UC Davis — CFB Zeitgeist

UC Davis9-4

Hope-Doping·Offseason

UC Davis is the Big Sky blue blood that dominated the Causeway Classic against Sacramento State — winning the last three meetings including the finale on November 22, 2025 — and now enters 2026 without the defining rival that built the program's regional identity for 71 years.

Title DroughtSince 2018 · 7 yrs

UC Davis fans believe the Big Sky is a legitimate FCS home — not a stepping stone — and that the program's Sochor legacy and recent playoff runs prove the FCS is where this program thrives. They say S…

offseason · quiet

Read the full program story ↓

Roster Reload - UC Davis

2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06

Returning ProductionNAContinuity signal unavailable

Portal Additions5Primary repair: ATH

Portal Losses3Primary pressure: S

Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded

Recruiting ReloadNARecruiting class signal unavailable

RBin 1 - Chauncey Sylvester3.49out 1 - Carter Vargas3.60Even

QBin 1 - Jackson Kollock3.50out 1 - Caden Pinnick3.50Even

ATHin 1 - Hayden John3.49out 0Upgrade

TEin 1 - Jacob Houseworth3.49out 0Upgrade

Sin 0out 1 - Lamont Shamburger3.40Downgrade

Kin 1 - Robert Meyer1.00out 0Even

Approaching

23 days

until kickoff · at Portland State · Sat Aug 29 · 19:00 UTC

The experience

UC Davis is the Big Sky blue blood that owns the Causeway Classic rivalry with Sacramento State — winning the last three meetings including a 31-27 victory in the finale on November 22, 2025 — only to watch the Hornets leave for the FBS and end the series, stranding the Aggies without their defining annual game.

2026 Preview Thesis 2026 Evidence-validated

UC Davis Faces Balanced Portal Churn in 2026 Season

The team enters the season with a balanced transfer profile, adding five players while losing three, but lacks clear recruiting or returning production data to predict outcomes.

Roster reloadUC Davis has added five transfers, including notable names like Jackson Kollock and Chauncey Sylvester, but also lost three players, such as Caden Pinnick and Carter Vargas.

Data as of 2026-08-01 · Validated against program evidence

Gunrock stands ready.

Transfer portal snapshot

+4.5 net portal points

(raw ledger: +4.5 — unweighted, no position adjustment)

ATH

+3.5

low confidence

+3.5

low confidence

-3.4

low confidence

+1.0

low confidence

-0.1

+0.0

Floor 4-8

Base 8-5

Ceiling 11-2

floor4-8No postseason.

base8-5Bowl game.

ceiling11-2Bowl game.

Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.

Recent Form · last 10 games

Mixed

Three of five. Trending up, not yet hot.

Streak L1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 7-3

The forecast

Opens Aug 29

vs Portland State · away

Community pulse

No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.

Player stats — 2025 season

No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.

UC Davis · 2025 schedule & results9-4Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 52% · 1 AP top-25 opponent on the schedule.

Wk	Date	Us	Opp	Line	Opponent	Result	Record	Conf
1	Aug 31	#108	#228	-18.5	@Utah Tech	W 31–24	1-0	1-0
2	Sep 7	#141	#61	+29.5	@Washington	L 10–70 128	1-1	1-0
4	Sep 21	#118	#156	-6.5	Southern Utah	W 50–34	2-1	2-0
5	Sep 28	#118	#164	-16.5	Weber State	W 34–12	3-1	3-0
6	Oct 5	#116	#170	—	@Cal Poly	W 34–27	4-1	4-0
7	Oct 11	#111	#162	-7	Northern Arizona	W 45–24	5-1	5-0
9	Oct 25	#104	#189	-8.5	@Northern Colorado	W 27–16	6-1	6-0
10	Nov 1	#100	#209	-11.5	Idaho State	L 36–38	6-2	6-1
11	Nov 9	#116	#155	-2.5	@Idaho	W 28–14	7-2	7-1
12	Nov 16	#110	#50	+19	@Montana State	L 17–38	7-3	7-2
13	Nov 22	#112	#125	-5	Sacramento State	W 31–27	8-3	7-2
Conference Championship
15	Dec 7	#113	#87	—	Rhode Island	W 47–26	9-3	7-2
16	Dec 13	#96	#108	-3	Illinois State	L 31–42	9-4	7-2

