UC Davis beats Eastern Washington 49-38

Team pages: Eastern Washington · UC Davis

Eastern Washington1-538
UC Davis4-249Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Aggie Stadium, Davis, Calif. · Crowd 8,677ESPN2

UC Davis beat Eastern Washington 49-38.

Next: Eastern Washington beat Northern Colorado 31-22, Sat Oct 10

Next: UC Davis lost to Southern Utah 38-17, Sat Oct 17

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UC Davis a 79% chance, and the closing betting line (UC Davis was a 8.5-point favorite) put it at 75%.

Favored the whole way: UC Davis never fell below 71%.

Eastern Washington never had better than a 28% chance.

FinalUC Davis 49-38 Eastern WashingtonUC Davis wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfUC DavisWon49-38Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q486% at halfUC DavisWon49-38Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfUC DavisLowest 0%Lost38-49Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q414% at halfUC DavisLowest 0%Lost38-49Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

UC Davis’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (UC Davis -8.5), at 73% for UC Davis (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

UC Davis scored on 8 of its 14 drives; Eastern Washington on 8 of its 14.

UC Davis’s drives are teal, Eastern Washington’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Eastern Washington: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 33Field goalUC Davis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Turned over on downs, from 73 yards out to 33DownsUC Davis: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 16Field goalUC Davis: Punt, from 75 yards out to 44PuntEastern Washington: Interception, from 80 yards out to 32InterceptionUC Davis: Punt, from 80 yards out to 65PuntQ2Eastern Washington: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Turned over on downs, from 64 yards out to 28DownsEastern Washington: Punt, from 72 yards out to 54PuntUC Davis: Punt, from 99 yards out to 78PuntEastern Washington: Punt, from 70 yards out to 68PuntUC Davis: Touchdown, from 87 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Field goal, from 75 yards out to 6Field goalQ3UC Davis: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Field goal, from 66 yards out to 7Field goalUC Davis: Touchdown, from 7 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntUC Davis: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Washington: Punt, from 77 yards out to 74PuntQ4UC Davis: Field goal, from 67 yards out to 10Field goalEastern Washington: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: Interception, from 46 yards out to 35InterceptionEastern Washington: Touchdown, from 55 yards out to 0TouchdownUC Davis: End of game, from 47 yards out to 14End of game

Box score

UC Davis 49, Eastern Washington 38

UC Davis covered −8.5 by 2.5. The total, 87, went over 61.5.

Eastern Washington leaders

  • Passing Nate Bell 39 of 58, 413 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Nate Bell 16 for 107 yds, 1 TD; Jaxon Bell 13 for 43 yds
  • Receiving Drew Carlson 6 for 95 yds, 1 TD; Wesley Garrett 7 for 79 yds

UC Davis leaders

  • Passing Treynor Cleeland 15 of 27, 278 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jordan Fisher 20 for 255 yds, 2 TD; Zach Jones 1 for 67 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Samuel Gbatu Jr. 6 for 92 yds, 1 TD; Zach Jones 2 for 60 yds, 2 TD

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Eastern Washington · 1-4

Rated 186th in our preseason ratings, 187th now.

Three straight losses.

L 27-31 vs Cal Poly #212 of 668

lost by 4 as a 3.5-point favorite

Eastern Washington lost 27-31 vs Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 67%, low under 1%, high 85%.

L 16-48 @ WashingtonTop 25 #30 of 668

lost by 32 as a 42.5-point underdog

Eastern Washington lost 16-48 at Washington. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 23-41 @ South Dakota #114 of 668

lost by 18 as a 15.5-point underdog

Eastern Washington lost 23-41 at South Dakota. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 16%.

Last three games

UC Davis · 3-2

Rated 116th in our preseason ratings, 133rd now.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 22-62 vs Montana #107 of 668

lost by 40 as a 3-point favorite

UC Davis lost 22-62 vs Montana. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 67%.

W 45-7 vs Stetson #259 of 668

won by 38 as a 47.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 45-7 vs Stetson. Chance to win started at better than 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%.

L 10-56 @ SMUTop 25 #12 of 668

lost by 46 as a 32.5-point underdog

UC Davis lost 10-56 at SMU. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 3%.

W 49-17 @ San Diego #151 of 668

won by 32 as a 14.5-point favorite

UC Davis won 49-17 at San Diego. Chance to win started at 81%, low 49%, high better than 99%.

W 31-24 @ Portland State #242 of 668

won by 7 as a 25.5-point favorite

Week by week

UC Davis

Wk 1: W 31-24 at Portland State▲7Portland…Wk 1: W 49-17 at San Diego▲32San DiegoWk 2: L 10-56 at SMU▼46SMUWk 3: W 45-7 vs Stetson▲38StetsonWk 4: L 22-62 vs Montana▼40Montana
  • Wk 1Wat Portland State31-24
  • Wk 1Wat San Diego49-17
  • Wk 2Lat SMU10-56
  • Wk 3Wvs Stetson45-7
  • Wk 4Lvs Montana22-62

Eastern Washington

Wk 1: L 27-34 at Northern Arizona▼7N. Arizo…Wk 1: W 34-24 vs Northern Iowa▲10N. IowaWk 2: L 23-41 at South Dakota▼18S. DakotaWk 3: L 16-48 at Washington▼32Washingt…Wk 4: L 27-31 vs Cal Poly▼4Cal Poly
  • Wk 1Lat Northern Arizona27-34
  • Wk 1Wvs Northern Iowa34-24
  • Wk 2Lat South Dakota23-41
  • Wk 3Lat Washington16-48
  • Wk 4Lvs Cal Poly27-31

Power rating by week

UC Davis is rated 3.6 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-2-6-9Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4UC DavisEastern Washington

The series

Eastern Washington leads the series 9-1

10 meetings since 2005 · UC Davis won the last meeting

UC Davis wonEastern Washington won2005: Eastern Washington by 172007: Eastern Washington by 102014: Eastern Washington by 232016: Eastern Washington by 332017: Eastern Washington by 32018: Eastern Washington by 392018: Eastern Washington by 52021: Eastern Washington by 182023: Eastern Washington by 32024: UC Davis by 1020052024
  • 2024UC Davis 48-38
  • 2023Eastern Washington 27-24
  • 2021Eastern Washington 38-20
  • 2018Eastern Washington 34-29
  • 2018Eastern Washington 59-20

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on UC Davis’s chances here.

50-50Model 79% · Line 75%Eastern WashingtonUC Davis

UC Davis favored by 8.5 · Total 61.5

How games like this usually go

UC Davis by 8.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Eastern Washington.

opened −9.5now −8.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 60.5now 61.5

Spread: −9.5 → −8.5 · Total: 60.5 → 61.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

UC Davis is worth +8.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.

67% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (2-1 home, 3-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 53 games — inside the ±8.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 654 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.