 | 6-0 | 4-0 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #44 | #129 | -14.5 | Florida Atlantic | W 42–32 150 | 7-0 | 5-0 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #46 | #56 | +6.5 | @North Texas | L 17–31 127 | 7-1 | 5-1 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #59 | #3 | +30.5 | @Notre Dame | L 10–49 112 | 7-2 | 5-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #65 | #13 | +8.5 | South FloridaTop 25 win | W 41–38 141 | 8-2 | 6-1 |
| 14 | Nov 28 | #57 | #54 | +4 | @Memphis | W 28–17 134 | 9-2 | 7-1 |
| 16 | Dec 13 | #51 | #86 | -3.5 | Army (N) | W 17–16 110 | 10-2 | 8-1 |
| Bowl Season | ||||||||
| 18 | Jan 2 | #53 | #58 | -7.5 | Cincinnati (N) | W 35–13 | 11-2 | 8-1 |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2 | Cincinnati | W 35–13 | — | — | — | +0.208 | 50.7% | 96.6% | Best defensive stand |
| Dec 13 | Army | W 17–16 | 272 | 2 | 34:35 | +0.140 | 44.8% | 103.0% | One-score win |
| Nov 28 | @Memphis | W 28–17 | 300 | 1 | 35:29 | +0.120 | 45.1% | 99.2% | |
| Nov 15 | South Florida | W 41–38 | 524 | 1 | 35:11 | +0.283 | 38.4% | 174.0% | One-score win |
| Nov 9 | @Notre Dame | L 10–49 | 228 | 0 | 29:23 | +0.045 | 33.9% | 117.5% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 1 | @North Texas | L 17–31 | 391 | 3 | 32:13 | +0.081 | 50.0% | 105.9% | |
| Oct 25 | Florida Atlantic | W 42–32 | 503 | 1 | 33:14 | +0.244 | 55.6% | 112.5% | |
| Oct 11 | @Temple | W 32–31 | 384 | 0 | 25:58 | +0.428 | 46.3% | 144.7% | One-score win |
| Oct 4 | Air Force | W 34–31 | 519 | 1 | 27:32 | +0.607 | 42.6% | 195.1% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 27 | Rice | W 21–13 | 455 | 1 | 33:29 | +0.388 | 48.3% | 157.2% | One-score win |
| Sep 14 | @Tulsa | W 42–23 | 461 | 3 | 35:24 | +0.313 | 57.5% | 106.4% | |
| Sep 6 | UAB | W 38–24 | 463 | 0 | 32:22 | +0.570 | 60.3% | 124.8% | |
| Aug 30 | VMI | W 52–7 | 560 | 0 | 35:27 | +0.533 | 60.9% | 119.0% | Best success rate |
| Season average (13 games) | 422 | 1.1 | +0.305 | 48.8% | 127.4% | ||||
Navy fields an elite run-heavy offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
94th percentile quality, 17th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 90th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 89th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
95th percentile success on standard downs, 72nd on passing downs — a 23-point gap between the two.
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
1st-half offense ranks 96th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 87th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.30; 88th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.53 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Navy reads strongest in rushing epa (top 2%) and success rate (top 7%); the crux lives in explosive plays allowed, where Navy sits at the 5th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Most Similar Programs · Navy
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Navy · 2018-present
61% home win rate vs 45% on the road. margin runs +6.9 better at home. Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium seats 34,000, averaging 93% full (31,605 attendance, 21 games reported).
Positional competition · RB room
Alex Tecza and Shane Reynolds split the carries (157/170 vs 13/170) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Positional competition · WR/TE room
Eli Heidenreich (WR) and Cody Howard (TE) split the targets (72/78 vs 6/78) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Cody Howard produces in bigger chunks.
What changed
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved down 13 points. The rest held closer to steady.
The biggest shift: red-zone pass rate moved up 8 points. The rest held closer to steady.
Season by season
Defensive identity · pass zones
On short passes, Navy’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.7% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 159-play sample) — mid-pack, 100 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
65°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.
Based on 67 home games with weather data.
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
Navy's 2014–2025 record is 86-65. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
Week-by-week rivalry heat isn't tracked yet for this matchup — check back as the 2026-27 season approaches and real fan-intel signal accumulates.
Who's more worked up right now
Cross-fanbase rivalry sentiment for this matchup hasn't been measured yet this week — both sides show as neutral until real signal comes in.
THE LAST 5 · year-by-year
All-Time Record
since 1888 · 138 seasons · .530 win rate
Navy went 11-2 in 2025, won the Liberty Bowl, and beat a ranked Army team 17-16 on a December comeback — with an offense the rest of the sport stopped running thirty years ago, fielded by men who signed up to go to war after the final whistle.