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼

Date	Opp	Result	Yds	TO	TOP	EPA/play	Success%	Explosive%	Note
Dec 13	Illinois State	L 31–42	—	—	—	+0.162	52.2%	102.7%
Dec 7	Rhode Island	W 47–26	—	—	—	+0.351	52.7%	130.7%
Nov 22	Sacramento State	W 31–27	—	—	—	+0.291	55.0%	114.6%	One-score win
Nov 16	@Montana State	L 17–38	—	—	—	+0.006	45.3%	106.9%	Season-low EPA/play
Nov 9	@Idaho	W 28–14	—	—	—	+0.169	49.3%	106.9%
Nov 1	Idaho State	L 36–38	—	—	—	+0.239	60.5%	95.1%	Best success rate
Oct 25	@Northern Colorado	W 27–16	—	—	—	+0.241	46.5%	119.8%
Oct 11	Northern Arizona	W 45–24	—	—	—	+0.514	53.4%	151.4%
Oct 5	@Cal Poly	W 34–27	—	—	—	+0.455	50.0%	146.4%	One-score win
Sep 28	Weber State	W 34–12	—	—	—	+0.351	53.8%	117.9%	Best defensive stand
Sep 21	Southern Utah	W 50–34	—	—	—	+0.709	52.1%	191.8%	Season-high EPA/play
Sep 7	@Washington	L 10–70	218	1	24:52	+0.054	27.5%	169.8%	Defense's roughest night
Aug 31	@Utah Tech	W 31–24	—	—	—	+0.073	37.7%	131.1%	One-score win
Season average (13 games)			218	1.0		+0.278	48.9%	129.6%

Schedule mirage

How much of UC Davis's number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.28; 91st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.08. The widest gap came in week 8: 0.36 raw vs. 0.12 adjusted.

Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model

CFB Zeitgeist

—

-2.4

SRS

—

-14.1

National rank of 136 FBS teams · 2025 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Most Similar Programs · UC Davis

Reads Like

DelawareTier 2 · Prestige T2 GramblingTier 2 · Prestige T2 MontanaTier 2 · Prestige T2

Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.

Home-Field Advantage · UC Davis · 2018-present

Strong

71% home win rate vs 58% on the road. margin runs +12.4 better at home. Aggie Stadium seats 10,743, averaging 104% full (11,186 attendance, 14 games reported).

Home28-11Away27-19

Venue texture

69°F average kickoff temp; 3% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.

Based on 29 home games with weather data.

T1Regional

T2Mid-Major

T3Power

T4National

T5Blue Blood

T6Dynasty

T7All-Time

ERA RECORD 68-62 11 seasons

CFP BIDS 0 0/11 seasons

TITLE GAMES 0 0 appearances

TOP-10 FINISHES 0 AP polled only

TITLES 0 national champions

TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned

Program Quality AP Rank (inverted) CFP Appearance

CHAPTERS · 11 seasons · tap to open the archive

'14 — '15 — '16 — '17 — '18 10-3 '19 5-7 '21 8-4 '22 — '23 — '24 11-3 '25 9-4

UC Davis's 2014–2025 record is 68-62. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.

All-Time Record

118-135-1

since 1926 · 43 seasons · .464 win rate

HOME 56-40

AWAY 53-86-1

NEUTRAL 9-9

1920s

1930s

1940s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

2010s

2020s

The program, in full — read the essay

UC Davis won the final Causeway Classic on November 22, 2025 — a 31-27 victory that crowned the Aggies victorious in the 71-year rivalry, but also ended it.

UC Davis enters 2026 without the defining annual game that built the program's regional identity for seven decades. The Aggies defeated Sacramento State 31-27 in the series finale on November 22, 2025, extending their all-time lead to 46-19 and capturing three straight meetings against the Hornets. But Sacramento State's move to the Mid-American Conference means there are no future scheduled dates — the Causeway Classic, born in 1954 as a showdown between cross-town neighbors in the Sacramento Valley, is paused after 71 years of continuous play (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causeway_Classic).

UC Davis is built on something deeper than the Causeway Classic, though: the Jim Sochor dynasty. Sochor arrived as head coach in 1970 and spent 18 years winning 18 consecutive conference championships (1971-1988), a winning percentage of .785, and ultimately induction into the College Football Hall of Fame — a streak matched only by Mount Union College in NCAA history across any division level (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UC_Davis_Aggies_football). The dynasty established the Aggies as one of the FCS's blue-blood programs, the standard against which a small college program measures sustained excellence.

