Navy beats Tulsa 34-26
Navy beat Tulsa 34-26. Share this game
We had Navy favored. It won.
How it swung
The turning point: Gutierrez 4-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 27-26 (Q4, 8:30). Navy went from 46% to 63% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Navy a 62% chance, and the closing betting line (Navy was a 3-point favorite) put it at 60%.
Navy came back from 13 down, at one point just an 18% chance in the third quarter.
Tulsa led by 13, was as high as 82% in the third quarter, and still lost.
Tulsa · Q1 1:39
Navy 34-26 TulsaNavy wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Tulsa 26-34 NavyTulsa lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:39Singleton 10-yd TD pass to Wells, Tulsa goes ahead 14-7Navy 53% → 38% (−15)
- 2Q4 8:30Gutierrez 4-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 27-26Navy 46% → 63% (+17)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 1:39Singleton 10-yd TD pass to Wells, Tulsa goes ahead 14-7Tulsa 47% → 62% (+15)
- 2Q4 8:30Gutierrez 4-yd TD run, Navy goes ahead 27-26Tulsa 54% → 37% (−17)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Navy -3), at 68% for Navy (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Navy scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Tulsa on 5 of its 11.
Navy’s drives are teal, Tulsa’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Tulsa’s side
Tulsa’s best moment: Singleton 10-yd TD pass to Wells, Tulsa goes ahead 14-7 (Q1 1:39). It lifted Tulsa’s win chance by 15 points.
The winner fell to 14%.
What it cost
Tulsa’s chance to win the conference fell from 3% to 1%.
Win the conference
Before the game (October 9, 2026) → after this result, in our model.
Box score
Navy 34, Tulsa 26
Navy covered −3 by 5. The total, 60, went over 47.5.
| Team totals | Tulsa | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 376 | 481 |
| Passing | 21 of 36, 278 yds | 5 of 7, 95 yds |
| Rushing | 28 for 98 yds | 67 for 386 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 24 |
| Third down | 7 of 16 | 8 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 4 |
| Penalties | 2 for 20 yds | 2 for 19 yds |
| Time of possession | 25:29 | 34:31 |
Tulsa leaders
- Passing Baylor Hayes 20 of 35, 268 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Javon Ross 2 for 36 yds; Trequan Jones 8 for 24 yds
- Receiving Javon Ross 7 for 90 yds; Oran Singleton Jr. 5 for 81 yds, 1 TD
Navy leaders
- Passing Jackson Gutierrez 5 of 7, 95 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Jackson Gutierrez 41 for 232 yds, 3 TD; Michael Barrow 14 for 107 yds
- Receiving Truman Brasfield 1 for 58 yds, 1 TD; Vic Listorti 1 for 17 yds
No rain through the game
70° at kickoff · no rain recorded
October game-day temperatures at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Annapolis airport, 1.1 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Tulsa · 3-2
Rated 107th in our preseason ratings, 111th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Navy · 1-3
Rated 72nd in our preseason ratings, 74th now.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Navy
- Wk 1Wvs Towson42-15
- Wk 2Lat Florida Atlantic30-38
- Wk 4Lat UAB20-24
- Wk 5Lat Air Force9-14
Tulsa
- Wk 1Wvs Oklahoma State24-10
- Wk 2Wat Sam Houston23-17
- Wk 3Wvs East Texas A&M42-0
- Wk 4Lat Arkansas6-34
- Wk 5Lvs North Texas44-45
Power rating by week
Navy is rated 2.9 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Tulsa’s success rate against Navy, 48 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Tulsa’s explosive plays against Navy’s defense
Tulsa offense, 50th percentile · Navy defense, 3rd
Tulsa’s success rate against Navy’s defense
Tulsa offense, 26th percentile · Navy defense, 74th
Navy’s rushing EPA against Tulsa’s defense
Navy offense, 90th percentile · Tulsa defense, 50th
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Navy leads the series 9-2
11 meetings since 2004 · Navy has won the last 3
- 2025Navy 42-23
- 2022Navy 53-21
- 2021Navy 20-17
- 2020Tulsa 19-6
- 2019Navy 45-17
Each line is Navy’s chance to win through that meeting. Navy is 2-0 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Tulsa fans are in a better mood than Navy fans (73rd vs 22nd among FBS fanbases), even with Navy favored.
Navy favored by 3 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Navy by 3, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Navy.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −2.5 → −3 · Total: 48.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Navy is worth +1.8 points (±4.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 15th percentile.
57% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (23-17 home, 18-26 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.6 at home vs. away over 90 games — inside the ±6.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 1,080 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.