North Dakota at Portland State
How they got here
Last two games
North Dakota · 2-0
Picked #124 in the preseason · now #121 — about right.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 62–26 vs St. Thomas (MN) #194 of 669
won by 36 as a 28.5-point favorite
W 42–21 vs Long Island University #154 of 669
won by 21 as a 27.5-point favorite
Last two games
Portland State · 0-2
Picked #252 in the preseason · now #211 — better than expected.
Two straight losses.
L 20–53 @ San Diego State #52 of 669
lost by 33 as a 38.5-point underdog
L 24–31 vs UC Davis #127 of 669
lost by 7 as a 25.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
North Dakota
- North Dakota needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- North Dakota is coming off a 24-point win.
Portland State
- Portland State needs 6 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Portland State is still shaking off a 24-point loss.
The series
North Dakota leads the series 6-1
7 meetings since 2013 · North Dakota has won the last 6
- 2026North Dakota 47–23
- 2025North Dakota 50–20
- 2018North Dakota 17–10
- 2017North Dakota 48–21
- 2015North Dakota 19–17
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on Portland State’s chances here.
Home +25.5 · O/U 60.5
Conditions
58°F · 7 mph wind · Rain
Portland State is worth +27.3 points (±21.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
60% at home, 11% on the road against FBS opponents (3–2 home, 2–16 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.7 at home vs. away over 50 games — inside the ±8.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,227 miles to get here.
North Dakota 47 – Portland State 23
Called it — picked North Dakota to win.
Recent games
Portland State
- Wk 1Lvs UC Davis24-31
- Wk 1Lat San Diego State20-53
North Dakota
- Wk 1Wvs Long Island University42-21
- Wk 1Wvs St. Thomas (MN)62-26
Trajectory
North Dakota beat Portland State 47-23 — exactly what the pregame pick had.