Air Force beats Northern Illinois 28-7
Team pages: Air Force · Northern Illinois
Air Force beat Northern Illinois 28-7. Share this game
We had Air Force favored. It won.
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Air Force a 68% chance, and the closing betting line (Air Force was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.
Favored the whole way: Air Force never fell below 60%.
Northern Illinois never had better than a 40% chance.
Air Force 28-7 Northern Illinois
Air Force wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Northern Illinois 7-28 Air ForceNorthern Illinois lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:58Johnson 9-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Air Force 73% → 60% (−13)
- 2Q2 0:41Medders 4-yd TD run, Air Force goes ahead 14-7Air Force 67% → 80% (+13)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 7:58Johnson 9-yd TD run, ties it 7-7Northern Illinois 27% → 40% (+13)
- 2Q2 0:41Medders 4-yd TD run, Air Force goes ahead 14-7Northern Illinois 33% → 20% (−13)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Air Force -7), at 61% for Air Force (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Air Force scored on 4 of its 7 drives; Northern Illinois on 1 of its 7.
Air Force’s drives are teal, Northern Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Northern Illinois’s side
Northern Illinois’s best moment: Johnson 9-yd TD run, ties it 7-7 (Q2 7:58). It lifted Northern Illinois’s win chance by 13 points.
What it cost
Northern Illinois’s chance to win the conference fell from 1% to 0%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Air Force 28, Northern Illinois 7
Air Force covered −7 by 14. The total, 35, stayed under 48.5.
| Team totals | Air Force | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 433 | 253 |
| Passing | 0 of 1, -6 yds | 13 of 20, 140 yds |
| Rushing | 67 for 439 yds | 23 for 113 yds |
| First downs | 26 | 13 |
| Third down | 10 of 13 | 3 of 9 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 3 for 24 yds | 4 for 35 yds |
| Time of possession | 39:09 | 20:51 |
Air Force leaders
- Passing Kemper Hodges 0 of 1, 0 yds
- Rushing Evan Medders 16 for 114 yds, 2 TD; Owen Allen 13 for 100 yds, 2 TD
Northern Illinois leaders
- Passing Taron Dickens 13 of 20, 140 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Telly Johnson Jr. 8 for 47 yds, 1 TD; Taron Dickens 7 for 33 yds
- Receiving DeAree Rogers 7 for 81 yds; La'Don Bryant 3 for 35 yds
No rain through the game
69° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Game-day temperatures at Huskie Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Where this weather comes from
Measured at De Kalb airport, 3.7 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Air Force · 3-1
Rated 80th in our preseason ratings, 83rd now.
3-1 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Northern Illinois · 0-4
Rated 101st in our preseason ratings, 130th now.
4 straight losses.
Week by week
Northern Illinois
- Wk 1Lat Iowa0-40
- Wk 2Lvs Illinois State24-28
- Wk 3Lat Arizona17-42
- Wk 4Lat Georgia State14-35
Air Force
- Wk 1Wvs Duquesne34-0
- Wk 2Lvs North Dakota State32-38
- Wk 4Wat Nevada36-33
- Wk 5Wvs Navy14-9
Power rating by week
Air Force is rated 3.4 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Air Force’s passing EPA against Northern Illinois, 100 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Air Force’s passing EPA against Northern Illinois’s defense
Air Force offense, 0th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 100th
Air Force’s success rate against Northern Illinois’s defense
Air Force offense, 89th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 1st
Air Force’s explosive plays against Northern Illinois’s defense
Air Force offense, 4th percentile · Northern Illinois defense, 53rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Northern Illinois fans are in a better mood than Air Force fans (93rd vs 47th among FBS fanbases), even with Air Force favored.
Air Force favored by 7 · Total 48.5
How games like this usually go
Air Force by 7, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Northern Illinois.
The total rose 2 points.
Spread: +7.5 → +7 · Total: 46.5 → 48.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Northern Illinois is worth +1.7 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 14th percentile.
39% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (15-23 home, 19-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.0 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 867 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Northern Illinois8th0-0
- Air Force7th1-1