San Diego upsets Cal Poly 38-35
San Diego beat Cal Poly 38-35 as a 17.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 7%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 7% or less in about 1 of every 15 games since 2018.
We had Cal Poly favored. San Diego won.
Next: San Diego lost to St. Thomas (MN) 50-17, Sat Sep 26
How it swung
The turning point: Salazar 38-yd field goal, San Diego goes ahead 38-35 (Q4, 0:02). San Diego went from 43% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave San Diego a 33% chance, and the closing betting line (San Diego was a 17.5-point underdog) put it at 8%.
San Diego 38-35 Cal Poly
San Diego wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Cal Poly 35-38 San DiegoCal Poly lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 8:23Grigsby 10-yd TD pass to Pitts, ties it 35-35San Diego 50% → 29% (−21)
- 2Q4 3:52Mbakwe 1-yd runSan Diego 36% → 14% (−22)
- 3Q4 0:02Salazar 38-yd field goal, San Diego goes ahead 38-35San Diego 43% → 100% (+57)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 8:23Grigsby 10-yd TD pass to Pitts, ties it 35-35Cal Poly 50% → 71% (+21)
- 2Q4 3:52Mbakwe 1-yd runCal Poly 64% → 86% (+22)
- 3Q4 0:02Salazar 38-yd field goal, San Diego goes ahead 38-35Cal Poly 57% → 0% (−57)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Cal Poly -17.5), at 7% for San Diego (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
San Diego scored on 6 of its 12 drives; Cal Poly on 5 of its 9.
San Diego’s drives are teal, Cal Poly’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Cal Poly’s side
Cal Poly’s best moment: Grigsby 10-yd TD pass to Pitts, ties it 35-35 (Q4 8:23). It lifted Cal Poly’s win chance by 21 points.
The winner fell to 6%.
Box score
San Diego 38, Cal Poly 35
San Diego covered +17.5 by 20.5. The total, 73, went over 57.5.
San Diego leaders
- Passing Dom Nankil 25 of 30, 236 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Adam Criter 28 for 179 yds, 1 TD; Omar Mbakwe 13 for 41 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Cole Monach 8 for 87 yds, 2 TD; Elijah Taylor 6 for 47 yds
Cal Poly leaders
- Passing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 14 of 23, 211 yds, 3 TD
- Rushing Jaden Green 17 for 126 yds, 1 TD; Misa Paiau 3 for 40 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Tayvion McCoy 5 for 105 yds, 2 TD; Fidel Tau Pitts 6 for 90 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
San Diego · 0-2
Rated 142nd in our preseason ratings, 170th now.
Two straight losses, each by 20 or more.
L 17-59 @ Idaho State #137 of 668
lost by 42 as a 22.5-point underdog
Last three games
Cal Poly · 2-1
Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 215th now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 4-point win over Idaho as a 5.5-point underdog.
W 24-17 vs Central Washington #268 of 668
Week by week
Cal Poly
- Wk 1Wvs Idaho38-34
- Wk 1Wvs Central Washington24-17
- Wk 2Lat San José State20-30
San Diego
- Wk 1Lvs UC Davis17-49
- Wk 2Lat Idaho State17-59
Power rating by week
San Diego is rated 1.7 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Cal Poly leads the series 9-2
11 meetings since 2012 · Cal Poly won the last meeting
- 2025Cal Poly 41-17
- 2024San Diego 27-21
- 2023Cal Poly 27-10
- 2022Cal Poly 28-27
- 2021Cal Poly 28-17
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Cal Poly’s chances here.
Cal Poly favored by 17.5 · Total 57.5
How games like this usually go
Cal Poly by 17.5, on the usual path until Q2 7:55
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward San Diego.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −18.5 → −17.5 · Total: 56.5 → 57.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Cal Poly is worth +6.0 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.
33% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 46 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 265 miles to get here.