North Dakota upsets South Dakota State 21-10

Team pages: South Dakota State · North Dakota

South Dakota State5-210
North Dakota6-221Final
Sat, Oct 17 · Alerus Center, Grand Forks, N.D. · Crowd 12,922ESPN+

North Dakota beat South Dakota State 21-10 as a 14-point underdog.

We had South Dakota State favored. North Dakota won.

Next: South Dakota State vs Murray State, Sat Oct 24 · 3:00 PM ET

Next: North Dakota at South Dakota, Sat Oct 24 · 2:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Kaminski 12-yd TD pass to Deng, North Dakota leads 21-0 (Q2, 3:54). North Dakota went from 71% to 94% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota a 33% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota was a 14-point underdog) put it at 13%.

FinalNorth Dakota 21-10 South Dakota StateNorth Dakota wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q487% at halfNorth DakotaLowest 17%Won21-1012+23−16Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q487% at halfNorth DakotaLowest 17%Won21-1012Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q413% at halfNorth DakotaLowest 0%High 83%Lost10-2112−23+16Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q413% at halfNorth DakotaLowest 0%High 83%Lost10-2112Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 3:54Kaminski 12-yd TD pass to Deng, North Dakota leads 21-0North Dakota 71% → 94% (+23)
  2. 2Q3 13:35Basinger 63-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-10North Dakota 87% → 71% (−16)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 3:54Kaminski 12-yd TD pass to Deng, North Dakota leads 21-0South Dakota State 29% → 6% (−23)
  2. 2Q3 13:35Basinger 63-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-10South Dakota State 13% → 29% (+16)
North Dakota’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (South Dakota State -14), at 22% for North Dakota (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

North Dakota scored on 3 of its 12 drives; South Dakota State on 2 of its 11.

North Dakota’s drives are teal, South Dakota State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1North Dakota: Punt, from 77 yards out to 66PuntSouth Dakota State: Turned over on downs, from 67 yards out to 37DownsNorth Dakota: Punt, from 63 yards out to 73PuntSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 67 yards out to 71PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 73 yards out to 68PuntQ2North Dakota: Touchdown, from 62 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: Turned over on downs, from 86 yards out to 39DownsNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntNorth Dakota: Fumble, from 74 yards out to 66FumbleSouth Dakota State: Field goal, from 34 yards out to 12Field goalNorth Dakota: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3South Dakota State: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 46PuntSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 42PuntNorth Dakota: Punt, from 94 yards out to 76PuntSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 61PuntQ4North Dakota: Punt, from 84 yards out to 65PuntSouth Dakota State: Punt, from 85 yards out to 69PuntNorth Dakota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 61PuntSouth Dakota State: Missed field goal, from 83 yards out to 28Missed FGNorth Dakota: End of game, from 72 yards out to 61End of game

From South Dakota State’s side

South Dakota State’s best moment: Basinger 63-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-10 (Q3 13:35). It lifted South Dakota State’s win chance by 16 points.

Box score

North Dakota 21, South Dakota State 10

North Dakota covered +14 by 25. The total, 31, stayed under 56.5.

South Dakota State leaders

  • Passing Chase Mason 14 of 33, 169 yds
  • Rushing James Basinger 11 for 101 yds, 1 TD; Josiah Johnson 17 for 54 yds
  • Receiving Jack Smith 4 for 62 yds; Grahm Goering 4 for 47 yds

North Dakota leaders

  • Passing Jerry Kaminski 10 of 16, 116 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Matt Lawson 24 for 99 yds; Charles Langama 6 for 60 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Deng Deng 4 for 40 yds, 1 TD; Cameron Weir 1 for 35 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

South Dakota State · 5-1

Rated 105th in our preseason ratings, 81st now, up 24 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 31-14 @ Illinois State #122 of 668

won by 17 as a 2.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 31-14 at Illinois State. Chance to win started at 50%, low 38%, high better than 99%.

W 42-7 vs Eastern Illinois #245 of 668

won by 35 as a 34.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 42-7 vs Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 99%, low 97%, high better than 99%.

W 27-20 vs Youngstown State #144 of 668

won by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 27-20 vs Youngstown State. Chance to win started at 80%, low 69%, high better than 99%.

W 57-14 vs New Haven #255 of 668

won by 43 as a 42.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 57-14 vs New Haven. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

L 18-34 @ NorthwesternTop 25 #14 of 668

lost by 16 as a 14-point underdog

South Dakota State lost 18-34 at Northwestern. Chance to win started at 13%, low under 1%, high 19%.

W 70-7 vs Stetson #263 of 668

won by 63 as a 50.5-point favorite

South Dakota State won 70-7 vs Stetson. Never in doubt.

Last three games

North Dakota · 5-2

Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 115th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 17-24 @ Northern Iowa #162 of 668

lost by 7 as a 13.5-point favorite

North Dakota lost 17-24 at Northern Iowa. Chance to win started at 74%, low under 1%, high 88%.

W 55-28 vs Murray State #263 of 668

won by 27 as a 37.5-point favorite

North Dakota won 55-28 vs Murray State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 73%, high better than 99%.

W 42-35 @ Indiana State #200 of 668

won by 7 as a 17.5-point favorite

North Dakota won 42-35 at Indiana State. Chance to win started at 84%, low 80%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

North Dakota

Wk 2: W 47-23 at Portland State▲24Portland…Wk 3: L 7-34 at Nebraska▼27NebraskaWk 4: W 42-35 at Indiana State▲7Indiana…Wk 5: W 55-28 vs Murray State▲27Murray S…Wk 6: L 17-24 at Northern Iowa▼7N. Iowa
  • Wk 2Wat Portland State47-23
  • Wk 3Lat Nebraska7-34
  • Wk 4Wat Indiana State42-35
  • Wk 5Wvs Murray State55-28
  • Wk 6Lat Northern Iowa17-24

South Dakota State

Wk 1: L 18-34 at Northwestern▼16Northwes…Wk 2: W 57-14 vs New Haven▲43New HavenWk 3: W 27-20 vs Youngstown State▲7Youngsto…Wk 4: W 42-7 vs Eastern Illinois▲35E. Illin…Wk 5: W 31-14 at Illinois State▲17Illinois…
  • Wk 1Lat Northwestern18-34
  • Wk 2Wvs New Haven57-14
  • Wk 3Wvs Youngstown State27-20
  • Wk 4Wvs Eastern Illinois42-7
  • Wk 5Wat Illinois State31-14

Power rating by week

South Dakota State is rated 2.8 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

1-3-6Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6North DakotaSouth Dakota State

The series

South Dakota State leads the series 7-0

7 meetings since 2010 · South Dakota State has won the last 7

North Dakota wonSouth Dakota State won2010: South Dakota State by 212013: South Dakota State by 72021: South Dakota State by 32022: South Dakota State by 142023: South Dakota State by 212024: South Dakota State by 312025: South Dakota State by 320102025
  • 2025South Dakota State 34-31
  • 2024South Dakota State 38-7
  • 2023South Dakota State 42-21
  • 2022South Dakota State 49-35
  • 2021South Dakota State 24-21

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on North Dakota’s chances here.

50-50Model · 33%Line · 13%South Dakota StateNorth Dakota

South Dakota State favored by 14 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

South Dakota State by 14, on the usual path until Q1 4:00

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2.5 points toward South Dakota State.

opened +11.5now +14

Spread: +11.5 → +14

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

North Dakota is worth +10.4 points (±6.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

50% at home, 14% on the road against FBS opponents (3-3 home, 2-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.2 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±7.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 248 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.