San Diego at Cal Poly
San Diego (0‑2) travels to Cal Poly (2‑1). No market line yet; the model gives Cal Poly a 69% shot.
How they got here
Last two games
San Diego · 0-2
Picked #142 in the preseason · now #172.
Two straight losses, each by 20 or more.
L 17–59 @ Idaho State #137 of 669
lost by 42 as a 22.5-point underdog
L 17–49 vs UC Davis #115 of 669
lost by 32 as a 14.5-point underdog
Last three games
Cal Poly · 2-1
Picked #199 in the preseason · now #221.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over Idaho as a 5.5-point underdog.
L 20–30 @ San José State #126 of 669
lost by 10 as a 21.5-point underdog
W 24–17 vs Central Washington #269 of 669
W 38–34 vs Idaho #162 of 669
won by 4 as a 5.5-point underdog
What’s at stake
San Diego
- San Diego is still shaking off a 42-point loss.
Cal Poly
- Cal Poly needs 5 more wins in the final 8 to reach bowl eligibility.
- Cal Poly football is a Central Coast program with real history — a 1980 NCAA Division II national championship, three straight Buck Buchanan Award winners (2004-2006, tied with Montana for the most in FCS history), and alumni in both the Pro Football Hall of Fame (John Madden, Bobby Beathard) — now trying to find its footing again. The Mustangs haven't posted a winning season since 2016 and enter 2026 under their third head coach since 2020, Tim Skipper, hired December 2025.
The series
Cal Poly leads the series 9-2
11 meetings since 2012 · Cal Poly won the last meeting
- 2025Cal Poly 41–17
- 2024San Diego 27–21
- 2023Cal Poly 27–10
- 2022Cal Poly 28–27
- 2021Cal Poly 28–17
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
San Diego
The chip · vs the national mediaFans here believe san Diego's chip is the disrespect of the non-scholarship narrative — the media that treats FCS as minor-league football and San Diego's success as a curiosity, not proof of concept. The program proved in 2016–2017 that non-scholarship teams can make FCS playoffs. The media still acts like that's surprising.
What this game touches
The six-year title drought (2020–2025). San Diego won 12 conference titles in 15 years, including three consecutive (2017–2019), then didn't win another from 2020 onward. The wound is not a collapse; it's the slow fade from auto-bid favorite to competitive-but-not-dominant.
Cal Poly
The chipThere isn't a rival Cal Poly measures itself against out of resentment so much as a quiet frustration with itself -- a program with a Hall of Fame coaching alumnus and a real (if small-division) national title in its history that hasn't found stability on the field in nearly a decade.
What this game touches
The Post-2016 Drought. Cal Poly's last winning season was 2016 (7-5, an FCS playoff berth). Since then the program has cycled through three head coaches in six years -- Beau Baldwin (4-21, 2020-2022), Paul Wulff (10-24, 2023-2025) -- without ever getting back to .500, let alone contending in the Big Sky.
Conditions
78°F · 6 mph wind
Cal Poly is worth +6.0 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 80th percentile.
33% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (1–2 home, 2–10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.8 at home vs. away over 40 games — inside the ±8.6 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 265 miles to get here.
Recent games
Cal Poly
- Wk 1Wvs Idaho38-34
- Wk 1Wvs Central Washington24-17
- Wk 2Lat San José State20-30
San Diego
- Wk 1Lvs UC Davis17-49
- Wk 2Lat Idaho State17-59