Air Force beats Navy 14-9
Air Force beat Navy 14-9. Share this game
We had Air Force favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: Listorti 4-yd run, fumbles (Q3, 0:44). Air Force went from 65% to 88% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Air Force a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Air Force was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.
Favored the whole way: Air Force never fell below 54%.
Navy never had better than a 46% chance.
Air Force 14-9 Navy
Air Force wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Navy 9-14 Air ForceNavy lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 2:01InterceptionSzarka intercepted by Seliga at the Navy 25, returned 12 yardsAir Force 89% → 69% (−20)
- 2Q3 0:44FumbleListorti 4-yd run, fumblesAir Force 65% → 88% (+23)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 2:01InterceptionSzarka intercepted by Seliga at the Navy 25, returned 12 yardsNavy 11% → 31% (+20)
- 2Q3 0:44FumbleListorti 4-yd run, fumblesNavy 35% → 12% (−23)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Air Force -2.5), at 65% for Air Force (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Air Force scored on 2 of its 11 drives; Navy on 2 of its 11.
Air Force’s drives are teal, Navy’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Navy’s side
Navy’s best moment: Szarka intercepted by Seliga at the Navy 25, returned 12 yards (Q3 2:01). It lifted Navy’s win chance by 20 points.
“B-21 emblem on the AF unis is sick”
When fans got loud
Busy
Fans were at their loudest with the game on the line.
The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.
Box score
Air Force 14, Navy 9
Air Force covered −2.5 by 2.5. The total, 23, stayed under 45.5.
| Team totals | Navy | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 253 | 270 |
| Passing | 8 of 18, 143 yds | 6 of 12, 82 yds |
| Rushing | 30 for 110 yds | 59 for 188 yds |
| First downs | 11 | 17 |
| Third down | 1 of 11 | 9 of 18 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 2 |
| Penalties | 5 for 45 yds | 2 for 20 yds |
| Time of possession | 23:59 | 36:01 |
Navy leaders
- Passing Jackson Gutierrez 7 of 15, 140 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Michael Barrow 9 for 44 yds; Jackson Gutierrez 12 for 33 yds
- Receiving Truman Brasfield 1 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Luke Hutchison 3 for 48 yds
Air Force leaders
- Passing Liam Szarka 6 of 11, 82 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Liam Szarka 25 for 81 yds, 2 TD; Gage LaDue 7 for 31 yds
- Receiving Jonah Dawson 3 for 39 yds; Simon Kibbee 2 for 23 yds
No rain through the game
73° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 59°, with about 7 in 10 games between 44° and 69°.
October game-day temperatures at Falcon Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Air Force Academy airport, 2.5 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
This is Commander-in-Chief (AF-Navy) — see the full head-to-head history →
Recent games
Last three games
Navy · 1-2
Rated 72nd in our preseason ratings, 79th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last three games
Air Force · 2-1
Rated 80th in our preseason ratings, 88th now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Air Force
- Wk 1Wvs Duquesne34-0
- Wk 2Lvs North Dakota State32-38
- Wk 4Wat Nevada36-33
Navy
- Wk 1Wvs Towson42-15
- Wk 2Lat Florida Atlantic30-38
- Wk 4Lat UAB20-24
Power rating by week
Navy is rated 0.5 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Air Force’s EPA/play against Navy, 44 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Air Force’s EPA/play against Navy’s defense
Air Force offense, 79th percentile · Navy defense, 35th
Air Force’s passing EPA against Navy’s defense
Air Force offense, 0th percentile · Navy defense, 34th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Air Force leads the series 34-24
58 meetings since 1960 · Navy has won the last 2
- 2025Navy 34-31
- 2024Navy 34-7
- 2023Air Force 17-6
- 2022Air Force 13-10
- 2021Air Force 23-3
Each line is Air Force’s chance to win through that meeting. Air Force is 2-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Air Force fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (37th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.
Air Force favored by 2.5 · Total 45.5
How games like this usually go
Air Force by 2.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Air Force.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −1.5 → −2.5 · Total: 49.5 → 45.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 76° at kickoff.
Navy at Air Force · Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026 · Falcon Stadium, Colorado Springs
- 76°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 93weather score, Comfortable
- 2ndroughest of the day's 4 kickoff times
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 4 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second roughest of the day's four kickoff times. At Falcon Stadium that day, a 5:30 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 93 at 10 am.
The roughest kickoff time is the lowest of the day's times. It can still be Mixed or Comfortable.
- 10 am: 93, Comfortable (this game)
- 2 pm: 86, Mixed
- 4 pm: 96, Comfortable
- 5:30 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Oct. 3, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Air Force is worth +2.5 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 23rd percentile.
63% at home, 51% on the road against FBS opponents (26-15 home, 22-21 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.7 at home vs. away over 92 games — inside the ±5.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
6,643 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 1,515 miles to get here.
Last meeting in our History pages
- Navy 34, Air Force 31Oct 4, 2025
Our History pages cover 11 of their meetings since 2015.