Northern Iowa upsets North Dakota 24-17
Team pages: North Dakota · Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa beat North Dakota 24-17 as a 13.5-point underdog. Share this game
We had North Dakota favored. Northern Iowa won.
Next: North Dakota beat South Dakota State 21-10, Sat Oct 17
Next: Northern Iowa lost to Youngstown State 35-22, Sat Oct 17
How it swung
The turning point: 35-yd punt, Weir returns it 3 (Q4, 2:28). Northern Iowa went from 96% to 72% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Northern Iowa a 24% chance, and the closing betting line (Northern Iowa was a 13.5-point underdog) put it at 14%.
Northern Iowa 24-17 North Dakota
Northern Iowa wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.North Dakota 17-24 Northern IowaNorth Dakota lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 13:06Bormann 2-yd TD run, Northern Iowa leads 24-7Northern Iowa 61% → 82% (+21)
- 2Q4 2:28Special teams35-yd punt, Weir returns it 3Northern Iowa 96% → 72% (−24)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q2 13:06Bormann 2-yd TD run, Northern Iowa leads 24-7North Dakota 39% → 18% (−21)
- 2Q4 2:28Special teams35-yd punt, Weir returns it 3North Dakota 4% → 28% (+24)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (North Dakota -13.5), at 26% for Northern Iowa (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Northern Iowa scored on 3 of its 15 drives; North Dakota on 3 of its 15.
Northern Iowa’s drives are teal, North Dakota’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From North Dakota’s side
North Dakota’s best moment: 35-yd punt, Weir returns it 3 (Q4 2:28). It lifted North Dakota’s win chance by 24 points.
The winner fell to 11%.
Box score
Northern Iowa 24, North Dakota 17
Northern Iowa covered +13.5 by 20.5. The total, 41, stayed under 58.5.
North Dakota leaders
- Passing Jerry Kaminski 16 of 35, 152 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Matt Lawson 6 for 57 yds; Charles Langama 9 for 48 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Deng Deng 5 for 80 yds; Matt Lawson 3 for 34 yds
Northern Iowa leaders
- Passing Jaxon Dailey 13 of 21, 81 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Christian Collins 11 for 64 yds; Xavier Terrell 10 for 34 yds
- Receiving Taj Hughes 5 for 31 yds; Brady McCullough 2 for 26 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
North Dakota · 5-1
Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 110th now, up 13 spots.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Last 4 games
Northern Iowa · 2-2
Rated 176th in our preseason ratings, 168th now.
2-2 in its last 4, capped by a 7-point win over Illinois State as a 19.5-point underdog.
W 56-14 vs Drake #226 of 668
won by 42 as an 11.5-point favorite
Week by week
Northern Iowa
- Wk 1Lat Eastern Washington24-34
- Wk 2Wvs Drake56-14
- Wk 3Lat Iowa0-55
- Wk 4Wvs Illinois State28-21
North Dakota
- Wk 1Wvs St. Thomas (MN)62-26
- Wk 2Wat Portland State47-23
- Wk 3Lat Nebraska7-34
- Wk 4Wat Indiana State42-35
- Wk 5Wvs Murray State55-28
Power rating by week
North Dakota is rated 4.2 points ahead as of week 5. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
North Dakota leads the series 4-1
5 meetings since 2006 · North Dakota has won the last 2
- 2025North Dakota 35-7
- 2024North Dakota 31-7
- 2023Northern Iowa 27-0
- 2022North Dakota 29-27
- 2006North Dakota 35-31
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Northern Iowa’s chances here.
North Dakota favored by 13.5 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go
North Dakota by 13.5, on the usual path until Q1 1:45
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward North Dakota.
Spread: +11.5 → +13.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Northern Iowa is worth +8.2 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.
33% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (2-4 home, 2-16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.8 at home vs. away over 48 games — inside the ±8.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 435 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Northern Iowa5th1-0
- North Dakota3rd2-0