North Dakota beats Murray State 55-28

Team pages: Murray State · North Dakota

Murray State1-528
North Dakota5-155Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Alerus Center, Grand Forks, N.D. · Crowd 10,985ESPN+

North Dakota beat Murray State 55-28.

Next: Murray State lost to South Dakota 48-20, Sat Oct 17

Next: North Dakota lost to Northern Iowa 24-17, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota a 99% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota was a 37.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Favored the whole way: North Dakota never fell below 72%.

Murray State led by 21 but, as a 37.5-point underdog, never had better than a 27% chance.

55 unansweredNorth Dakota · Q2 0:05
FinalNorth Dakota 55-28 Murray StateNorth Dakota wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4North DakotaWon55-281−12Scores55 unanswered
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4North DakotaWon55-281Scores55 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4North DakotaLowest 0%Lost28-551+12Scores55 unanswered
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4North DakotaLowest 0%Lost28-551Scores55 unanswered

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 11:55Allen 2-yd TD run, Murray State leads 21-0North Dakota 88% → 76% (−12)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q2 11:55Allen 2-yd TD run, Murray State leads 21-0Murray State 12% → 24% (+12)
North Dakota’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (North Dakota -37.5), at 99% for North Dakota (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

North Dakota scored on 8 of its 14 drives; Murray State on 4 of its 13.

North Dakota’s drives are teal, Murray State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1North Dakota: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 34FumbleMurray State: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Fumble, from 76 yards out to 76FumbleMurray State: Touchdown, from 9 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntMurray State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2North Dakota: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 77PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 60 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 75 yards out to 80Punt TDMurray State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntNorth Dakota: Field goal, from 62 yards out to 8Field goalNorth Dakota: End of half, from 65 yards out to 65End of halfQ3Murray State: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 66DownsNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 34 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 45 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Fumble, from 81 yards out to 74FumbleNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 26 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Punt, from 78 yards out to 70PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 83 yards out to 0TouchdownMurray State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 66PuntQ4North Dakota: Field goal, from 69 yards out to 14Field goalMurray State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Punt, from 75 yards out to 64PuntMurray State: Interception, from 84 yards out to 75InterceptionNorth Dakota: End of game, from 38 yards out to 29End of game

From Murray State’s side

Murray State’s best moment: Allen 2-yd TD run, Murray State leads 21-0 (Q2 11:55). It lifted Murray State’s win chance by 12 points.

Box score

North Dakota 55, Murray State 28

Murray State covered +37.5 by 10.5. The total, 83, went over 56.5.

Murray State leaders

  • Passing Baxter Wright 11 of 18, 80 yds
  • Rushing Tyrell Campbell 13 for 51 yds, 1 TD; Mykel Allen 9 for 41 yds, 2 TD
  • Receiving Dimitri Howard 2 for 55 yds, 1 TD; Jaxon Potter 4 for 34 yds

North Dakota leaders

  • Passing Jerry Kaminski 18 of 24, 186 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Charles Langama 8 for 106 yds, 2 TD; Jerry Kaminski 10 for 98 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Deng Deng 4 for 79 yds; Nathan Hromadka 4 for 38 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Murray State · 1-4

Rated 254th in our preseason ratings, 261st now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 6-46 vs Southern Illinois #156 of 668

lost by 40 as a 17.5-point underdog

Murray State lost 6-46 vs Southern Illinois. Chance to win started at 17%, low under 1%, high 29%.

L 0-59 @ Oklahoma StateTop 25 #192 of 668

lost by 59 as a 56.5-point underdog

Murray State lost 0-59 at Oklahoma State. Never had a real chance.

W 27-18 vs Valparaiso #254 of 668

won by 9 as a 14-point favorite

Murray State won 27-18 vs Valparaiso. Chance to win started at 89%, low 79%, high better than 99%.

L 14-38 @ Middle Tennessee #136 of 668

lost by 24 as a 22.5-point underdog

Murray State lost 14-38 at Middle Tennessee. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 7%.

L 14-28 vs Eastern Illinois #200 of 668

lost by 14 as a 4.5-point favorite

Murray State lost 14-28 vs Eastern Illinois. Chance to win started at 67%, low under 1%, high 80%.

Last three games

North Dakota · 4-1

Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 114th now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 42-35 @ Indiana State #200 of 668

won by 7 as a 17.5-point favorite

North Dakota won 42-35 at Indiana State. Chance to win started at 84%, low 80%, high better than 99%.

L 7-34 @ Nebraska #33 of 668

lost by 27 as a 27.5-point underdog

North Dakota lost 7-34 at Nebraska. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 47-23 @ Portland State #239 of 668

won by 24 as a 25.5-point favorite

North Dakota won 47-23 at Portland State. Chance to win started at 93%, low 92%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

North Dakota

Wk 1: W 42-21 vs Long Island University▲21Long Isl…Wk 1: W 62-26 vs St. Thomas (MN)▲36St. Thom…Wk 2: W 47-23 at Portland State▲24Portland…Wk 3: L 7-34 at Nebraska▼27NebraskaWk 4: W 42-35 at Indiana State▲7Indiana…
  • Wk 1Wvs Long Island University42-21
  • Wk 1Wvs St. Thomas (MN)62-26
  • Wk 2Wat Portland State47-23
  • Wk 3Lat Nebraska7-34
  • Wk 4Wat Indiana State42-35

Murray State

Wk 1: L 14-28 vs Eastern Illinois▼14E. Illin…Wk 1: L 14-38 at Middle Tennessee▼24M. Tenne…Wk 2: W 27-18 vs Valparaiso▲9Valparai…Wk 3: L 0-59 at Oklahoma State▼59Oklahoma…Wk 4: L 6-46 vs Southern Illinois▼40S. Illin…
  • Wk 1Lvs Eastern Illinois14-28
  • Wk 1Lat Middle Tennessee14-38
  • Wk 2Wvs Valparaiso27-18
  • Wk 3Lat Oklahoma State0-59
  • Wk 4Lvs Southern Illinois6-46

Power rating by week

North Dakota is rated 10.6 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-8-15Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4North DakotaMurray State

The series

North Dakota leads the series 3-0

3 meetings since 2023 · North Dakota has won the last 3

  • 2025North Dakota 35-17
  • 2024North Dakota 72-35
  • 2023North Dakota 45-31

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on North Dakota’s chances here.

50-50Model 99% · Line 100%Murray StateNorth Dakota

North Dakota favored by 37.5 · Total 56.5

How games like this usually go

North Dakota by 37.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward North Dakota.

opened −35.5now −37.5

The total fell 4 points.

opened 60.5now 56.5

Spread: −35.5 → −37.5 · Total: 60.5 → 56.5

Home field

North Dakota is worth +10.4 points (±6.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

50% at home, 14% on the road against FBS opponents (3-3 home, 2-12 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.2 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±7.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 898 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.