That legacy was reinforced recently. Under second-year coach Tim Plough, UC Davis made back-to-back FCS playoff appearances in 2024 and 2025, both ending in quarterfinals. The 2025 season was particularly strong: a 9-4 record, 6-2 in Big Sky Conference play, ranked #8 nationally. The Aggies beat Rhode Island in the second round before losing to Illinois State in the quarterfinal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_UC_Davis_Aggies_football_team). Plough enters 2026 entering his 3rd season with momentum, a Big Sky contender without the rival that used to define November.

The grief is specific: UC Davis didn't lose the Causeway Classic on the field, and they didn't lose it to Sacramento State's superiority. They lost it to institutional ambition — the Hornets' leap to the FBS removed the annual date that rooted both programs in regional pride. The Aggies won that final meeting and owned the series. But the victory carries the weight of closure, not celebration.

How they play

Up-tempo spread offense with aggressive, high-paced execution. Disciplined fundamentals rooted in the Sochor-era philosophy, now under offensive coordinator Paul Shelton in his 2nd year.

program outlook · as of 2026-07-03

Rising

UC Davis 2015–2025. Climbing +1.6 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope +0.27 rungs / year — moving up the prestige scale.

down middle peak CFP year

Season Standing · 2025

Season standing settles in once games are played and rankings publish.

#	Program	Record
1	Montana State	9-0
2	UC Davis	7-2
3	Montana	6-2
4	Northern Arizona	6-4
5	Idaho State	5-4
6	Eastern Washington	4-3
7	Idaho	3-5
8	Southern Utah	2-2
9	Northern Colorado	2-5
10	Weber State	2-5
11	Cal Poly	1-6
12	Portland State	1-6
13	Utah Tech	0-4

Rituals

The rituals that anchor a Saturday in this program's world.

The Causeway Classic vs. Sacramento State

since 1954

The Jim Sochor Dynasty (1970-1988)

since 1970

Gunrock, the Mustang Mascot

since 1921

1971

The Miracle Game

UC Davis defeated Cal State Hayward 30-29 with 16 points in the final 44 seconds, culminating in a touchdown pass from Bob Biggs to Mike Bellotti with 4 seconds remaining

1988

The Sochor Dynasty

Ended after 18 consecutive conference championships (1971-1988), a streak matched only by Mount Union in NCAA history at any division level

2018 Big Sky Championship

UC Davis's first Big Sky title, establishing the program as a Division I FCS contender

2025

Back-to-back FCS playoff runs

UC Davis made the 2024 and 2025 FCS playoffs, both ending in quarterfinals with #8 national ranking in 2025

2025

The Final Causeway Classic

UC Davis defeated Sacramento State 31-27 on November 22, 2025, winning the last three meetings in the series and ending the rivalry with the Aggies on top, 46-19 all-time

Moment of the Year · UC Davis · 2025

Won 50-34 vs Southern Utah

Week 4 of 2025. The single game that defined the season's arc.

Decisive Margin

What this program means

UC Davis is the Big Sky dynasty that built its identity on the Sochor era's 18-title streak and recent Big Sky success (2018 title, consecutive 2024-2025 playoff appearances), only to watch its defining rival escape to the FBS just as the Aggies were hitting their stride.

From inside: Davis-Loyalist-Historian
From outside: FCS-Underrated-Program-Respecter

If the program didn't exist, CFB would lose One of the FCS's most historically significant blue-blood programs — the only one to match Mount Union's 18-title conference-championship streak — and proof that a small college with Hall of Fame coaching can build something that outlasts any single season. Plus the loss of the Causeway Classic stands as a literal case study in how realignment fractures the regional identities that defined the FCS.

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Roster Reload - UC Davis

UC Davis Faces Balanced Portal Churn in 2026 Season

Transfer portal snapshot

Floor / Base / Ceiling

Mixed

Community pulse

The Pulse on UC Davis

Growing (67)

How much of UC Davis's number is the schedule?

Where the Models Rank UC Davis

Reads Like

Strong

Mid-Major Contender

The CFP Era

118-135-1

How they play

Rising

CFP Era · UC Davis

2nd in the Big Sky

Rituals

The Causeway Classic vs. Sacramento State

The Jim Sochor Dynasty (1970-1988)

Gunrock, the Mustang Mascot

What this program never forgets

The Miracle Game

The Sochor Dynasty

2018 Big Sky Championship

Back-to-back FCS playoff runs

The Final Causeway Classic

Won 50-34 vs Southern Utah