The constraints are not a footnote to the Navy football story — they are the story. Every Midshipman on the field qualified for the Naval Academy, passed the physical, and committed to five years of active service after graduation. There is no transfer portal exit, no NIL bidding war, no escape hatch when the season goes sideways. The program wins with the triple option, a run-first, assignment-perfect attack the rest of the sport abandoned decades ago, executed by undersized future officers who simply outlast the defense in front of them. Roger Staubach won the 1963 Heisman here. Joe Bellino won it in 1960. Two Heismans in four years at a service academy — the constraints have never been the ceiling.
Third-year coach Brian Newberry took the Midshipmen to 11-2 in 2025 (7-1 American), the Liberty Bowl, and a 17-16 comeback over a ranked Army team in December — a second straight win in the series, retaining the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. Quarterback Blake Horvath powered the offense through that run and is now gone, the most consequential offseason question in Annapolis. The American Conference title has eluded Navy since joining the league in 2015; that is the one prize the program has chased through Newberry's first two years without claiming it.
The 2026 season will be defined by the post-Horvath transition. Can a new quarterback absorb the triple option fast enough to keep the Midshipmen in the American title race? The question is not unfamiliar in Annapolis — Navy has replaced quarterbacks before and kept winning — but the timing matters. A program entering its best sustained modern stretch cannot afford a regression year. The schedule will tell whether Newberry has built depth or a one-quarterback run.
The triple option — fullback-to-dive, option-keep, pitch — executed with a precision that compounds over four quarters. Navy does not run a modern spread, does not throw 40 times, does not rely on any individual matchup. The offense is a system, and the system requires a defense to play perfect assignment football for sixty minutes or it breaks at the seam. Brian Newberry inherited Ken Niumatalolo's playbook and has kept the identity intact: smaller, faster, more disciplined than the opponent, and willing to grind until the opponent makes the mistake.
Navy 2016–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (-0.05 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 2.
12 seasons on file
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 11-2 · AP #22
Navy: Ranked in the AP/Coaches polls, 16-25. National relevance achieved.
American Athletic Standing · 2025
Navy sits at the top of the American Athletic at 8-1. Everyone else is chasing.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Navy | 8-1 |
| 2 | Tulane | 8-1 |
| 3 | North Texas | 7-2 |
| 4 | East Carolina | 6-2 |
| 5 | South Florida | 6-2 |
| 6 | Memphis | 4-4 |
| 7 | UTSA | 4-4 |
| 8 | Army | 4-5 |
| 9 | Florida Atlantic | 3-5 |
| 10 | Temple | 3-5 |
| 11 | Rice | 2-6 |
| 12 | UAB | 2-6 |
| 13 | Tulsa | 1-7 |
| 14 | Charlotte | 0-8 |
Coaching Era · Navy
Brian Newberry has held the program for 4 seasons — the era is established.
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
since 1890
The Army-Navy game — first played 1890, only paused for World Wars — is one of CFB's most-storied rivalries. The Cadets corps + Brigade of Midshipmen perform full march-on, the Commander-in-Chief watches in person, the game's pageantry is unmatched. Every senior plays their last college game here.
since 1963
Roger Staubach's 1963 Heisman + 9-1 season + Cotton Bowl appearance + #2 final AP rank — the program's all-time peak. Staubach's post-Navy career (Cowboys + Hall of Fame) added permanent legacy. The Roger Staubach statue + retired #12 jersey + biographical canon are permanent Navy identity.
since 1893
Bill the Goat — Navy's costumed mascot since 1893 — is one of CFB's oldest live-animal-mascot traditions. The goat appears at every home game + the Army-Navy game + recruiting events. The 'Anchors Aweigh' fight song + Bill's stadium walk-on are permanent visuals.
Program memory
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
1963
Roger Staubach wins the Heisman and leads Navy to a Cotton Bowl and a national-title-game stage
2025
Navy rallies from 16-7 down to beat a ranked Army 17-16, its first consecutive wins in the series since 2014-15, retaining the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy
Moment of the Year · Navy · 2025
Week 18 of 2025. Postseason win — the season-defining moment.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Most recent: 2025 — win 13-35 (away). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.
NFL Draft Pipeline
2025–20263 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
Unit lineage
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Hired for 2026: Eric Lewis / co-Ricky Brown — not yet reflected in on-field data.
All-time top community posts · ranked by upvotes
Navy · Next-Season Outcome Band
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Fanbase Health Index · Navy · high confidence
2025 stat leaders
How They Play · 2025
Most Similar Programs · Navy
Season Standing · 2025 · 11-2 · AP #22
Coaching Era · Navy
Moment of the Year · Navy · 2025
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
NFL Draft Pipeline