Regular season ·
Navy beat Air Force
Records are after this game.
Navy beat Air Force by 3 points.
How the game turned
Q4 12:55 Navy 31, Air Force 24
Navy 92% to win
Horvath 60-yd TD pass to Heidenreich, Navy goes ahead 31-24
Big moments
- 1Q1 11:22 · Navy 3, Air Force 0Navy's win chance rose from 88% to 89%.Kirkwood 39-yd field goal, Navy goes ahead 3-0
- 2Q1 9:14 · Navy 3, Air Force 7Navy's win chance fell from 83% to 81%.Szarka 7-yd TD run, Air Force goes ahead 7-3
- 3Q2 4:02 · Navy 17, Air Force 10Navy's win chance rose from 84% to 94%.Horvath 80-yd TD pass to Heidenreich, Navy goes ahead 17-10
- 4Q3 5:52 · Navy 24, Air Force 17Navy's win chance rose from 81% to 91%.Horvath 59-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 24-17
- 5Q4 12:55 · Navy 31, Air Force 24Navy's win chance rose from 75% to 92%.Horvath 60-yd TD pass to Heidenreich, Navy goes ahead 31-24
- 6Q4 10:59 · Navy 31, Air Force 31Navy's win chance fell from 91% to 75%.Szarka 53-yd TD pass to Dawson, ties it 31-31
- 7Q4 6:47 · Navy 34, Air Force 31Navy's win chance rose from 76% to 86%.Kirkwood 34-yd field goal, Navy goes ahead 34-31
Navy was never below a 59 percent chance to win. Win chance is our own calculation from the play-by-play, with each game's start set from the pregame expectation.
The biggest swing
With 12:55 left in the 4th quarter, Navy's chance to win went from 75 percent to 92 percent when Navy scored a touchdown.
The score went from Navy 24, Air Force 24 to Navy 31, Air Force 24.
The play: Horvath 60-yd TD pass to Heidenreich, Navy goes ahead 31-24.
What happened next
Navy's next game: W 32-31 at Temple, Oct 11
7 days laterAir Force's next game: L 48-51 at UNLV, Oct 11
7 days laterThe teams' next meeting after Oct 4, 2025: Air Force 14, Navy 9, Oct 3, 2026
about 12 months later
Related pages
Scores, dates and the stage: ESPN. Win chance: our curve from play-by-play; the turn is its largest one-play change that moved with the score.