South Dakota State — CFB Zeitgeist

South Dakota State9-5

Hope-Doping·Offseason

South Dakota State won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2022 and 2023, but faces a closing window as its primary rival North Dakota State exits to the FBS, shelving the Dakota Marker rivalry and forcing the program to reimagine its identity.

Title DroughtSince 2024 · 1 yrs

The chip is that SDSU won its first national championship and proved it could repeat it, but the moment of proof is colliding with realignment forces that scatter the competitive landscape.

offseason · quiet

Read the full program story ↓

Roster Reload - South Dakota State

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06

Returning ProductionNAContinuity signal unavailable

Portal Additions2Primary repair: IOL

Portal Losses3Primary pressure: ATH

Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded

Recruiting ReloadNARecruiting class signal unavailable

Sin 0out 1 - Jalen Lee3.60Downgrade

ATHin 0out 1 - Luke Womack3.49Downgrade

Kin 1 - Tristan Alvano3.49out 0Even

IOLin 1 - Cooper Starks3.40out 0Upgrade

QBin 0out 1 - Luke Marble2.00Downgrade

Approaching

23 days

until kickoff · vs Stetson · Sat Aug 29 · 23:00 UTC

The experience

South Dakota State won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2022 and 2023, then extended the Jackrabbits' run as an FCS power into 2025 as the Dakota Marker rivalry faced uncertain future when rival North Dakota State joined the FBS—asking whether SDSU's title window stays open in a fractured landscape.

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

South Dakota State faces roster challenges but remains competitive in 2026

The team projects to finish between 4-8 and 11-2, with a balanced portal churn impacting key positions like ATH and IOL. Transfer activity and returning production will be critical for achieving the upper end of this range.

Roster reloadSouth Dakota State has a transfer_in_total of 2 and a transfer_out_total of 3, indicating a balanced portal churn that may affect depth in key positions.
ScheduleSouth Dakota State's season_path.base projects an 8-5 record with a bowl game, while the ceiling scenario forecasts an 11-2 record.

Data as of 2026-08-01 · Validated against program evidence

The Jackrabbit waits in Dykhouse, watching the prairie unfold.

Transfer portal snapshot

-6.2 net portal points

(raw ledger: -2.2 — unweighted, no position adjustment)

-3.6

low confidence

ATH

-3.5

low confidence

+3.5

low confidence

IOL

+3.4

low confidence

-2.0

low confidence

Floor 4-8

Base 8-5

Ceiling 11-2

floor4-8No postseason.

base8-5Bowl game.

ceiling11-2Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Recent Form · last 10 games

Cooling

Two of five. Schedule has caught up.

Streak L1Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 5-5

The forecast

Opens Aug 29

vs Stetson · at home

Community pulse

No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.

Player stats — 2025 season

No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.

South Dakota State · 2025 schedule & results9-5Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 57% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.

Wk	Date	Us	Opp	Line	Opponent	Result	Record	Conf
1	Aug 30	#90	#182	-11.5	Sacramento State	W 20–3	1-0	0-0
2	Sep 7	#115	#55	-3	@Montana State	W 30–24	2-0	0-0
3	Sep 13	#97	#239	-34	Drake	W 37–21	3-0	0-0
5	Sep 27	#98	#244	-32.5	Mercyhurst	W 51–7	4-0	0-0
6	Oct 4	#96	#178	-15	@Youngstown State	W 35–30	5-0	1-0
7	Oct 11	#92	#223	-28.5	Northern Iowa	W 31–3	6-0	2-0
8	Oct 18	#82	#268	-37.5	@Murray State	W 35–14	7-0	3-0
9	Oct 26	#80	#58	+9	North Dakota State	L 7–38	7-1	3-0
10	Nov 1	#96	#234	-31	Indiana State	L 12–24	7-2	3-1
11	Nov 8	#117	#141	-7.5	@South Dakota	L 17–24	7-3	3-2
12	Nov 15	#126	#134	-3.5	Illinois State	L 21–35	7-4	3-3
13	Nov 22	#137	#90	+9.5	@North Dakota	W 34–31	8-4	4-3
Conference Championship
14	Nov 29	#120	#126	-11	New Hampshire	W 41–3	9-4	4-3
15	Dec 6	#96	#75	—	@Montana	L 29–50	9-5	4-3

