Murray State at South Dakota State
South Dakota State (5‑2) hosts Murray State (1‑6). The market has South Dakota State favored by 40.5. The model gives South Dakota State a 100% shot.
How they got here
Last three games
Murray State · 1-6
Rated 254th in our preseason ratings, 261st now.
Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.
L 20-48 vs South Dakota No. 92 of 668 teams
lost by 28 as a 28.5-point underdog
L 6-46 vs Southern Illinois No. 156 of 668 teams
lost by 40 as a 17.5-point underdog
W 27-18 vs Valparaiso No. 254 of 668 teams
won by 9 as a 14-point favorite
L 14-28 vs Eastern Illinois No. 200 of 668 teams
lost by 14 as a 4.5-point favorite
Last three games
South Dakota State · 5-2
Rated 105th in our preseason ratings, 86th now, up 19 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
What’s at stake
Murray State
- Murray State is 4 games back in MVFC with 4 left to make it up.
- Murray State is still shaking off a 28-point loss.
South Dakota State
- South Dakota State is 2 games back in MVFC with 4 left to make it up.
- South Dakota State won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2022 and 2023, then extended the Jackrabbits' run as an FCS power into 2025 as the Dakota Marker rivalry faced uncertain future when rival North Dakota State joined the FBS—asking whether SDSU's title window stays open in a fractured landscape.
The series
South Dakota State leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2024 · South Dakota State has won the last 2
- 2025South Dakota State 35-14
- 2024South Dakota State 52-6
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Murray State
The chipThe fanbase knows Murray State has hit rock bottom. The only direction now is up — every win in 2026 will feel like a triumph because the bar is so low.
What this game touches
The historic collapse. Murray State won just one game in 2025 — a program that once competed in the MVFC is now the team to beat if you're trying to go undefeated. The fanbase is in shock and the program is in crisis mode.
South Dakota State
The chipThe chip is that SDSU won its first national championship and proved it could repeat it, but the moment of proof is colliding with realignment forces that scatter the competitive landscape.
What this game touches
The end of the Dakota Marker rivalry — almost certainly when NDSU joins the Mountain West. South Dakota State and North Dakota State played for the Dakota Marker from 2004 through 2025. NDSU won the last game 38-7 on October 25, 2025. When NDSU leaves for the FBS in 2026, the annual conference date ends, and with it the rivalry as a protected fixture. The wound is not that SDSU failed to retain NDSU as a rival — it is that the program's primary identity anchor is disappearing by forces outside its control.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on South Dakota State’s chances here.
South Dakota State favored by 40.5 · Total 57.5
South Dakota State by 40.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
South Dakota State’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 412 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
Home field
South Dakota State is worth +6.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 83rd percentile.
75% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (6-2 home, 7-8 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.4 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±7.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 693 miles to get here.
Week by week
South Dakota State
- Wk 2Wvs New Haven57-14
- Wk 3Wvs Youngstown State27-20
- Wk 4Wvs Eastern Illinois42-7
- Wk 5Wat Illinois State31-14
- Wk 7Lat North Dakota10-21
Murray State
- Wk 2Wvs Valparaiso27-18
- Wk 3Lat Oklahoma State0-59
- Wk 4Lvs Southern Illinois6-46
- Wk 5Lat North Dakota28-55
- Wk 7Lvs South Dakota20-48
Power rating by week
South Dakota State is rated 15.5 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Dakota State4th2-1
- Murray State8th0-3