Murray State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Murray State · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Murray State2025 historic collapse
Murray State wins only one game (1-11 overall, 1-7 MVFC) in the worst season in program history
Heartbreak
Murray State1-11Hope-Doping·Offseason
Murray State is the Racers in their worst season ever — 1-11 in 2025, testing whether the program can climb out of the historic hole under new head coach Jody Wright.
Standard GapA program with a football tradition that has been completely dismantled…
The fanbase knows Murray State has hit rock bottom. The only direction now is up — every win in 2026 will feel like a triumph because the bar is so low.
low signal
Approaching
21 days
until kickoff · vs Eastern Illinois · Thu Aug 27 · 23:00 UTC
The experience
Murray State is the Racers in their worst season ever — 1-11 in 2025, testing whether the program can climb out of the historic hole under new head coach Jody Wright.
The Racers bide their time.
Murray State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 0-12
Base 1-11
Ceiling 4-8
floor0-12Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base1-11Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling4-8Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cold
One of five. The film room is busy this week.
Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 1-9
The forecast
Opens Aug 27
vs Eastern Illinois · at home
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Takeaway conversion
Converting 15% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
2 interceptions of 13 disrupted passes (11 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2025 only.
The Pulse on Murray State
—
The Racers bide their time.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Racers."
— Murray State fanbase · recurring line
3 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Murray State · medium confidence
Stable (37)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 1-11 (8% win rate)35
Volume — 3 effective signal-N40
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#121 / 138 · 13th pct19.0
Pts allowed/game#136 / 138 · 2nd pct38.6
All 20 stats
Other
First down pass rate#33 / 215 · 85th pct#5 / 70 · 94th pct#7 / 11 · 45th pct0.50.0/gm
H1 epa per play#149 / 162 · 9th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct-0.0-0.0
H1 epa per play opponent#151 / 167 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct0.40.0/gm
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team50.4/gm#145 / 167 · 14th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Opp121.0/gm#19 / 166 · 89th pct#1 / 70 · 100th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct
Red zone score %
Team60.0%60.0%#149 / 167 · 11th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Opp91.7%91.7%#151 / 166 · 10th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Points / drive
Team0.90.1/gm#145 / 167 · 14th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Opp3.20.3/gm#150 / 166 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Yards / drive
Team30.22.5/gm#147 / 167 · 13th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Opp39.73.3/gm#61 / 166 · 64th pct#31 / 70 · 57th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.10.5/gm#136 / 167 · 19th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct
Opp6.30.5/gm#43 / 166 · 75th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team11.1%11.1%#49 / 167 · 71st pct#25 / 70 · 66th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct
Opp16.0%16.0%#42 / 166 · 75th pct#24 / 70 · 67th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Standard-downs success
Team37.1%37.1%#151 / 154 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Opp55.7%55.7%#154 / 172 · 11th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct
Passing-downs success#139 / 153 · 10th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct23.5%23.5%
Line yards / carry allowed#152 / 155 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct3.83.8
Stuff rate forced#147 / 155 · 6th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct11.7%11.7%
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Murray State · 2025 schedule & results1-11Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 52% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 30 | #254 | #135 | +31 | @East Tennessee State | L 17–45 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #238 | #180 | +21.5 | SE Louisiana | L 24–45 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #251 | #127 | +31.5 | @Georgia State | L 21–37 134 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #255 | #61 | +35.5 | @Jacksonville State | L 10–45 145 | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #262 | #134 | — | @South Dakota | L 24–49 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #264 | #152 | +23.5 | Illinois State | L 32–46 | 0-6 | 0-2 |
| 8 | Oct 18 | #268 | #82 | +37.5 | South Dakota State | L 14–35 | 0-7 | 0-3 |
| 9 | Oct 25 | #264 | #164 | +24.5 | @Youngstown State | L 17–51 | 0-8 | 0-4 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #268 | #143 | +24.5 | Southern Illinois | L 7–27 | 0-9 | 0-5 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #270 | #226 | +12.5 | @Northern Iowa | L 14–31 | 0-10 | 0-6 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #275 | #83 | +34 | North Dakota | L 17–35 | 0-11 | 0-7 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #273 | #229 | +13 | @Indiana State | W 31–17 | 1-11 | 1-7 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @Indiana State | W 31–17 | — | — | — | +0.267 | 53.0% | 99.3% | Best success rate |
| Nov 15 | North Dakota | L 17–35 | — | — | — | -0.078 | 30.4% | 127.1% | |
| Nov 8 | @Northern Iowa | L 14–31 | — | — | — | +0.141 | 45.9% | 129.2% | |
| Nov 1 | Southern Illinois | L 7–27 | — | — | — | -0.053 | 47.6% | 91.7% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 25 | @Youngstown State | L 17–51 | — | — | — | +0.037 | 39.3% | 142.0% | Most explosive |
| Oct 11 | Illinois State | L 32–46 | — | — | — | +0.331 | 47.2% | 129.0% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | @South Dakota | L 24–49 | — | — | — | +0.155 | 46.0% | 108.1% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 20 | @Jacksonville State | L 10–45 | 235 | 2 | 29:28 | -0.161 | 30.2% | 102.9% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 13 | @Georgia State | L 21–37 | 282 | 1 | 29:05 | +0.081 | 38.6% | 99.0% | |
| Sep 6 | SE Louisiana | L 24–45 | — | — | — | +0.075 | 46.7% | 106.0% | |
| Aug 30 | @East Tennessee State | L 17–45 | — | — | — | +0.036 | 31.7% | 133.6% | Blowout loss |
| Season average (11 games) | 258 | 1.5 | +0.076 | 41.5% | 115.3% | ||||
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Murray State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
1st percentile success on standard downs, 6th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Schedule mirage
How much of Murray State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.08; 35th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 8: 0.09 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Murray State · 2018-present
Elite
40% home win rate vs 14% on the road. margin runs +18.1 better at home. Roy Stewart Stadium seats 16,800, averaging 50% full (8,427 attendance, 11 games reported).
Home15-22Away6-36
Venue texture
68°F average kickoff temp; 4% of games had measurable precipitation; 7 mph average wind.
Based on 26 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Murray State
Power Program
All-Time Record
77-174-3
since 1945 · 37 seasons · .303 win rate
HOME
49-60-1
AWAY
22-108-1
NEUTRAL
6-6-1
1940s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
MVFC Standing · 2025
9th in the MVFC
Murray State is 9th of 9 in the MVFC at 1-7. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | South Dakota | 6-1 |
| 2 | Illinois State | 5-2 |
| 3 | North Dakota | 5-2 |
| 4 | Youngstown State | 5-2 |
| 5 | South Dakota State | 4-3 |
| 6 | Southern Illinois | 4-3 |
| 7 | Indiana State | 1-6 |
| 8 | Northern Iowa | 1-6 |
| 9 | Murray State | 1-7 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Moment of the Year · Murray State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Murray State · 2025Won 31-17 at Indiana State
Week 13 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. AI-generated content is labeled and may contain factual errors. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site