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼

Date	Opp	Result	Yds	TO	TOP	EPA/play	Success%	Explosive%	Note
Dec 6	@Montana	L 29–50	—	—	—	+0.342	44.1%	153.9%	Most explosive
Nov 29	New Hampshire	W 41–3	—	—	—	+0.479	52.4%	128.2%	Season-high EPA/play
Nov 22	@North Dakota	W 34–31	—	—	—	+0.129	36.5%	118.5%	One-score win
Nov 15	Illinois State	L 21–35	—	—	—	-0.017	41.1%	112.8%
Nov 8	@South Dakota	L 17–24	—	—	—	+0.145	35.7%	135.3%	One-score loss
Nov 1	Indiana State	L 12–24	—	—	—	-0.043	43.6%	105.8%
Oct 26	North Dakota State	L 7–38	—	—	—	-0.110	30.6%	108.5%	Season-low EPA/play
Oct 11	Northern Iowa	W 31–3	—	—	—	+0.150	40.8%	121.2%	Blowout win
Oct 4	@Youngstown State	W 35–30	—	—	—	+0.223	43.9%	137.4%	One-score win
Sep 27	Mercyhurst	W 51–7	—	—	—	+0.450	59.4%	116.4%	Best success rate
Sep 13	Drake	W 37–21	—	—	—	+0.266	50.0%	114.2%
Aug 30	Sacramento State	W 20–3	—	—	—	+0.045	44.3%	105.8%	Best defensive stand
Season average (12 games)			—	—		+0.171	43.5%	121.5%

Schedule mirage

How much of South Dakota State's number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.17; 71st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.05. The widest gap came in week 5: 0.25 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.

Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model

CFB Zeitgeist

—

-1.6

SRS

—

-12.2

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · South Dakota State

Reads Like

DelawareTier 2 · Prestige T2 GramblingTier 2 · Prestige T2 MontanaTier 2 · Prestige T2

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Home-Field Advantage · South Dakota State · 2018-present

Strong

85% home win rate vs 68% on the road. margin runs +13.6 better at home. Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium seats 19,340, averaging 82% full (15,869 attendance, 15 games reported).

Home48-8Away28-13

Venue texture

56°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 12 mph average wind.

Based on 39 home games with weather data.

T1Regional

T2Mid-Major

T3Power

T4National

T5Blue Blood

T6Dynasty

T7All-Time

ERA RECORD 116-36 11 seasons

CFP BIDS 0 0/11 seasons

TITLE GAMES 0 0 appearances

TOP-10 FINISHES 0 AP polled only

TITLES 0 national champions

TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned

Program Quality AP Rank (inverted) CFP Appearance

CHAPTERS · 11 seasons · tap to open the archive

'14 9-5 '15 8-4 '16 9-4 '17 11-3 '18 10-3 '19 8-5 '21 11-3 '22 14-1 '23 15-0 '24 12-3 '25 9-5

South Dakota State's 2014–2025 record is 116-36. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.

All-Time Record

182-117

since 1916 · 56 seasons · .608 win rate

HOME 63-14

AWAY 71-85

NEUTRAL 48-18

1910s

1920s

1930s

1940s

1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

2000s

2010s

2020s

The program, in full — read the essay

South Dakota State won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2022 and 2023, and now races against a closing window as rival North Dakota State exits to the FBS, almost certainly ending the Dakota Marker rivalry.

South Dakota State's football program ascended from a quiet presence in the Missouri Valley Football Conference to a national power in a single generation. On January 8, 2023, head coach John Stiegelmeier delivered the school's first-ever FCS national championship, a 45–24 victory over rival North Dakota State in Frisco, Texas, following a season-opening loss to Iowa and a 14-consecutive-win streak to close the season.

Stiegelmeier, honored as Stats Perform FCS Coach of the Year, announced his retirement less than two weeks after the victory. The transition tested the dynasty's durability. Instead of fracturing, it proved systemic: Jimmy Rogers, named the 21st head coach on January 20, 2023, inherited a national champion and won immediately in his first season as a head coach at any level, leading SDSU to a perfect 15–0 record and a second consecutive national championship, defeating Montana 23–3 on January 7, 2024.

