Oklahoma State1-11

Oklahoma State fans are split on what comes next.

belief cooled ↓ 11.8vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
51/100 · 241 mentions
~ our read
Grounding
about average
8% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our read
Volatility
Chaotic
σ 21 pts
~ our read
The model
#114
CFB Zeitgeist · -5.1
✓ measured
Explore all 9 corners of the fanbase ↓
Hope-Doping·Offseason

Oklahoma State spent twenty years as Mike Gundy's program — then fired him three games into a 1-11 collapse and handed a flattened roster to Eric Morris, the first sitting FBS coach Stillwater has ever hired.

Title DroughtSince 2011 · 14 yrs

The fanbase spent a generation insisting Stillwater was its own program, not a satellite of the school 80 miles south. A 1-11 season handed Oklahoma every easy joke — and the room is daring Morris to…

offseason · quiet
Read the full program story ↓

Roster Reload - Oklahoma State

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06
Returning Production44%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#49 nationally247 composite 702.7
Portal Additions55Primary repair: DL
Portal Losses65Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#69Depth class
WRin 7 - Wyatt Young4.38out 12 - Shamar Rigby3.80Starter Risk
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 7 - Ashton Lepo3.60out 6 - Markell Samuel3.60Upgrade
CBin 6 - Trudell Berry3.60out 5 - JK Johnson3.60Upgrade
current room: 186 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sin 5 - Quinton Hammonds3.60out 6 - Landyn Cleveland3.60Downgrade
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 4 - James Williams3.70out 6 - Wendell Gregory4.38Starter Risk
current room: 268 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 6 - Jerry Lawson3.80out 3 - De'Marion Thomas3.60Need Filled
current room: 311 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
2020 season2019 seasonW 44-20 vs South Dakota State (Wk 1)W 39-31 vs Arkansas (Wk 2)L 19-22 vs Utah (Wk 4)L 20-42 vs Kansas State (Wk 5)L 35-38 vs BYU (Wk 8)L 28-38 vs Baylor (Wk 9)HIGHLOW
2024 season2019 seasonW 16-7 vs Tulsa (Wk 3)W 27-13 vs West Virginia (Wk 4)W 47-7 vs Kansas (Wk 5)W 24-21 vs Iowa State (Wk 8)L 34-41 vs Texas (Wk 9)W 20-18 vs Kansas State (Wk 10)L 13-41 vs Oklahoma (Wk 12)W 50-44 vs Texas Tech (Wk 13)L 22-29 vs TCU (Wk 14)W 42-3 vs Baylor (Wk 15)W 37-34 vs Miami (Wk 18)HIGHLOW
2024 season2020 seasonW 52-36 vs Oregon State (Wk 1)W 56-14 vs McNeese (Wk 2)W 40-21 vs Tulsa (Wk 3)L 30-36 vs Texas (Wk 4)W 26-13 vs Kansas State (Wk 5)L 35-45 vs Texas Tech (Wk 6)L 27-45 vs Baylor (Wk 8)W 34-27 vs Iowa State (Wk 9)W 34-27 vs TCU (Wk 10)W 31-13 vs Kansas (Wk 12)W 20-13 vs West Virginia (Wk 13)L 16-34 vs Oklahoma (Wk 14)L 21-24 vs Texas A&M (Wk 18)HIGHLOW
2020 offseason2019 offseasonWire: Development class ranked 53rd nationally but WR pressure is real — Lewis slots into a backfield…Story arc: Choctaw linebacker Israel Hammons commits to Oklahoma State. What it means for…Story arc: Oklahoma State partners with Osage Nation for jersey patch dealWk 39Wk 4468th29th
2024 season · 3W-9L2020 season · 8W-3L2019 season · 8W-5L2025 offseason · fan confidence percentile
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasonsWire eventStory arc

Approaching

30 days

until kickoff · at Tulsa · Sat Sep 5 · 19:45 UTC

The experience

Oklahoma State is the program that lived in Mike Gundy's mullet for 20 years and built a Big 12 identity around being not-Oklahoma.

Offense: PoorDefense: PoorDefensive shape: Gives up the big play
2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

Oklahoma State faces a high-volatility season with heavy roster turnover

The team returns only 44% of its roster, with significant losses in key positions like WR and DL, and a recruiting rank of #69.

  • Roster reloadOklahoma State has a returning_total_pct of 44, indicating low continuity and heavy reload.
Data as of 2026-08-01 · Validated against program evidence

Pistol Pete watches the horizon.

