Illinois State at Northern Illinois
Fan take
Illinois State fans
Northern Illinois fans
How they got here
Last two games
Illinois State · 2-0
Picked #127 in the preseason · now #123 — about right.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 41–10 @ Western Illinois #157 of 669
won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 76–0 vs St. Francis (IL)
Last three games · 2025 season
Northern Illinois · 3-9
Picked #101 in the preseason · now #66 — better than expected.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 31–35 vs Kent State #203 of 668
lost by 4 as a 5.5-point favorite
L 19–35 vs Western Michigan #65 of 668
lost by 16 as a 7-point underdog
W 45–3 @ Massachusetts #263 of 668
won by 42 as a 9.5-point favorite
L 3–42 @ Toledo #37 of 668
lost by 39 as a 15.5-point underdog
W 21–7 vs Ball State #205 of 668
won by 14 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 21–48 @ Ohio #68 of 668
lost by 27 as a 11.5-point underdog
L 10–16 @ Eastern Michigan #179 of 668
lost by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 14–25 vs Miami (OH) #56 of 668
lost by 11 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 3–6 vs San Diego State #71 of 668
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 10–38 @ Mississippi State #61 of 668
lost by 28 as a 24.5-point underdog
L 9–20 @ Maryland #106 of 668
lost by 11 as a 16.5-point underdog
W 19–17 vs Holy Cross #159 of 668
won by 2 as a 13.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Illinois State
- Illinois State needs 4 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- A win would be one of Illinois State’s biggest of the season — a 57-spot gap in the power ratings.
Northern Illinois
- Northern Illinois hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent since 2024.
The series
Northern Illinois leads the series 10-5
15 meetings since 1972 · Illinois State won the last meeting
- 2026Illinois State 28–24
- 2019Northern Illinois 24–10
- 2000Northern Illinois 52–0
- 1992Northern Illinois 26–19
- 1991Northern Illinois 27–24
Best players
Northern Illinois
- Kimar Nelson (LB) · 19 tackles
- Jack Murray (LB) · 18 tackles
- Kyon Conyers (S) · 14 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Northern Illinois’s chances here.
Home +2.5 · O/U 47.5
Conditions
78°F · 9 mph wind · Clear
Northern Illinois is worth +1.5 points (±3.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile.
41% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (15–22 home, 19–29 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.6 at home vs. away over 74 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 99 miles to get here.
Illinois State 28 – Northern Illinois 24
Missed — picked Northern Illinois, Illinois State won.
Recent games
Northern Illinois
- Wk 1Lat Iowa0-40
Illinois State
- Wk 1Wvs St. Francis (IL)76-0
- Wk 1Wat Western Illinois41-10
Trajectory
Illinois State upset the pregame pick, beating Northern Illinois 28-24.