South Dakota State beats Illinois State 31-14

Team pages: South Dakota State · Illinois State

South Dakota State5-131
Illinois State4-214Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Hancock Stadium, Normal, Ill. · Crowd 10,171ESPN+

South Dakota State beat Illinois State 31-14.

Next: South Dakota State lost to North Dakota 21-10, Sat Oct 17

Next: Illinois State beat Southern Illinois 35-14, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Dakota State a 50% chance, and the closing betting line (South Dakota State was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.

South Dakota State won by 17, after dipping to 38% in the second quarter.

Illinois State never had better than a 62% chance.

FinalSouth Dakota State 31-14 Illinois StateSouth Dakota State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q466% at halfSouth Dakota StateWon31-1412+14−14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q466% at halfSouth Dakota StateWon31-1412Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q434% at halfSouth Dakota StateLowest 0%Lost14-3112−14+14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q434% at halfSouth Dakota StateLowest 0%Lost14-3112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 4:31Drzonek 45-yd field goal no goodSouth Dakota State 66% → 80% (+14)
  2. 2Q2 14:11FumbleHolst sacked for a 7-yd loss, fumblesSouth Dakota State 84% → 70% (−14)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 4:31Drzonek 45-yd field goal no goodIllinois State 34% → 20% (−14)
  2. 2Q2 14:11FumbleHolst sacked for a 7-yd loss, fumblesIllinois State 16% → 30% (+14)
South Dakota State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (South Dakota State -2.5), at 50% for South Dakota State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

South Dakota State scored on 4 of its 10 drives; Illinois State on 2 of its 10.

South Dakota State’s drives are teal, Illinois State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Illinois State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 62DownsSouth Dakota State: Touchdown, from 38 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 28Missed FGSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 72 yards out to 55PuntIllinois State: Interception, from 97 yards out to 82InterceptionQ2South Dakota State: Fumble, from 29 yards out to 36FumbleIllinois State: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntIllinois State: Punt, from 73 yards out to 49PuntSouth Dakota State: Field goal, from 95 yards out to 13Field goalQ3South Dakota State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 50PuntIllinois State: Punt, from 0 yards out to 0PuntSouth Dakota State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois State: Fumble, from 66 yards out to 36FumbleQ4South Dakota State: Punt, from 59 yards out to 43PuntIllinois State: Interception returned for a touchdown, from 99 yards out to 87Interception TDIllinois State: Punt, from 65 yards out to 63PuntSouth Dakota State: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownIllinois State: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: End of game, from 60 yards out to 48End of game

From Illinois State’s side

Illinois State’s best moment: Holst sacked for a 7-yd loss, fumbles (Q2 14:11). It lifted Illinois State’s win chance by 14 points.

Box score

South Dakota State 31, Illinois State 14

South Dakota State covered −2.5 by 14.5. The total, 45, stayed under 51.5.

South Dakota State leaders

  • Passing Josh Holst 18 of 23, 153 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Josiah Johnson 19 for 131 yds; James Basinger 7 for 90 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Lofton O'Groske 7 for 89 yds, 1 TD; Jack Smith 5 for 28 yds

Illinois State leaders

  • Passing Gage Roy 16 of 32, 141 yds, 2 INT
  • Rushing Victor Dawson 22 for 67 yds; Tyler Lofton 6 for 9 yds
  • Receiving Ian Willis 5 for 61 yds; Max Ziebarth 5 for 47 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

South Dakota State · 4-1

Rated 105th in our preseason ratings, 106th now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 42-7 vs Eastern Illinois #245 of 668

won by 35 as a 34.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 42-7 vs Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 99%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 27-20 vs Youngstown State #144 of 668

won by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 27-20 vs Youngstown State. Chance to win started at 80%, low 69%, high better than 99%.

W 57-14 vs New Haven #255 of 668

won by 43 as a 42.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 57-14 vs New Haven. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

L 18-34 @ NorthwesternTop 25 #14 of 668

lost by 16 as a 14-point underdog

South Dakota State lost 18-34 at Northwestern. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 19%.

W 70-7 vs Stetson #263 of 668

won by 63 as a 50.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 70-7 vs Stetson. Never in doubt.

Last three games

Illinois State · 4-1

Rated 126th in our preseason ratings, 111th now, up 15 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 21-28 @ Northern Iowa #169 of 668

lost by 7 as a 19.5-point favorite

Illinois State lost 21-28 at Northern Iowa. Chance to win started at 87%, low under 1%, high 87%.

W 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois #241 of 668

won by 36 as a 29.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 97%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 28-24 @ Northern Illinois #103 of 668

won by 4 as a 2.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 28-24 at Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 48%, low 23%, high 95%.

W 41-10 @ Western Illinois #201 of 668

won by 31 as a 20.5-point favorite

Illinois State won 41-10 at Western Illinois. Chance to win started at 88%, low 87%, high better than 99%.

W 76-0 vs St. Francis (IL)

Week by week

Illinois State

Wk 1: W 76-0 vs St. Francis (IL)▲76St. Fran…Wk 1: W 41-10 at Western Illinois▲31W. Illin…Wk 2: W 28-24 at Northern Illinois▲4N. Illin…Wk 3: W 49-13 vs Eastern Illinois▲36E. Illin…Wk 4: L 21-28 at Northern Iowa▼7N. Iowa
  • Wk 1Wvs St. Francis (IL)76-0
  • Wk 1Wat Western Illinois41-10
  • Wk 2Wat Northern Illinois28-24
  • Wk 3Wvs Eastern Illinois49-13
  • Wk 4Lat Northern Iowa21-28

South Dakota State

Wk 1: W 70-7 vs Stetson▲63StetsonWk 1: L 18-34 at Northwestern▼16Northwes…Wk 2: W 57-14 vs New Haven▲43New HavenWk 3: W 27-20 vs Youngstown State▲7Youngsto…Wk 4: W 42-7 vs Eastern Illinois▲35E. Illin…
  • Wk 1Wvs Stetson70-7
  • Wk 1Lat Northwestern18-34
  • Wk 2Wvs New Haven57-14
  • Wk 3Wvs Youngstown State27-20
  • Wk 4Wvs Eastern Illinois42-7

Power rating by week

South Dakota State is rated 0.6 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-4-7Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4Illinois StateSouth Dakota State

The series

South Dakota State leads the series 7-6

13 meetings since 2008 · Illinois State won the last meeting

Illinois State wonSouth Dakota State won2008: South Dakota State by 312009: South Dakota State by 212010: Illinois State by 102011: Illinois State by 72014: Illinois State by 352015: South Dakota State by 52016: Illinois State by 172017: South Dakota State by 32018: South Dakota State by 102019: Illinois State by 92022: South Dakota State by 242023: South Dakota State by 192025: Illinois State by 1420082025
  • 2025Illinois State 35-21
  • 2023South Dakota State 40-21
  • 2022South Dakota State 31-7
  • 2019Illinois State 27-18
  • 2018South Dakota State 38-28

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Illinois State’s chances here.

50-50Model 50% · Line 42%South Dakota StateIllinois State

South Dakota State favored by 2.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

South Dakota State by 2.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward South Dakota State.

opened +1.5now +2.5

The total fell 4 points.

opened 55.5now 51.5

Spread: +1.5 → +2.5 · Total: 55.5 → 51.5

The books’ cut: 5.5%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Illinois State is worth −4.4 points (±6.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 0th percentile.

14% at home, 31% on the road against FBS opponents (1-6 home, 4-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -5.6 at home vs. away over 54 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 476 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.