Oklahoma State · the story right now 9 storylines developing

What Oklahoma State's transfer portal class is really about

the open questionis the portal class enough to move the needle?

portal2025-06-22~readnew

Kyran Duhon and Wendell Gregory arrive as Oklahoma State's top-3 Big 12 portal class tries to salvage a 1-11 season with Mike Gundy's identity on the line.

what happenedOklahoma State signed a top-20 transfer-portal class — 40 additions headlined by Hauss Hejny (QB) from TCU and Banks Bowen (QB) from Tulsa. ✓ fact
the contexta top-2 portal class in the Big 12 this cycle
narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle✓ factnew

Eric Morris took over as Oklahoma State's head coach, replacing Mike Gundy.

the contextreplaces 6-year head coach Mike Gundy (38-34)
narrative tension · our read
market_swing2026-07-18~readnew

Mike Gundy's 10th season opens with a 1-11 losing record and a #49 talent rank, raising questions about whether Oklahoma State can cross into bowl eligibility with its current trajectory.

what happenedOklahoma State win total rose from 5.5 to 6.5 (+1 wins) between Jul 17 and Jul 18, 2026 (tier C). ✓ fact
the contextwin total up 1.0 — crosses into bowl eligibility territory
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle✓ factnew

Kalib Hicks sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline -- the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.

narrative tension · our read
deep threatthis cycle~attributednew

Gavin Freeman is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.

narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew

Rodney Fields Jr. does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.

narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew

Oklahoma State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew

Oklahoma State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.

narrative tension · our read
portal2026-05-17~readnew

Gundy's second straight top-10 portal class arrives after a 1-11 season with 44% production returning — Mestemaker and Hawkins fill holes in a program defined by defiance.

what happenedOklahoma State signed a top-3 transfer-portal class — 55 additions headlined by Drew Mestemaker (QB) from North Texas and Grant Jordan (QB) from Massachusetts. ✓ fact
the contextthe largest transfer-portal haul in FBS this cycle (55 additions)
narrative tension · our read

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedOklahoma State's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →

The Offseason Ledger · Oklahoma State

5 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news
  1. News

    Oklahoma State's Iman Oates granted temporary restraining order in eligibility case against NCAA

    A temporary restraining order forcing the NCAA's hand on a 2022 athlete's eligibility isn't just one player's fight — Morris gets a potential depth add at WR while a class ranked 69th nationally needs every live body it can claim.

    Jul 31Official
  2. Portal

    S Markeith Williams transfer commits from Miami

    Safety room bled 12 out and added 10 back, but Landyn Cleveland's exit left a starter-shaped hole — Williams coming out of Miami's ACC program is the answer Gundy needed at the top of that depth chart.

    May 17CFBD /player/portal
  3. News

    Win total: 5.5 → 6.5 (▲1)

    Win total jumped from 5.5 to 6.5 with conference peers flat — the books see something program-specific.

    Jul 18
  4. Portal

    CB Jeremiah Piper transfer commits from Youngstown State

    Twelve in, ten out — the CB room churned all offseason, and Piper is the FCS tape Gundy's staff bet on to actually stick in Big 12 competition after losing JK Johnson.

    May 16CFBD /player/portal
  5. Recruiting

    RB T.J. Lewis commits to Oklahoma State

    Development class ranked 53rd nationally but WR pressure is real — Lewis slots into a backfield where Eric Morris needs controllable pieces while the portal class settles in around him.

    Jun 27Official

Transfer portal snapshot

+3.6 net portal points
(raw ledger: -35.5 — unweighted, no position adjustment)
WR
-15.6
starter risk
IOL
-14.5
starter risk
DL
+10.9
need not filled
EDGE
-7.9
starter risk
TE
-6.9
starter risk
CB
+3.8
LB
+3.7
OT
+3.2
S
-3.2
QB
-3.1
starter risk
K
-2.4
P
-2.3
RB
-2.3
LS
+1.0

Top 3 commits

2026 class
★★★☆☆
KD Jones
RB · Jenks, OK
#527 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 15 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Braeden Presley
S · Bixby, OK
#731 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Kole Seaton
OT · Mesquite, TX
#833 national

Fan confidence a bit lower than recent years

31st percentile among FBS programs

Fan vs. market
31st
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(41st among FBS)
Fan mood aligned with market consensus
Win total consensus · 3 books

Market outlook

Season expectations

Win total3 booksO/U 6.5▲1 since Jul 2026
CFP championship#46 in field+6000
Big 12 title#8 in market+2500

Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06

Oklahoma State · Next-Season Outcome Band

Floor / Base / Ceiling

floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

How the room reactedreal evidence · tap rooms to explore
Following now · Oklahoma State · Transfer portal Confidence

Oklahoma State signed a top-20 portal class — Hauss Hejny headlines the class. Fall camp is the real verdict.