The 2025 season saw a third coach take over: Dan Jackson, an SDSU alumnus and former defensive back coach at Vanderbilt, inherited a program with championship equity but facing realignment uncertainty. NDSU's announcement in February 2026 that it would join the Mountain West Conference (FBS) almost certainly ended the Dakota Marker rivalry—the primary institutional identity anchor that had defined SDSU since 2004. SDSU finished 9–4 in the regular season and won a first-round playoff game 41–3 over New Hampshire before falling 50–29 to Montana in the second round on December 6, 2025—a rematch of the 2024 championship game.

How they play

System-first football: disciplined, scheme-based, quarterback-production football that develops NFL talent on a four-year pipeline. SDSU football prioritizes fundamentals, ball security, and playoff preparedness. The program is not recruitment-heavy; it is system-heavy. Stiegelmeier built it, Rogers proved it traveled, and Jackson now inherits it in a narrowing competitive landscape.

program outlook · as of 2026-07-03

Steady

South Dakota State 2015–2025. Holding the line. The 10-year slope (+0.00 rungs / yr) doesn't tilt either way — the program lives at roughly Tier 3.

down middle peak CFP year

Season Standing · 2025

Season standing settles in once games are played and rankings publish.

#	Program	Record
1	South Dakota	6-1
2	Illinois State	5-2
3	North Dakota	5-2
4	Youngstown State	5-2
5	South Dakota State	4-3
6	Southern Illinois	4-3
7	Indiana State	1-6
8	Northern Iowa	1-6
9	Murray State	1-7

Rituals

The rituals that anchor a Saturday in this program's world.

Back-to-Back FCS Championships (2022-2023)

since 2022

The Dakota Marker Rivalry

since 2004

Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium

since 2016

2022 FCS National Championship

South Dakota State defeated NDSU 45–24 on January 8, 2023, winning the program's first FCS national championship

2023

John Stiegelmeier Retires

Less than two weeks after winning the national title, Stiegelmeier announced his retirement after 26 seasons

2023 FCS National Championship

Under Jimmy Rogers, SDSU went 15–0 and defeated Montana 23–3 on January 7, 2024, defending the national title

2025 Playoff Loss to Montana

SDSU defeated New Hampshire 41–3 in the first round but lost to Montana 50–29 in the second round on December 6, 2025

Wound

2026

NDSU Announces FBS Move

On February 11, 2026, NDSU announced it would join the Mountain West Conference (FBS) effective 2026, almost certainly ending the Dakota Marker rivalry

Wound

Moment of the Year · South Dakota State · 2025

Won 20-3 vs Sacramento State

Week 1 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.

Decisive Margin

Bowl / Postseason Ledger

Recent postseason (2017-2024): 6-5

Most recent: 2024 — loss 28-21 (away). Last 5 postseason: 4-1.

20242023202320232023

NFL Draft Pipeline

2022–2024

Developing

5 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.

5 picks · 0 R1

#78 Tucker Kraft Tight End · 2023 · Green Bay

#119 Mason McCormick Offensive Guard · 2024 · Pittsburgh

#127 Pierre Strong Jr. Running Back · 2022 · New England

#128 all-time · 1 first-round picksthe talent factory →

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Roster Reload - South Dakota State

South Dakota State faces roster challenges but remains competitive in 2026

Transfer portal snapshot

Floor / Base / Ceiling

Cooling

Community pulse

The Pulse on South Dakota State

Growing (61)

How much of South Dakota State's number is the schedule?

Where the Models Rank South Dakota State

Reads Like

Strong

Mid-Major Contender

The CFP Era

182-117

How they play

Steady

CFP Era · South Dakota State

5th in the MVFC

Rituals

Back-to-Back FCS Championships (2022-2023)

The Dakota Marker Rivalry

Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium

What this program never forgets

2022 FCS National Championship

John Stiegelmeier Retires

2023 FCS National Championship

2025 Playoff Loss to Montana

NDSU Announces FBS Move

Won 20-3 vs Sacramento State

Recent postseason (2017-2024): 6-5

Developing