North Texas at Navy
North Texas (4‑2) travels to Navy (2‑4), with North Texas favored by 2.5. The model gives North Texas a 80% shot. North Texas’s offense is at the 85th percentile on explosive plays; Navy’s defense is at the 3rd.
How they got here
Last three games
North Texas · 4-2
Rated 135th in our preseason ratings, 66th now, up 69 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
Last three games
Navy · 2-4
Rated 72nd in our preseason ratings, 67th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Biggest mismatch: North Texas’s explosive plays against Navy, 82 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
North Texas’s explosive plays against Navy’s defense
North Texas offense, 85th percentile · Navy defense, 3rd
North Texas’s passing EPA against Navy’s defense
North Texas offense, 95th percentile · Navy defense, 34th
North Texas’s EPA/play against Navy’s defense
North Texas offense, 92nd percentile · Navy defense, 35th
What’s at stake
North Texas
- North Texas is 1 game back in American Athletic with 5 left to make it up — 21% to win it with a win here, 10% with a loss.
- North Texas is coming off a 40-point win.
Navy
- Navy needs 4 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 6% to get there with a win here, 1% with a loss.
- Brian Newberry is behind Ken Niumatalolo’s year-4 pace (2-4 vs. 4-2) — a win here narrows the gap, a loss widens it.
The series
Navy leads the series 2-1
3 meetings since 2007 · North Texas won the last meeting
- 2025North Texas 31-17
- 2023Navy 27-24
- 2007Navy 74-62
Each line is Navy’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
North Texas
The chip · vs the blue bloodsFans note that the moment North Texas finally got good — the first ranking since 1959, 12 wins, a Burlsworth Trophy quarterback — a power-conference school simply reached down and took the coach and the QB, the way the big programs always do.
What this game touches
Built it, then watched it leave. Eric Morris took the Mean Green from afterthought to 12-2, a No. 24 ranking, and an American title-game berth — then left for Oklahoma State after the regular season, taking Burlsworth-winning QB Drew Mestemaker with him to Stillwater. Denton's best season ever ended with the architects walking out the door.
Navy
The chip · vs the national mediaFans hear the option offense called a relic every December — and then watch the Midshipmen, with players half the size of their opponents, go 11-2 and beat a ranked Army team, and wait for the analysts to admit the constraints are the point, not the excuse.
What this game touches
The recruiting math never changes. Navy can't outbid anyone in a transfer-portal, NIL era — every recruit must qualify for the Naval Academy and owe years of active service. The Midshipmen win in spite of constraints no other FBS program faces, and a down year is always one roster crunch away.
Best players
North Texas
- Tayven Jackson (QB) · 1,859 passing yards
- Jahiem White (RB) · 676 rushing yards
- Zakye Barker (LB) · 43 tackles
Navy
- Coleman Cauley (LB) · 49 tackles
- Jackson Gutierrez (QB) · 644 rushing yards
- Giuseppe Sessi (S) · 41 tackles
What to watch
Player to watch: Tayven Jackson (QB) — North Texas’s leading passer (1,859 passing yards) takes on Navy’s pass defense (34th percentile allowed).
The betting line, and the fans
Navy fans are in a better mood than North Texas fans (49th vs 35th among FBS fanbases), even with North Texas favored.
- Model · 20%
- Line · 42%
- Navy fans · 49th
- North Texas fans · 35th
North Texas favored by 2.5 · Total 62.5
North Texas by 2.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
North Texas’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 256 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Mild. No coat needed.
North Texas at Navy · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 3:30 pm ET · CBS Sports Network · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
- 60°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 7 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium: noon Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm 91, 7:30 pm 94.
- noon: 93, Comfortable
- 3:30 pm: 91, Comfortable
- 7:30 pm: 94, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Navy is worth +1.8 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 15th percentile.
57% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (23-17 home, 18-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 90 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,217 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Navy
- Wk 2Lat Florida Atlantic30-38
- Wk 4Lat UAB20-24
- Wk 5Lat Air Force9-14
- Wk 6Wvs Tulsa34-26
- Wk 7Lat UTSA34-38
North Texas
- Wk 2Wvs UNLV44-6
- Wk 3Lat Texas State35-49
- Wk 4Wvs Houston Christian63-14
- Wk 5Wat Tulsa45-44
- Wk 6Wvs Charlotte50-10
Power rating by week
North Texas is rated 0.1 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward North Texas.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +1.5 → +2.5 · Total: 61.5 → 62.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Navy13th1-3
- North Texas4th2-0
Last meeting in our History pages
- North Texas 31, Navy 17Nov 1, 2025