cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Jerry Lawson /Louisville

Jerry Lawson

DL · Louisville · Jr · #95

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

16 TACKLES · 0.5 SACKS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred Louisville → Oklahoma State for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Oklahoma State

2025Louisville
2026Oklahoma State

DL · LOUISVILLE · ACC

Jerry Lawson

  • 3
  • #95
  • 6-2 | 295 lb
  • Breckenridge, TX

CFB Zeitgeist Score

44

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 51st percentile.

Heisman Heat

Awaiting

Not on the live Heisman board this week.

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

TOP DEFENSE AWARD

Nagurski

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 1 · 2-deep

R04 · Rotational

Rotational. Earning real snaps in the rotation.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
No recruit profile
CFB
College
Louisville
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionDL
Class3
Jersey95
Measurements6-2 | 295 lb
HometownBreckenridge, TX
Primary teamLouisville

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree Not on file No matched recruiting profile in the loaded archive
Composite rating -- Composite rating unavailable for this player
Signed with -- Commitment history unavailable
Origin -- Hometown and high school unavailable
Class Profile Context
No recruiting profile is on file for this player.

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 2 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Oklahoma State 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 5, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 Louisville -> Oklahoma State 3-star | 0.8800 | Immediate
2025 Abilene Christian -> Louisville 3-star | 0.8800 | Immediate

Heisman Lens

Where the model places this player relative to the rest of the Heisman field.

Current nowcast--Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast--Where the full season sim points
Win probability--Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability--Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability--Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Jerry Lawson

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Jerry Lawson

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the defensive totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 11g
16Tackles
2.5Tackles for loss
0.5Sacks
Per game
1Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
19Tackles
3.0Tackles for loss
0.6Sacks

To hit 80-tackle season (currently 16): needs 32/game over remaining 2.

To hit 100-tackle season (currently 16): needs 42/game over remaining 2.

To hit 6-sack season (currently 0.5): needs 2.8/game over remaining 2.

To hit 10-sack season (currently 0.5): needs 4.8/game over remaining 2.

Why this is a rare defensive case

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Jerry Lawson is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Louisville's defense, with 0.5 sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.

Current place -- -- win | -- finalist
Role load -- Role share still loading
Profile quirk Defensive rarity 0.5 sacks | 2.5 TFL

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

DEF season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Total tackles 16 7 solo | #2295/4942 (54th pct)
TFL 2.5 Backfield disruption | #1236/4972 (75th pct)
Sacks 0.5 Pass-rush finish | #1501/4972 (70th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Defensive contributor against FBS defenders.

Balanced profile

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Tackling & Disruption

TOT
16 54th
SOLO
7 48th
TFL
2.5 75th
SACK
0.5 70th
QBH
1 44th

Coverage & Takeaways

PD
1 43rd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 11 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppTKLSOLOTFLSACKINTPDNote
Wk 1W 51-17vs Eastern Kentucky100.00.00
Wk 2W 28-14vs James Madison320.50.50Season-high 3 tackles
Wk 4W 40-17vs Bowling Green100.00.00
Wk 5W 34-27@ Pittsburgh100.00.00
Wk 8W 24-21@ Miami100.00.00
Wk 9W 38-24vs Boston College110.00.00
Wk 10W 28-16@ Virginia Tech100.00.00
Wk 11L 26-29vs California110.00.00
Wk 12L 19-20vs Clemson100.00.00
Wk 13L 6-38@ SMU211.00.00
BowlW 27-22vs Toledo321.00.01
Total1672.50.51
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025Louisville1672.50.51----
Career1 loaded season1672.50.51----
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Disruption stats

TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.

Coverage splash

Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

INT -- -- pick-six TD
Pass breakups 1 Coverage disruption | #1241/2184 (43rd pct)
QB pressures 1 Quarterback hurries | #1051/1878 (44th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Defense Total tackles 16 #2295/4942 54th pct Volumevs FBS DEF
Defense TFL 2.5 #1236/4972 75th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Sacks 0.5 #1501/4972 70th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Pass breakups 1 #1241/2184 43rd pct Coveragevs FBS DEF
Defense QB hurries 1 #1051/1878 44th pct Disruptionvs FBS DEF
Defense Solo tackles 7 #2403/4584 48th pct Volumevs FBS DEF

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 11 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Home7g1.60.20.10.1
Road4g1.20.20.00.0

Win vs Loss

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Wins8g1.50.20.10.1
Losses3g1.30.30.00.0

First half vs Second half

TKL/gTFL/gSACK/gPD/g
Weeks 1-75g1.80.30.10.2
Weeks 8+6g1.20.20.00.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort

44Mid-pack
6 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: solo tackles (16th).

Tackles for loss#1222 / 2975 · 56th pct
2.5defe
QB hurries#1007 / 2975 · 55th pct
1defe
Sacks#1367 / 2975 · 51st pct
0.5defe
Passes defended#1191 / 2975 · 48th pct
1defe
Tackles#2295 / 2975 · 21st pct
16defe
Solo tackles#2397 / 2975 · 17th pct
7defe

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · DL · 2025

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 6 metrics
Jerry LawsonLouisvilleTyler MartinMassachusetts· 53% simTJ DotteryOle Miss· 52% simMichael MontgomerySouthern Miss· 52% sim
Tackles for loss
56
Lawson
63
Martin
83
Dottery
85
Montgomery
QB hurries
55
Lawson
22
Martin
55
Dottery
22
Montgomery
Sacks
51
Lawson
24
Martin
74
Dottery
89
Montgomery
Passes defended
48
Lawson
67
Martin
67
Dottery
67
Montgomery
Tackles
21
Lawson
98
Martin
98
Dottery
99
Montgomery
Solo tackles
17
Lawson
87
Martin
97
Dottery
82
Montgomery

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Two-Gap Base

Stout at the point of attack; controls his gap and stacks blocks.

IDL

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jordan Guerad’s 2023 season.

Jordan Guerad

93%match

Florida International · 2023

All-Conference USA
#2

Cade Haberman

Northern Illinois · 2021

92%
#3

Anthony Hawkins

Bowling Green · 2022

91%
#4

T.J. Bollers

California · 2024

91%
#5

Grady Kelly

Colorado State · 2023

88%

Matches Jordan on

Sack rate
TFL rate
Weight

Not enough data yet for this comparison.

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Elijah Hughes's junior season at Notre Dame (2025).

Elijah Hughes

87%match

Notre Dame · 2025

#2

Sean FitzSimmons

Pittsburgh · 2024

87%
#3

Nick James

Pittsburgh · 2024

79%
#4

Tygee Hill

Oregon State · 2025

79%
#5

Anthony Hawkins

Bowling Green · 2022

All-MAC
78%

Matches Elijah on

Class year
Weight
TFL rate

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Jeff Brohm

Pass share

50.2%

414 pass / 410 run

Plays / game

63.4

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

7.0%

314 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Jeff Brohm
Louisville

Played his entire career under Jeff Brohm.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownBreckenridge, TX
Height6'2"
Weight295 lb
Class3
PositionDL
Jersey95

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
This player hasn’t appeared on a Heisman ballot tracked by the model.

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Louisville ACC DL 3 No. 95 | 6-2 | 295 lb | Breckenridge, TX