Middle Tennessee beats Murray State 38-14
Team pages: Murray State · Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee beat Murray State 38-14. Share this game
We had Middle Tennessee favored. It won.
Next: Murray State beat Valparaiso 27-18, Sat Sep 12
How it swung
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Middle Tennessee a 78% chance, and the closing betting line (Middle Tennessee was a 22.5-point favorite) put it at 97%.
Favored the whole way: Middle Tennessee never fell below 93%.
Murray State never had better than a 7% chance.
Middle Tennessee · Q4 13:45TargetingQ4 11:01Middle Tennessee 38-14 Murray State
Middle Tennessee wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.09 in of rainMurray State 14-38 Middle TennesseeMurray State lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.At the airport: 0.09 in of rainNo single play moved the chance by 20 points.
No single play moved the chance by 20 points.
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Middle Tennessee -22.5), at 95% for Middle Tennessee (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Middle Tennessee scored on 5 of its 8 drives; Murray State on 2 of its 9.
Middle Tennessee’s drives are teal, Murray State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
Box score
Middle Tennessee 38, Murray State 14
Middle Tennessee covered −22.5 by 1.5. The total, 52, stayed under 55.5.
| Team totals | Murray State | Middle Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 290 | 396 |
| Passing | 13 of 22, 145 yds | 20 of 26, 200 yds |
| Rushing | 27 for 145 yds | 22 for 196 yds |
| First downs | 16 | 21 |
| Third down | 3 of 10 | 3 of 7 |
| Fourth down | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 |
| Penalties | 9 for 90 yds | 10 for 81 yds |
| Time of possession | 23:17 | 25:42 |
Murray State leaders
- Passing Jim Ogle 11 of 16, 118 yds
- Rushing Tyrell Campbell 8 for 75 yds, 1 TD; Mykel Allen 12 for 48 yds
- Receiving Dimitri Howard 3 for 49 yds; Trey Firestone 2 for 42 yds
Middle Tennessee leaders
- Passing Roman Gagliano 20 of 26, 200 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Antonio Martin 15 for 103 yds; Terrence Brown Jr. 4 for 66 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Cam'Ron Lacy 8 for 118 yds, 1 TD; Neo Clifton 2 for 37 yds, 1 TD
Play stopped for 54 minutes in the second quarter
88° at kickoff · 0.07 in of rain by radar over the stadium
Thunder was reported at Smyrna airport (14 miles away) from 6:56 p.m. to 7:06 p.m., around the stoppage.
Warmer than 9 in 10 of the 54 other games played at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium since 2016 (airport temperature during the game window). The usual here around this date is 76°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 85°.
September game-day temperatures at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at Murfreesboro airport, 1.9 miles away. The paler thunder bar is thunder reported in the vicinity of an airport. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
Murray State · 1-11
Rated 254th in our preseason ratings, 254th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 14-point win over Indiana State as a 13-point underdog.
W 31-17 @ Indiana State #247 of 667
won by 14 as a 13-point underdog
L 17-35 vs North Dakota #89 of 667
lost by 18 as a 34-point underdog
L 14-31 @ Northern Iowa #223 of 667
lost by 17 as a 12.5-point underdog
L 7-27 vs Southern Illinois #137 of 667
lost by 20 as a 24.5-point underdog
L 17-51 @ Youngstown State #155 of 667
lost by 34 as a 24.5-point underdog
L 14-35 vs South Dakota State #76 of 667
lost by 21 as a 37.5-point underdog
L 32-46 vs Illinois State #157 of 667
lost by 14 as a 23.5-point underdog
L 24-49 @ South Dakota #136 of 667
L 10-45 @ Jacksonville State #93 of 667
lost by 35 as a 35.5-point underdog
L 21-37 @ Georgia State #108 of 667
lost by 16 as a 31.5-point underdog
L 24-45 vs SE Louisiana #160 of 667
lost by 21 as a 21.5-point underdog
L 17-45 @ East Tennessee State #151 of 667
lost by 28 as a 31-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Middle Tennessee · 3-9
Rated 133rd in our preseason ratings.
W 31-24 @ New Mexico State #197 of 667
won by 7 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 31-17 vs Sam Houston #227 of 667
won by 14 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 26-42 @ Western Kentucky #98 of 667
lost by 16 as a 13.5-point underdog
L 30-56 vs Florida International #121 of 667
lost by 26 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 21-24 vs Jacksonville State #120 of 667
lost by 3 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 28-31 @ Delaware #131 of 667
lost by 3 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 20-22 vs Missouri State #132 of 667
lost by 2 as a 2.5-point underdog
L 16-24 @ Kennesaw State #164 of 667
lost by 8 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 28-42 vs Marshall #95 of 667
lost by 14 as a 2.5-point underdog
W 14-13 @ Nevada #151 of 667
won by 1 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 10-42 @ Wisconsin #44 of 667
lost by 32 as a 28.5-point underdog
L 14-34 vs Austin Peay #124 of 667
lost by 20 as a 16.5-point favorite
The series
Middle Tennessee leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2000 · Middle Tennessee has won the last 2
- 2023Middle Tennessee 35-14
- 2000Middle Tennessee 44-28
Each line is Middle Tennessee’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Middle Tennessee’s chances here.
Middle Tennessee favored by 22.5 · Total 55.5
How games like this usually go
Middle Tennessee by 22.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Middle Tennessee.
The total fell 4 points.
Spread: −20.5 → −22.5 · Total: 59.5 → 55.5
The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Hot and dry. Feels like 91° at kickoff.
Murray State at Middle Tennessee · Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, Murfreesboro
- 91°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 72weather score, Rough
- 2ndbest of the day's 7 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 7 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was the second best of the day's seven kickoff times. At Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 80, against 72 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 41, Harsh
- noon: 38, Harsh
- 2:30 pm: 39, Harsh
- 3:15 pm: 42, Harsh
- 4 pm: 46, Harsh
- 6 pm: 72, Rough (this game)
- 7 pm: 80, Mixed
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 5, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Middle Tennessee is worth +5.7 points (±4.0) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 78th percentile.
50% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (19-19 home, 16-38 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -0.2 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 121 miles to get here.