North Dakota beats Portland State 47-23

Team pages: North Dakota · Portland State

North Dakota3-047
Portland State0-323Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Hillsboro Stadium, Portland, Ore. · Crowd 1,455ESPN+

North Dakota beat Portland State 47-23.

We had North Dakota favored. It won.

Next: North Dakota lost to Nebraska 34-7, Sat Sep 19

Next: Portland State lost to Oregon 84-0, Fri Sep 18

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave North Dakota a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (North Dakota was a 25.5-point favorite) put it at 98%.

Favored the whole way: North Dakota never fell below 92%.

Portland State never had better than an 8% chance.

FinalNorth Dakota 47-23 Portland StateNorth Dakota wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won47-23Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4Won47-23Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost23-47Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4Lowest 0%Lost23-47Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

North Dakota’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (North Dakota -25.5), at 93% for North Dakota (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

North Dakota scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Portland State on 4 of its 13.

North Dakota’s drives are teal, Portland State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1North Dakota: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 25Missed FGNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 19Missed FGQ2North Dakota: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 20Field goalPortland State: Punt, from 61 yards out to 55PuntNorth Dakota: Punt, from 93 yards out to 86PuntPortland State: Touchdown, from 54 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Punt, from 82 yards out to 61PuntNorth Dakota: Punt, from 95 yards out to 59PuntPortland State: Safety, from 98 yards out to 100SafetyNorth Dakota: End of half, from 65 yards out to 18End of halfQ3Portland State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 60PuntNorth Dakota: Interception, from 76 yards out to 24InterceptionPortland State: Punt, from 90 yards out to 90PuntNorth Dakota: Turned over on downs, from 35 yards out to 20DownsPortland State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Portland State: Punt, from 72 yards out to 58PuntNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 99 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Fumble, from 81 yards out to 86FumbleNorth Dakota: Touchdown, from 14 yards out to 0TouchdownPortland State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Dakota: Uncategorized, from 68 yards out to 1Uncategorized

Box score

North Dakota 47, Portland State 23

Portland State covered +25.5 by 1.5. The total, 70, went over 60.5.

North Dakota leaders

  • Passing Jerry Kaminski 21 of 29, 336 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Charles Langama 6 for 83 yds; Matt Lawson 13 for 75 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Korey Tai 4 for 140 yds, 1 TD; Cameron Weir 4 for 58 yds

Portland State leaders

  • Passing Gabe Downing 23 of 39, 233 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Delon Thompson 14 for 58 yds; Niall Raby 7 for 31 yds
  • Receiving Terence Loville 3 for 71 yds; Darius Bailey 3 for 56 yds, 1 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

North Dakota · 2-0

Rated 123rd in our preseason ratings, 111th now, up 12 spots.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 62-26 vs St. Thomas (MN) #172 of 668

won by 36 as a 28.5-point favorite

North Dakota won 62-26 vs St. Thomas (MN). Chance to win started at 98%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 42-21 vs Long Island University #164 of 668

won by 21 as a 27.5-point favorite

North Dakota won 42-21 vs Long Island University. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

Last two games

Portland State · 0-2

Rated 252nd in our preseason ratings, 242nd now.

Two straight losses.

L 20-53 @ San Diego State #40 of 668

lost by 33 as a 38.5-point underdog

Portland State lost 20-53 at San Diego State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 4%.

L 24-31 vs UC Davis #115 of 668

lost by 7 as a 25.5-point underdog

Week by week

Portland State

Wk 1: L 24-31 vs UC Davis▼7UC DavisWk 1: L 20-53 at San Diego State▼33San Diego State
  • Wk 1Lvs UC Davis24-31
  • Wk 1Lat San Diego State20-53

North Dakota

Wk 1: W 42-21 vs Long Island University▲21Long Island UniversityWk 1: W 62-26 vs St. Thomas (MN)▲36St. Thomas (MN)
  • Wk 1Wvs Long Island University42-21
  • Wk 1Wvs St. Thomas (MN)62-26

The series

North Dakota leads the series 5-1

6 meetings since 2013 · North Dakota has won the last 5

Portland State wonNorth Dakota won2013: Portland State by 42014: North Dakota by 82015: North Dakota by 22017: North Dakota by 272018: North Dakota by 72025: North Dakota by 3020132025
  • 2025North Dakota 50-20
  • 2018North Dakota 17-10
  • 2017North Dakota 48-21
  • 2015North Dakota 19-17
  • 2014North Dakota 24-16

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Portland State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 27%Line · 2%North DakotaPortland State

North Dakota favored by 25.5 · Total 60.5

How games like this usually go

North Dakota by 25.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The total rose 2 points.

opened 58.5now 60.5

Total: 58.5 → 60.5

The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Portland State is worth +1.4 points (±6.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom tenth of FBS, 9th percentile.

0% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 2-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.2 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±8.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,227 miles to get here.

Where next