Next game: at Kansas State
Oklahoma State’s best edge on Kansas State is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Oklahoma State offense against Kansas State defense
Kansas State offense against Oklahoma State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dual Threat · +0.34 EPA/play | 17 | 8 | 184 / 281 | 65.5 | 2649 #2 FBS | 9.4 | 25 #1 FBS | 7 | 169.0 | 79 | 82.8 | 9.6 | 2.8 | |
Yards by week → Dual threatDangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back. Impact starter — 281 pass attempts and 33 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Mestemaker runs when the pocket breaks down. Hammond is the one who keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Season receipt Rush yards / carry5.0 90th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Yards / attempt9.6 94th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Drew Mestemaker's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.17 EPA/play | 24 | 8 | 167 | 906 #11 FBS | 5.4 | 4 | 75 | 10.2 | 11.4 | |
Yards by week → Workhorse· Boom-or-bustBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Impact starter — 167 carries and 31 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than nearly every FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Hawkins just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Williams is the one who beats you as a runner and a receiver. Season receipt Weight219 lb 84th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception11.4 91th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Caleb Hawkins's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.06 EPA/play | 25 | 6 | 30 | 200 | 6.7 | 1 | 25 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| -0.59 EPA/play | 6 | 4 | 20 | 113 | 5.7 | 2 | 20 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +1.00 EPA/play | — | 8 | 41 | 731 #17 FBS | 17.8 | 9 #5 FBS | 52 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. Starter — 41 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. The rare part: he takes the top off a defense — and he finds the end zone, too This week's matchup — WR Bowick beats you over the top. Johnson is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception18.3 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate22.0% 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Justin Bowick's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.69 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 43 | 713 #19 FBS | 16.6 | 8 #9 FBS | 54 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. Impact starter — 43 catches and 4 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Young beats you over the top. Johnson is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception16.9 83th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume43 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Wyatt Young's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.48 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 25 | 365 | 14.6 | 2 | 48 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 25 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Coleman moves the chains on third down. Johnson is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception14.8 64th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate8.0% bottom 45th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Miles Coleman's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.17 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 19 | 204 | 10.7 | 2 | 31 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Lewis moves the chains on third down. Johnson is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception7.7 bottom 6th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.2 bottom 15th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Terrence Lewis's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.38 EPA/play | 2 | 5 | 11 | 179 | 16.3 | 0 | 52 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.03 EPA/play | 44 | 4 | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 2 | 16 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 10 | 7 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 0.5 | 3 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 19 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View James Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 11 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Keviyan Huddleston's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 5 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Saadiq Clements's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 95 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 3.5 | 2 | 3 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Jaleel Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Power Rusher | — | 7 | 15 | 7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0 |
Power rusherBull-rushes through contact, winning with size and length at the point of attack. 8 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.3% 65th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Malik Charles's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 92 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight312 lb 84th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jerry Lawson's full player page | |||||||
| 94 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 98 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 87 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 88 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 31 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 32 | 8 | 76 | 31 | 45 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 76 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume76 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate5.3% 69th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ethan Wesloski's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 8 | 63 | 32 | 31 | 7 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 63 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume63 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate11.1% 64th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tate Romney's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 8 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 42 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Isaiah Chisom's full player page | |||||||||
| 20 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 7 | 8 | 55 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 55 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume55 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Quinton Hammonds's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 9 | 8 | 33 | 5 | 5 #1 FBS | 3 | 0 |
Perimeter tackler· Takeaway threatTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 33 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume33 92th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View LaDainian Fields's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 7 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 53th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Evan Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 18 | 5 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Mose Phillips III's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 4 | 7 | 23 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Maurion Horn's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Christian Bodnar's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 8 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kollin Lewis's full player page | |||||||
