Northwestern beats South Dakota State 34-18

Team pages: South Dakota State · Northwestern

South Dakota State1-118
Northwestern1-034Final
Sat, Sep 5 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium, Evanston, Ill. · Crowd 9,574BTN

Northwestern beat South Dakota State 34-18.

We had Northwestern favored. It won.

Next: South Dakota State beat New Haven 57-14, Sat Sep 12

Next: Northwestern beat Colorado 41-7, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Northwestern a 95% chance, and the closing betting line (Northwestern was a 14-point favorite) put it at 87%.

Favored the whole way: Northwestern never fell below 81%.

South Dakota State never had better than a 19% chance.

80-yard TD runNorthwestern · Q4 1:15
FinalNorthwestern 34-18 South Dakota StateNorthwestern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfNorthwesternWon34-18Scores80-yard TD run
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q489% at halfNorthwesternWon34-18Scores80-yard TD run
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfNorthwesternLost18-34Scores80-yard TD run
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q411% at halfNorthwesternLost18-34Scores80-yard TD run

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Northwestern’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Northwestern -14), at 87% for Northwestern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Northwestern’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 13:06Mason sacked for a 1-yd lossQ1, 13:06 · Northwestern 0, South Dakota State 00-0score after the play0-0score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  2. Q1, 11:42Chiles 11-yd TD pass to HonigNorthwestern goes ahead 7-0Q1, 11:42 · Northwestern 7, South Dakota State 0▲4%Northwestern’s chance to win, 89% to 93%▲4%Northwestern’s chance to win, 89% to 93%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  3. Q1, 6:03Mason intercepted by Walters at the SDSU50Q1, 6:03 · Northwestern 7, South Dakota State 0▲2%Northwestern’s chance to win, 93% to 95%▲2%Northwestern’s chance to win, 93% to 95%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  4. Q3, 7:13Komolafe 7-yd TD runNorthwestern leads 17-9Q3, 7:13 · Northwestern 17, South Dakota State 917-9score after the play17-9score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  5. Q4, 8:16Johnson 2-yd TD runcuts it to 20-18Q4, 8:16 · Northwestern 20, South Dakota State 18▼5%Northwestern’s chance to win, 91% to 86%▼5%Northwestern’s chance to win, 91% to 86%Watch from this playCFB ON FOX
  6. Q4, 1:15Himon 80-yd TD runNorthwestern leads 34-18Q4, 1:15 · Northwestern 34, South Dakota State 1834-18score after the play34-18score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX
  7. Q4, 0:05Mason sacked for a 6-yd lossQ4, 0:05 · Northwestern 34, South Dakota State 1834-18score after the play34-18score after the playWatch from this playCFB ON FOX

Every drive

Northwestern scored on 6 of its 11 drives; South Dakota State on 5 of its 12.

Northwestern’s drives are teal, South Dakota State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1South Dakota State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntNorthwestern: Touchdown, from 82 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntNorthwestern: Punt, from 70 yards out to 57PuntSouth Dakota State: Interception, from 72 yards out to 59InterceptionNorthwestern: Punt, from 46 yards out to 37PuntSouth Dakota State: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 3Field goalQ2Northwestern: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 19Field goalSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 70 yards out to 68PuntNorthwestern: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntSouth Dakota State: Field goal, from 51 yards out to 15Field goalNorthwestern: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntSouth Dakota State: End of half, from 64 yards out to 70End of halfQ3Northwestern: Punt, from 84 yards out to 84PuntSouth Dakota State: Field goal, from 26 yards out to 9Field goalNorthwestern: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: Field goal, from 77 yards out to 8Field goalNorthwestern: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 20Field goalQ4South Dakota State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthwestern: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 20Missed FGNorthwestern: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: End of game, from 75 yards out to 21End of game
“Okay chip that was a slick playcall”
A Northwestern fan

When fans got loud

Busy

The jump was busy; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthNorthwestern fansSouth Dakota State fansusual

Box score

Northwestern 34, South Dakota State 18

Northwestern covered −14 by 2. The total, 52, went over 49.5.

South Dakota StateNorthwesternTotal yardsSouth Dakota State 432Northwestern 497432497Passing yardsSouth Dakota State 285Northwestern 273285273Rushing yardsSouth Dakota State 147Northwestern 224147224First downsSouth Dakota State 27Northwestern 192719TurnoversSouth Dakota State 1Northwestern 010Time of possessionSouth Dakota State 34:08Northwestern 25:5234:0825:52
Team totalsSouth Dakota StateNorthwestern
Total yards432497
Passing23 of 48, 285 yds14 of 24, 273 yds
Rushing40 for 147 yds31 for 224 yds
First downs2719
Third down8 of 205 of 12
Fourth down3 of 30 of 0
Turnovers10
Penalties6 for 45 yds9 for 61 yds
Time of possession34:0825:52

South Dakota State leaders

  • Passing Chase Mason 23 of 48, 285 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Josiah Johnson 19 for 79 yds, 1 TD; Chase Mason 13 for 39 yds
  • Receiving Grahm Goering 9 for 117 yds; Jack Smith 5 for 79 yds

Northwestern leaders

  • Passing Aidan Chiles 14 of 24, 273 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Joseph Himon II 4 for 87 yds, 1 TD; Gavin Sawchuk 8 for 69 yds
  • Receiving Griffin Wilde 3 for 104 yds; Drew Wagner 3 for 43 yds

No rain through the game

72° at kickoff · no rain recorded

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Northwestern favoredSouth Dakota State favored100%Win chanceNorthwesternRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Northwestern favoredSouth Dakota State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:55 left7:02 p.m.
South Dakota State 0, Northwestern 0 · Northwestern 87% to win
no rain · 72°
Johnson 6-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Palwaukee airport, 13 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

South Dakota State · 9-5

Rated 105th in our preseason ratings, 105th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over North Dakota as a 9.5-point underdog.