Oklahoma State signed a top-20 transfer-portal class — 40 additions headlined by Hauss Hejny (QB) from TCU and Banks Bowen (QB) from Tulsa. It is a top-2 portal class in the Big 12 this cycle. Portal pickups are proven college players — the split isn't about development, it's about whether they fit the scheme and win their position battles. Coverage is split on whether volume or positional fit is the bigger story.

bullish — but with real dissent where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics1 doubt take
Believers8 bull takes
💬 fans: 2% volume · negative overall
Developing4 new this week
2 days agoThis ‘Underestimated’ Oklahoma State Cowgirls Transfer Will be a ‘Big Problem’ — Sports Illustrated
4 days agoPlayer Previews: Can Oklahoma State Transfer Eric Fletcher win the CB2 Job? — Sports Illustrated
6 days agoOklahoma State's Iman Oates granted temporary restraining order in eligibility case against NCAA — Official
6 days agoEvery Transfer Expected to Make an Immediate Impact for Oklahoma State Football — Yahoo Sports
2 weeks agoWin total: 5.5 → 6.5 (▲1)
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Hauss Hejny QB · TCU
Banks Bowen QB · Tulsa
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Kyran Duhon and Wendell Gregory arrive as Oklahoma State's top-3 Big 12 portal class tries to salvage a 1-11 season with Mike Gundy's identity on the line.
Source of record: Oklahoma State signed a top-20 transfer-portal class — 40 additions headlined by Hauss Hejny (QB) from TCU and Banks Bowen (QB) from Tulsa — a top-2 portal class in the Big 12 this cycle.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards thin
📣Believers8 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.

The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.

“Player Previews: Can Oklahoma State Transfer Eric Fletcher win the CB2 Job?”
Player Previews · Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-02 · read ↗
“Oklahoma State Didn't Win the Transfer Portal—It Won the Retention Battle”
roundtable.io · 2026-07-26 · read ↗
“Drew Mestemaker boosted his draft stock by transferring to Oklahoma St”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-07-12 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“This ‘Underestimated’ Oklahoma State Cowgirls Transfer Will be a” — the real counter.

The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.

“This ‘Underestimated’ Oklahoma State Cowgirls Transfer Will be a ‘Big Problem’”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
💬The boards10 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (69%).

Only 10 of 526 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"Hey Y’all!! I’m a transfer sophomore, I haven’t heard anything about my housing yet!! I know it’s really late, i’m a huge procrastinator but I don’t know what to do!! If anyone has"
r/OKState ~ fan take
"So I am a senior NSE (national student exchange) incoming student from LSU to try out OSU and see if i like any of their future masters programs... I made the mistake of submitting"
r/OKState ~ fan take

Board health this week (253 posts): 21% positive · 47% neutral · 32% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

Following now · Oklahoma State · Coaching Confidence

The Eric Morris story at Oklahoma State won't sit still.

Eric Morris took over as Oklahoma State's head coach, replacing Mike Gundy. It is replaces 6-year head coach Mike Gundy (38-34). It's not the hire that's the story anymore — it's everything it set in motion. The room has bought in, but early believers have been wrong before.

skeptical — but there's a bull case where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics7 doubt takes
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 1% volume · negative overall
Developing4 new this week
yesterdayOklahoma State football coach Eric Morris believes toughness is 'major factor' to improve — Yahoo Sports
yesterdayOklahoma State head coach Eric Morris runs drills during a morning football practice at OSU in Stillwater, Okla., on Wednesday, — Tulsa World
yesterdayOklahoma State football coach Eric Morris breaks down position battles — The Oklahoman
6 days agoOklahoma State's Iman Oates granted temporary restraining order in eligibility case against NCAA — Official
2 weeks agoWin total: 5.5 → 6.5 (▲1)
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Eric Morris Head coach
“Oklahoma State football coach Eric Morris believes toughness is 'major factor' to improve” — Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-05
Mike Gundy Out
“Daily Bullets (July 18): Can Eric Morris Replicate Mike Gundy’s Wins” — Pistols Firing · 2026-07-18
Drew Mestemaker
“DIAMONDS: Oklahoma State's Eric Morris & Drew Mestemaker DON'T Have The MOST Pressure Entering 2026!” — kens5.com · 2026-07-28
Daily Bullets Recruit
“Daily Bullets (July 26): Eric Morris on Recruiting Challenge, Where BPS Ranks among Big 12 Stadiums” — Pistols Firing · 2026-07-26
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
The room is running hot. The real test is whether the momentum holds once the calendar moves past the announcement.
Source of record: Eric Morris took over as Oklahoma State's head coach, replacing Mike Gundy — replaces 6-year head coach Mike Gundy (38-34).
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards thinThe Dominoes active
📣Believers3 bullish/hire items -- the case it's working.

