Tulsa beats Rice 38-17
Tulsa beat Rice 38-17. Share this game
We had Tulsa favored. It won.
Next: Tulsa vs Army, Fri Oct 23 · 8:30 PM ET · Tulsa favored by 1.5
Next: Rice at Florida Atlantic, Sat Oct 24 · 12:00 PM ET · Rice underdog by 7.5
How it swung
The turning point: Brown 78-yd TD run, Rice leads 17-7 (Q2, 10:59). Tulsa went from 46% to 22% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Tulsa a 60% chance, and the closing betting line (Tulsa was a 3.5-point favorite) put it at 61%.
Tulsa came back from 10 down, at one point just a 21% chance in the second quarter.
Rice led by 10, was as high as 79% in the second quarter, and still lost.
Rice · Q2 10:5931 unanswered
Tulsa · Q2 0:33Tulsa 38-17 RiceTulsa wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Rice 17-38 TulsaRice lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 10:59Brown 78-yd TD run, Rice leads 17-7Tulsa 46% → 22% (−24)
- 2Q2 0:33Hayes 8-yd TD pass to Singleton, Tulsa goes ahead 21-17Tulsa 45% → 66% (+21)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 10:59Brown 78-yd TD run, Rice leads 17-7Rice 54% → 79% (+25)
- 2Q2 0:33Hayes 8-yd TD pass to Singleton, Tulsa goes ahead 21-17Rice 55% → 34% (−21)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Tulsa -3.5), at 51% for Tulsa (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Tulsa scored on 6 of its 10 drives; Rice on 3 of its 10.
Tulsa’s drives are teal, Rice’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Rice’s side
Rice’s best moment: Brown 78-yd TD run, Rice leads 17-7 (Q2 10:59). It lifted Rice’s win chance by 24 points.
Box score
Tulsa 38, Rice 17
Tulsa covered −3.5 by 17.5. The total, 55, went over 47.5.
| Team totals | Tulsa | Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 401 | 351 |
| Passing | 20 of 27, 249 yds | 4 of 8, 62 yds |
| Rushing | 36 for 152 yds | 54 for 289 yds |
| First downs | 22 | 19 |
| Third down | 6 of 11 | 4 of 11 |
| Fourth down | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | 6 for 63 yds | 7 for 75 yds |
| Time of possession | 30:28 | 29:32 |
Tulsa leaders
- Passing Baylor Hayes 20 of 27, 249 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Trequan Jones 12 for 77 yds, 1 TD; Damari Alston 12 for 52 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Oran Singleton Jr. 7 for 87 yds, 1 TD; David Wells Jr. 2 for 52 yds
Rice leaders
- Passing Jacurri Brown 2 of 6, 47 yds
- Rushing Jacurri Brown 11 for 154 yds, 2 TD; Tyvonn Byars 15 for 53 yds
- Receiving Jordan Clark 3 for 52 yds; Payton Matthews 1 for 10 yds
No rain through the game
68° at kickoff · no rain recorded
The usual here around this date is 75°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 83°.
October game-day temperatures at Rice Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
Jump to
Where this weather comes from
Measured at Houston Dunn airport, 0.9 miles away, and Houston/will Hobby airport, 9.4 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Tulsa · 3-3
Rated 107th in our preseason ratings, 111th now.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Rice · 1-5
Rated 181st in our preseason ratings, 133rd now, up 48 spots.
Three straight losses.
Week by week
Rice
- Wk 2Lat Notre Dame0-52
- Wk 3Lvs Western Michigan21-28
- Wk 4Lat Fresno State24-38
- Wk 5Lvs UTSA14-16
- Wk 6Lat East Carolina12-28
Tulsa
- Wk 2Wat Sam Houston23-17
- Wk 3Wvs East Texas A&M42-0
- Wk 4Lat Arkansas6-34
- Wk 5Lvs North Texas44-45
- Wk 6Lat Navy26-34
Power rating by week
Tulsa is rated 1.9 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Matchups
Biggest mismatch: Rice’s explosive plays against Tulsa, 46 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Rice’s EPA/play against Tulsa’s defense
Rice offense, 9th percentile · Tulsa defense, 54th
Rice’s passing EPA against Tulsa’s defense
Rice offense, 1st percentile · Tulsa defense, 42nd
Rice’s explosive plays against Tulsa’s defense
Rice offense, 27th percentile · Tulsa defense, 73rd
Season profile, all the rows
Season profile
The series
Tulsa leads the series 10-9-1
20 meetings since 1937 · Rice has won the last 2
- 2023Rice 42-10
- 2013Rice 30-27
- 2012Tulsa 28-24
- 2011Tulsa 38-20
- 2010Tulsa 64-27
Each line is Rice’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Tulsa fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (76th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
Tulsa favored by 3.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Tulsa by 3.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Tulsa.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +3 → +3.5 · Total: 46.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Rice is worth +3.1 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 30th percentile.
35% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (15-28 home, 10-36 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.3 at home vs. away over 96 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 446 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.