Cal Poly beats Eastern Washington 31-27
Team pages: Cal Poly · Eastern Washington
Cal Poly beat Eastern Washington 31-27. Share this game
We had Eastern Washington favored. Cal Poly won.
How it swung
The turning point: Grigsby 23-yd TD pass to McCoy, Cal Poly goes ahead 31-27 (Q4, 1:03). Cal Poly went from 33% to 69% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Cal Poly a 45% chance, and the closing betting line (Cal Poly was a 3.5-point underdog) put it at 39%.
Down to a 15% chance in the fourth quarter, Cal Poly still won.
Up to an 85% chance in the fourth quarter, Eastern Washington still lost.
Cal Poly 31-27 Eastern Washington
Cal Poly wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Eastern Washington 27-31 Cal PolyEastern Washington lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:12Grigsby 31-yd TD pass to Hall, Cal Poly goes ahead 7-0Cal Poly 40% → 59% (+19)
- 2Q4 1:03Grigsby 23-yd TD pass to McCoy, Cal Poly goes ahead 31-27Cal Poly 33% → 69% (+36)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q1 12:12Grigsby 31-yd TD pass to Hall, Cal Poly goes ahead 7-0Eastern Washington 60% → 41% (−19)
- 2Q4 1:03Grigsby 23-yd TD pass to McCoy, Cal Poly goes ahead 31-27Eastern Washington 67% → 31% (−36)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Eastern Washington -3.5), at 33% for Cal Poly (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Cal Poly scored on 5 of its 14 drives; Eastern Washington on 4 of its 15.
Cal Poly’s drives are teal, Eastern Washington’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Eastern Washington’s side
Eastern Washington’s best moment: Bell 9-yd pass to Carlson (Q4 0:31). It lifted Eastern Washington’s win chance by 18 points.
6 lead changes. The winner fell to 11%.
Box score
Cal Poly 31, Eastern Washington 27
Cal Poly covered +3.5 by 7.5. The total, 58, stayed under 58.5.
Cal Poly leaders
- Passing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 13 of 25, 163 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Jaden Green 28 for 269 yds, 2 TD; Trey Wilson 7 for 8 yds
- Receiving Tayvion McCoy 5 for 69 yds, 1 TD; Don-Ray Hall Jr. 3 for 47 yds, 1 TD
Eastern Washington leaders
- Passing Nate Bell 23 of 37, 253 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Kevin Allen III 15 for 49 yds, 1 TD; Jaxon Bell 7 for 29 yds
- Receiving Jamai East 4 for 65 yds, 1 TD; David Cabrera 2 for 56 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last 4 games
Cal Poly · 2-2
Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 210th now.
2-2 in its last 4, including a 4-point win over Idaho as a 5.5-point underdog.
W 24-17 vs Central Washington #268 of 668
Last 4 games
Eastern Washington · 1-3
Rated 186th in our preseason ratings, 168th now, up 18 spots.
1-3 in its last 4 — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
Week by week
Eastern Washington
- Wk 1Lat Northern Arizona27-34
- Wk 1Wvs Northern Iowa34-24
- Wk 2Lat South Dakota23-41
- Wk 3Lat Washington16-48
Cal Poly
- Wk 1Wvs Idaho38-34
- Wk 1Wvs Central Washington24-17
- Wk 2Lat San José State20-30
- Wk 3Lvs San Diego35-38
Power rating by week
Eastern Washington is rated 1.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Eastern Washington leads the series 9-2
11 meetings since 2004 · Cal Poly won the last meeting
- 2025Cal Poly 43-34
- 2023Eastern Washington 48-13
- 2022Eastern Washington 17-10
- 2019Eastern Washington 42-41
- 2018Eastern Washington 70-17
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Eastern Washington’s chances here.
Eastern Washington favored by 3.5 · Total 58.5
How games like this usually go
Eastern Washington by 3.5, on the usual path until 0:05 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 0.5 points toward Eastern Washington.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: −3 → −3.5 · Total: 59.5 → 58.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Eastern Washington has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.2 points (±5.3), home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.
0% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (0-2 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.3 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±7.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 857 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Eastern Washington9th0-1
- Cal Poly5th1-0