South Dakota State beats South Dakota 31-21
Team pages: South Dakota · South Dakota State
South Dakota State beat South Dakota 31-21. Share this game
We had South Dakota State favored. It won.
Next: South Dakota vs Northern Iowa, Sat Nov 14 · 2:00 PM ET
Next: South Dakota State at Northern Iowa, Sat Nov 7 · 2:00 PM ET
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Dakota State a 54% chance, and the closing betting line (South Dakota State was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.
Favored the whole way: South Dakota State never fell below 67%.
South Dakota never had better than a 32% chance.
South Dakota State 31-21 South Dakota
South Dakota State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.South Dakota 21-31 South Dakota StateSouth Dakota lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The play that swung it
- 1Q1 12:39FumbleO'Groske run for a 1-yd loss, fumblesSouth Dakota State 81% → 68% (−13)
The play that swung it
- 1Q1 12:39FumbleO'Groske run for a 1-yd loss, fumblesSouth Dakota 19% → 32% (+13)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (South Dakota State -7), at 75% for South Dakota State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
South Dakota State scored on 5 of its 12 drives; South Dakota on 3 of its 12.
South Dakota State’s drives are teal, South Dakota’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From South Dakota’s side
South Dakota’s best moment: O'Groske run for a 1-yd loss, fumbles (Q1 12:39). It lifted South Dakota’s win chance by 13 points.
Box score
South Dakota State 31, South Dakota 21
South Dakota State covered −7 by 3. The total, 52, stayed under 54.5.
South Dakota leaders
- Passing Austyn Modrzewski 21 of 27, 233 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Jackson Proctor 5 for 16 yds; Charles Pierre Jr. 7 for 13 yds
- Receiving Bryce Cohoon 1 for 53 yds, 1 TD; Brayden White 4 for 45 yds, 1 TD
South Dakota State leaders
- Passing Chase Mason 16 of 26, 232 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Josiah Johnson 23 for 126 yds, 1 TD; James Basinger 17 for 84 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jack Smith 5 for 84 yds, 1 TD; Grahm Goering 6 for 84 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
South Dakota · 7-2
Rated 121st in our preseason ratings, 90th now, up 31 spots.
Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 48-20 @ Murray State No. 261 of 668 teams
won by 28 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 31-10 vs Southern Illinois No. 171 of 668 teams
won by 21 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 44-14 vs Indiana State No. 210 of 668 teams
won by 30 as a 16.5-point favorite
W 38-23 @ Northern Colorado No. 254 of 668 teams
won by 15 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 59-20 vs Central Connecticut No. 189 of 668 teams
won by 39 as a 20.5-point favorite
Last three games
South Dakota State · 6-2
Rated 105th in our preseason ratings, 86th now, up 19 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
South Dakota State
- Wk 3Wvs Youngstown State27-20
- Wk 4Wvs Eastern Illinois42-7
- Wk 5Wat Illinois State31-14
- Wk 7Lat North Dakota10-21
- Wk 8Wvs Murray State42-9
South Dakota
- Wk 4Lat Youngstown State28-47
- Wk 5Wvs Indiana State44-14
- Wk 6Wvs Southern Illinois31-10
- Wk 7Wat Murray State48-20
- Wk 8Wvs North Dakota26-23
Power rating by week
South Dakota State is rated 0.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
South Dakota State leads the series 10-3
13 meetings since 2012 · South Dakota won the last meeting
- 2025South Dakota 24-17
- 2024South Dakota State 20-17
- 2023South Dakota State 37-3
- 2022South Dakota State 28-3
- 2021South Dakota 23-20
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on South Dakota State’s chances here.
South Dakota State favored by 7 · Total 54.5
How games like this usually go
South Dakota State by 7, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 426 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward South Dakota State.
Spread: −6.5 → −7
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
South Dakota State is worth +6.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.
75% at home, 47% on the road against FBS opponents (6-2 home, 7-8 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.7 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±7.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 106 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- South Dakota State3rd3-1
- South Dakota2nd4-1