| 25 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 14 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automatic | 16 | 8 | 18/19 | 94.7 | 35/35 | 89 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 | 8 | 14 | 597 | 42.6 | 47 | 4 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.48 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 10 | 147 | 14.7 | 0 | 55 |
| 36 | 5 | 5 | 73 | 14.6 | 0 | 21 |
Biggest plays from Oklahoma State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Oklahoma State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 11:08 · Iowa State up 3Aiden Flora runs 75 yards for a touchdownOklahoma State at Iowa State, week 9Q4, 11:08 · Iowa State 45, Oklahoma State 357575-yard touchdown run7575-yard touchdown run75-yard touchdown runA.Flora rush right for 75 yards gain to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 0:53 · Oklahoma State down 6, takes the leadDrew Mestemaker finds Wyatt Young for a 7-yard touchdownOklahoma State at Iowa State, week 9Q4, 0:53 · Oklahoma State 49, Iowa State 480:53Go-ahead touchdown for Oklahoma State with 0:53 left0:53Go-ahead touchdown for Oklahoma State with 0:53 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Oklahoma State with 0:53 leftD.Mestemaker pass complete short middle to W.Young caught at ISU11, for 7 yards to the ISU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q4, 11:19 · Oklahoma State down 10Drew Mestemaker finds Justin Bowick for a 41-yard touchdownOklahoma State at Iowa State, week 9Q4, 11:19 · Oklahoma State 35, Iowa State 38▲31%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 19% to 50%▲31%Oklahoma State’s chance to win, 19% to 50%D.Mestemaker pass complete deep left to J.Bowick caught at ISU03, for 41 yards to the ISU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 12:17 · Iowa State down 7, ties itJaylen Raynor finds Easton Miller for a 2-yard touchdownOklahoma State at Iowa State, week 9Q2, 12:17 · Iowa State 14, Oklahoma State 14Iowa State tied the game in the second quarterIowa State tied the game in the second quarterJ.Raynor pass complete short right to E.Miller caught at OSU02, for 2 yards to the OSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 0:03 · Colorado breaks the tieIsaac Wilson finds DeAndre Moore Jr. for a 15-yard touchdownColorado at Oklahoma State, week 8Q1, 0:03 · Colorado 14, Oklahoma State 7Colorado took the lead in the first quarterColorado took the lead in the first quarterI.Wilson pass complete short middle to D.Moore Jr. caught at OSU00, for 15 yards to the OSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 5:26 · Oregon down 10Jordon Davison runs 1 yard for a touchdownOregon at Oklahoma State, week 2Q2, 5:26 · Oregon 14, Oklahoma State 17▲22%Oregon’s chance to win, 60% to 82%▲22%Oregon’s chance to win, 60% to 82%J.Davison rush middle for 1 yard gain to the OSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Oklahoma State lost at Iowa State after being 97% to win; the closest win was at West Virginia, down to 11%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Oklahoma State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Oklahoma State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Oklahoma StateEthan Wesloski leads Oklahoma State with 76 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+16 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Oklahoma State fields an elite methodical, ball-control offense behind a leaky defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Oklahoma State reads strongest in success rate (top 4%) and passing EPA (top 7%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Oklahoma State sits at the 25th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Oklahoma State is worth +4.6 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 58th percentile of 133 programs
66% at home, 39% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (33-17 home, 18-28 away). Interval ±4.2.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Oklahoma State has beaten the number by +3.1 more at home than away over 102 games. That is inside the ±6.5 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Boone Pickens Stadium seats 55,509 and has averaged 93% full (51,412, 31 games reported). Visitors cover a median 405 miles to get here since 2018 — 65th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 20% of the 2026 roster (23 of 113 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Garbage timeKalib Hicks sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline: the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
- Deep threatGavin Freeman is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Garbage timeRodney Fields Jr. does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Caleb Hawkins and Ayo Adeyi split the carries (165/195 vs 30/195) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Justin Bowick (WR) and Carson Kolb (TE) split the targets (53/65 vs 12/65) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Oklahoma State actually scores
76th percentile quality, 14th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Oklahoma State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 76th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 70th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Oklahoma State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
96th percentile success on standard downs, 86th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Oklahoma State by half
1st-half offense ranks 76th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 82nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Oklahoma State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.28; 94th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.11. The widest gap came in week 10: 0.28 raw vs. 0.11 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Oklahoma State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.2% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 251-play sample) — mid-pack, 68 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Oklahoma State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.9% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 164-play sample) — mid-pack, 102 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on their own fumbles: 14% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.
1 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves; 3 of 7 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in more than most: 24% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
8 interceptions of 34 disrupted passes (26 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags have favored them: 50 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 42 committed, 51 yards to the good.
388 penalty yards committed vs. 439 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Oklahoma State
Most similar programs · Oklahoma StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Oklahoma State’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Usual during the game around Nov 13: 55°, between 42° and 72° in about 7 in 10 games (28 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 64°, and 8 in 10 ran between 43° and 84° (51 of 53 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.