Cal Poly at San José State
Fan take
Cal Poly fans
San José State fans
How they got here
Last two games
Cal Poly · 2-0
Picked #199 in the preseason · now #232.
Two straight wins, capped by a 4-point win over Idaho as a 5.5-point underdog.
W 24–17 vs Central Washington #268 of 669
W 38–34 vs Idaho #148 of 669
won by 4 as a 5.5-point underdog
Last two games
San José State · 1-1
Picked #151 in the preseason · now #120 — better than expected.
1-1 in its last two, capped by a 6-point win over Eastern Michigan as a 1.5-point underdog.
W 27–21 @ Eastern Michigan #109 of 669
won by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 26–42 @ USCTop 25 #32 of 669
lost by 16 as a 37-point underdog
What’s at stake
Cal Poly
- Cal Poly needs 5 more wins in the final 9 to reach bowl eligibility — 2% to get there with a win here, 0% with a loss.
- A win would be one of Cal Poly’s biggest of the season — a 112-spot gap in the power ratings.
San José State
- San José State needs 4 more wins in the final 10 to reach bowl eligibility — 82% to get there with a win here, 63% with a loss.
- San José State is the Mountain West program whose 2020 7-1 + Mountain West championship under Brent Brennan + CEFCU Stadium identity define what Silicon-Valley-G5-football looks like.
The series
San José State leads the series 7-2
9 meetings since 1955 · San José State has won the last 5
- 2026San José State 30–20
- 2023San José State 59–3
- 2017San José State 34–13
- 2009San José State 19–9
- 2006San José State 17–7
Best players
San José State
- Caleb Womack (CB) · 25 tackles
- Dylan Lee (LB) · 24 tackles
- Naseri Danielson (LB) · 22 tackles
The line, and the room
The model and the market don’t fully agree on San José State’s chances here.
Home −21.5 · O/U 58.5
Conditions
70°F · 10 mph wind · Clear
San José State is worth +3.8 points (±3.5) more at home than on the road since 2018 — middle of FBS, 44th percentile.
60% at home, 30% on the road against FBS opponents (24–16 home, 13–31 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.5 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±6.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 155 miles to get here.
Cal Poly 20 – San José State 30
Called it — picked San José State to win.
Recent games
San José State
- Wk 1Lat USC26-42
- Wk 1Wat Eastern Michigan27-21
Cal Poly
- Wk 1Wvs Idaho38-34
- Wk 1Wvs Central Washington24-17
Trajectory
San José State won 30-20, as picked pregame.