Colorado at Oklahoma State
Colorado (2‑4) travels to Oklahoma State (4‑2), with Oklahoma State favored by 13.5. Colorado’s rushing offense is at the 7th percentile; Oklahoma State’s run defense is at the 74th.
How they got here
Last three games
Colorado · 2-4
Rated 163rd in our preseason ratings, 94th now, up 69 spots.
Three straight losses.
Last three games
Oklahoma State · 4-2
Rated 262nd in our preseason ratings, 99th now, up 163 spots.
2-1 in its last three, including a 17-point win over West Virginia as a 1.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Colorado’s rushing EPA against Oklahoma State, 67 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Colorado’s rushing EPA against Oklahoma State’s defense
Colorado offense, 7th percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 74th
Colorado’s EPA/play against Oklahoma State’s defense
Colorado offense, 11th percentile · Oklahoma State defense, 53rd
Oklahoma State’s explosive plays against Colorado’s defense
Oklahoma State offense, 13th percentile · Colorado defense, 58th
What’s at stake
Colorado
- Colorado needs 4 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 38% to get there with a win here, 12% with a loss.
- Colorado is the program with a 1990 national title and the most-watched college football story of the 2020s thanks to Coach Prime.
Oklahoma State
- Oklahoma State needs 2 more wins in the final 5 to reach bowl eligibility — 90% to get there with a win here, 61% with a loss.
- Oklahoma State is the program that lived in Mike Gundy's mullet for 20 years and built a Big 12 identity around being not-Oklahoma.
The series
Colorado leads the series 27-20-1
48 meetings since 1920 · Colorado won the last meeting
- 2024Colorado 52-0
- 2016 · neutral siteOklahoma State 38-8
- 2009Oklahoma State 31-28
- 2008Oklahoma State 30-17
- 2005Colorado 34-0
Each line is Oklahoma State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Colorado
The chip · vs the national mediaEvery Buffs fan knows the deal: the same cameras that made Boulder the center of the sport are the ones counting down to the day they can call it a circus that fell apart. The fanbase loves the attention and resents the verdict riding in behind it.
What this game touches
The 2025 fall to earth. The year after a 9-4 season carried by Travis Hunter (No. 2 overall) and Shedeur Sanders, Colorado went 3-9 (1-8 Big 12) — a 53-7 wipeout at Utah, blowouts to both Arizona schools — and the questions about whether the show could ever become a program got loud.
Oklahoma State
The chip · vs big brotherThe fanbase spent a generation insisting Stillwater was its own program, not a satellite of the school 80 miles south. A 1-11 season handed Oklahoma every easy joke — and the room is daring Morris to make the rivalry feel like a rivalry again.
What this game touches
The 1-11 collapse and the end of Gundy. Mike Gundy, the program's identity for 21 seasons, was fired on September 23 after a 1-2 start curdled into the worst year in modern memory: 1-11 overall, 0-9 in the Big 12, ten straight losses. The man who built Oklahoma State into a sustained winner left as the season that ended his tenure became the program's lowest point in a generation.
Best players
Colorado
- Randon Fontenette (DB) · 51 tackles
- Gideon Lampron (LB) · 48 tackles
- Naeten Mitchell (DB) · 44 tackles
Oklahoma State
- Ethan Wesloski (LB) · 62 tackles
- Tate Romney (LB) · 51 tackles
- Drew Mestemaker (QB) · 1,940 passing yards — Heisman odds: 29th (+5000)
The betting line, and the fans
Oklahoma State fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (87th among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.
- Model · 54%
- Line · 86%
- Oklahoma State fans · 87th
- Colorado fans · 40th
Oklahoma State favored by 13.5 · Total 56.5
Oklahoma State by 13.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Oklahoma State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 387 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Warm. No coat needed.
Colorado at Oklahoma State · Saturday, Oct. 24 · 7 pm ET · FS1 · Boone Pickens Stadium.
- 73°feels like
- 0%average rain chance
- 12 mphwind gusts
- 100weather score, Ideal
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
Tied for the highest forecast of this Saturday's 33 TV games with a forecast
- Baylor at Kansas: 100, Ideal
- Boston College at Georgia Tech: 100, Ideal
- Colorado at Oklahoma State: 100, Ideal
- Eastern Michigan at Ohio: 100, Ideal
- Indiana at Michigan: 100, Ideal
- Iowa State at Arizona: 100, Ideal
- Kansas State at Arizona State: 100, Ideal
- LSU at Auburn: 100, Ideal
- Michigan State at UCLA: 100, Ideal
- North Texas at Navy: 100, Ideal
- Oklahoma at Mississippi State: 100, Ideal
- Oregon at Illinois: 100, Ideal
- Tennessee at South Carolina: 100, Ideal
- Texas A&M at Alabama: 100, Ideal
- Texas Tech at Cincinnati: 100, Ideal
- USC at Wisconsin: 100, Ideal
- UTSA at Tulane: 100, Ideal
- West Virginia at TCU: 100, Ideal
- Western Michigan at Toledo: 100, Ideal
- California at SMU: 99, Comfortable
- Vanderbilt at Kentucky: 98, Comfortable
- Boise State at Washington State: 97, Comfortable
- Iowa at Minnesota: 97, Comfortable
- Utah State at Texas State: 96, Comfortable
- Ole Miss at Texas: 95, Comfortable
- Syracuse at North Carolina: 95, Comfortable
- Virginia Tech at Clemson: 95, Comfortable
- Houston at Utah: 93, Comfortable
- North Dakota State at New Mexico: 93, Comfortable
- San Diego State at Colorado State: 91, Comfortable
- BYU at UCF: 88, Mixed
- Pittsburgh at Miami: 85, Mixed
- Rice at Florida Atlantic: 85, Mixed
Tap a dot to read the game.
Forecast, read Fri Oct 23, 3:20 am to 9:20 am ET (each game has its own read time). It can change until kickoff.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Boone Pickens Stadium: noon Saturdays score 84, 3:30 pm 82, 7:30 pm 92.
- noon: 84, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 82, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Oklahoma State is worth +4.3 points (±4.2) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 56th percentile.
65% at home, 40% on the road against FBS opponents (32-17 home, 18-27 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.5 at home vs. away over 100 games — inside the ±6.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 520 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Oklahoma State
- Wk 2Wvs Oregon39-31
- Wk 3Wvs Murray State59-0
- Wk 4Wat West Virginia41-24
- Wk 6Wvs UCF42-28
- Wk 7Lat Houston32-35
Colorado
- Wk 2Wvs Weber State52-21
- Wk 3Lat Northwestern7-41
- Wk 4Lat Baylor13-23
- Wk 5Lvs Texas Tech7-29
- Wk 7Lvs Utah24-27
Power rating by week
Colorado is rated 0.4 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Colorado.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −14.5 → −13.5 · Total: 55.5 → 56.5
The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Oklahoma State5th2-1
- Colorado15th0-3
Last meeting in our History pages
- Oklahoma State 38, Colorado 8Valero Alamo Bowl · Dec 29, 2016