L 29-50 @ Montana #65 of 667

W 41-3 vs New Hampshire #145 of 667

won by 38 as an 11-point favorite

W 34-31 @ North Dakota #93 of 667

won by 3 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 21-35 vs Illinois State #119 of 667

lost by 14 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 17-24 @ South Dakota #140 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point favorite

L 12-24 vs Indiana State #213 of 667

lost by 12 as a 31-point favorite

L 7-38 vs North Dakota State #53 of 667

lost by 31 as a 9-point underdog

South Dakota State lost 7-38 vs North Dakota State. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 38%.

W 35-14 @ Murray State #261 of 667

won by 21 as a 37.5-point favorite

W 31-3 vs Northern Iowa #230 of 667

won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite

W 35-30 @ Youngstown State #167 of 667

won by 5 as a 15-point favorite

W 51-7 vs Mercyhurst #245 of 667

won by 44 as a 32.5-point favorite

W 37-21 vs Drake #189 of 667

won by 16 as a 34-point favorite

W 30-24 @ Montana State #84 of 667

won by 6 as a 3-point favorite

W 20-3 vs Sacramento State #115 of 667

won by 17 as an 11.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 20-3 vs Sacramento State. Chance to win started at 84%, low 76%, high better than 99%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Northwestern · 7-6

Rated 14th in our preseason ratings.

W 34-7 vs Central Michigan #112 of 667

won by 27 as a 13.5-point favorite

Northwestern won 34-7 vs Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 86%, low 78%, high better than 99%.

L 13-20 @ IllinoisTop 25 #50 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

Northwestern lost 13-20 at Illinois. Chance to win started at 21%, low under 1%, high 50%.

W 38-35 vs Minnesota #87 of 667

won by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

Northwestern won 38-35 vs Minnesota. Chance to win started at 69%, low 9%, high better than 99%.

L 22-24 vs MichiganTop 25 #21 of 667

lost by 2 as a 10.5-point underdog

L 17-38 @ USCTop 25 #13 of 667

lost by 21 as a 14.5-point underdog

Northwestern lost 17-38 at USC. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 23%.

L 21-28 @ NebraskaTop 25 #44 of 667

lost by 7 as a 7.5-point underdog

Northwestern lost 21-28 at Nebraska. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 47%.

W 19-0 vs Purdue #80 of 667

won by 19 as a 3.5-point favorite

Northwestern won 19-0 vs Purdue. Chance to win started at 70%, low 69%, high better than 99%.

W 22-21 @ Penn StateTop 25 #21 of 667

won by 1 as a 20.5-point underdog

Northwestern won 22-21 at Penn State. Chance to win started at 6%, low 4%, high 61%.

W 42-7 vs UL Monroe #132 of 667

won by 35 as a 13.5-point favorite

Northwestern won 42-7 vs UL Monroe. Chance to win started at 87%, low 64%, high better than 99%.

W 17-14 vs UCLA #66 of 667

won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite

Northwestern won 17-14 vs UCLA. Chance to win started at 75%, low 69%, high better than 99%.

L 14-34 vs OregonTop 25 #2 of 667

lost by 20 as a 24.5-point underdog

Northwestern lost 14-34 vs Oregon. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 10%.

W 42-7 vs Western Illinois #232 of 667

won by 35 as a 30.5-point favorite

Northwestern won 42-7 vs Western Illinois. Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

L 3-23 @ TulaneTop 25 #50 of 667

lost by 20 as a 6.5-point underdog

Northwestern lost 3-23 at Tulane. Chance to win started at 22%, low under 1%, high 24%.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Northwestern’s chances here.

50-50Model 95% · Line 87%South Dakota StateNorthwestern

Northwestern favored by 14 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Northwestern by 14, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward Northwestern.

opened −12.5now −14

The total rose 3 points.

opened 46.5now 49.5

Spread: −12.5 → −14 · Total: 46.5 → 49.5

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 74° at kickoff.

South Dakota State at Northwestern · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium, Evanston

  • 74°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 100weather score, Ideal
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 7 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Kickoff times that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium that day, a 2:30 pm kickoff would have scored 88, against 100 at 7 pm.

  • 11 am: 95, Comfortable
  • noon: 91, Comfortable
  • 2:30 pm: 88, Mixed
  • 3:15 pm: 91, Comfortable
  • 4 pm: 95, Comfortable
  • 6 pm: 99, Comfortable
  • 7 pm: 100, Ideal (this game)

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

Northwestern is worth +5.3 points (±4.3) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 71st percentile.

52% at home, 35% on the road against FBS opponents (21-19 home, 14-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 85 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 484 miles to get here.

Where next