The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.

“Daily Bullets (July 26): Eric Morris on Recruiting Challenge, Where BPS Ranks among Big 12 Stadiums”
Pistols Firing · 2026-07-26 · read ↗
“Schedule Preview: Before Oregon and Big 12, Eric Morris Needs to Win a Game and Beat Tulsa”
Pokes Report · 2026-07-22 · read ↗
“Oklahoma State's Tough Schedule Could Make Eric Morris' First Season Even More Impressive”
roundtable.io · 2026-07-20 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“With College Offenses Slowing Down, Eric Morris and Oklahoma Sta” — the real counter.

The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

“With College Offenses Slowing Down, Eric Morris and Oklahoma State Won't Be”
Pokes Report · 2026-08-03 · read ↗
“DIAMONDS: Oklahoma State's Eric Morris & Drew Mestemaker DON'T Have The MOST Pressure Entering 2026!”
kens5.com · 2026-07-28 · read ↗
💬The boards4 board mentions — too thin to call a stance. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (69%).

Only 4 of 526 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.

"I read a fellow student's notes walking into the online program here and thought to also provide some heads-up for those are are interested in the program or just want to see what"
r/OKState ~ fan take
"Oklahoma State football is going to be fun again! They made a massive move hiring Eric Morris this offseason and now he begins his first year with the program Full Preview is attac"
r/OKState ~ fan take

Board health this week (253 posts): 21% positive · 47% neutral · 32% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.

🔗The dominoes16 downstream moves — the hire's knock-on effects.

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“This ‘Underestimated’ Oklahoma State Cowgirls Transfer Will be a ‘Big Problem’”
Sports Illustrated · 2026-08-04 · read ↗
“Oklahoma State football: meet the other coach who tried to recruit Drew Mestemaker”
Tulsa World · 2026-08-03 · read ↗

Recent Form · last 10 games

Hibernating

Zero of five. Reset territory.

Streak L10Last 5 · 0-5Last 10 · 0-10
The forecast

Opens Sep 5

vs Tulsa · away

Season line6.5 winsover +115
PoorPoorGives up the big play

✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style

Rival pulse

Texas Tech
Mixed
-3
OSU-Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Uneasy
-6
Bedlam

Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data

Recruiting Footprint · 2026

21
TX · 7OK · 4AR · 2AZ · 2LA · 2IL · 1MO · 1MS · 1+1 more

TX leads the 2026 class with 7 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.

Where they recruit · 2023-2026

84 signees across 16 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.

MEVTNHWAIDMTNDMNWIMINYMAORNVWYSDIAILINOHPANJCTCAUTCONEMOKYWVVAMDDERIAZNMKSARTNNCSCDCOKLAMSALGAAKHITXFL
Source CFB Zeitgeist · player_recruiting_profiles

r/cfb this year

[Postgame Thread] UCF Defeats Oklahoma State 17-14
219 upvotes · Nov 2025
[Postgame Thread] Oklahoma State Defeats UT Martin 27-7
178 upvotes · Aug 2025
[Game Thread] UT Martin @ Oklahoma State (7:30 PM ET)
56 upvotes · Aug 2025

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Class Autopsy
The 2023 class: 0 drafted so far, 63% never transferred. D
See the class →
National spotlight

9 games with TV coverage: 1 national broadcast, 3 ESPN, 2 cable, 3 streaming

Kickoff windows: 3 noon, 4 afternoon, 2 primetime

Fumble luck

The bounces haven't gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 46% recovered, vs. ~49% expected.

6 of 13 forced fumbles recovered; 8 of 15 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.

Takeaway conversion

Cashing in at a normal clip: 15% of disrupted passes intercepted, close to ~19% league-wide.

5 interceptions of 34 disrupted passes (29 deflected, 5 intercepted), 2025 only.

Penalty battle

Roughly even on flags: 63 penalties committed vs. 66 drawn on opponents.

568 penalty yards committed vs. 564 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.

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