San José State beats Cal Poly 30-20

Team pages: Cal Poly · San José State

Cal Poly2-120
San José State2-130Final
Sat, Sep 12 · CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, Calif. · Crowd 15,017MW+

San José State beat Cal Poly 30-20.

We had San José State favored. It won.

Next: Cal Poly lost to San Diego 38-35, Sat Sep 19

Next: San José State lost to Fresno State 26-10, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave San José State a 73% chance, and the closing betting line (San José State was a 21.5-point favorite) put it at 96%.

Favored the whole way: San José State never fell below 82%.

Cal Poly never had better than an 18% chance.

FinalSan José State 30-20 Cal PolySan José State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q494% at halfSan José StateWon30-20Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q494% at halfSan José StateWon30-20Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q46% at halfSan José StateLost20-30Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q46% at halfSan José StateLost20-30Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

San José State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (San José State -21.5), at 94% for San José State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

San José State scored on 6 of its 11 drives; Cal Poly on 3 of its 12.

San José State’s drives are teal, Cal Poly’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1San José State: Fumble, from 70 yards out to 68FumbleCal Poly: Interception, from 32 yards out to 15InterceptionSan José State: Punt, from 93 yards out to 69PuntCal Poly: Punt, from 72 yards out to 66PuntSan José State: Missed field goal, from 68 yards out to 25Missed FGCal Poly: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2San José State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntSan José State: Field goal, from 66 yards out to 27Field goalCal Poly: Punt, from 75 yards out to 68PuntSan José State: Field goal, from 72 yards out to 15Field goalCal Poly: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3Cal Poly: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownSan José State: Missed field goal, from 85 yards out to 24Missed FGCal Poly: Punt, from 76 yards out to 71PuntSan José State: Touchdown, from 49 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4San José State: Field goal, from 44 yards out to 23Field goalCal Poly: Interception, from 75 yards out to 30InterceptionSan José State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownCal Poly: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 37DownsSan José State: Punt, from 63 yards out to 51PuntCal Poly: End of game, from 87 yards out to 72End of game

Box score

San José State 30, Cal Poly 20

Cal Poly covered +21.5 by 11.5. The total, 50, stayed under 58.5.

Cal PolySan José StateTotal yardsCal Poly 340San José State 493340493Passing yardsCal Poly 249San José State 238249238Rushing yardsCal Poly 91San José State 25591255First downsCal Poly 20San José State 272027TurnoversCal Poly 2San José State 121Time of possessionCal Poly 28:58San José State 31:0228:5831:02
Team totalsCal PolySan José State
Total yards340493
Passing24 of 40, 249 yds22 of 34, 238 yds
Rushing29 for 91 yds44 for 255 yds
First downs2027
Third down7 of 143 of 12
Fourth down1 of 21 of 1
Turnovers21
Penalties1 for 10 yds5 for 55 yds
Time of possession28:5831:02

Cal Poly leaders

  • Passing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 24 of 40, 249 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Jaden Green 10 for 52 yds; Misa Paiau 8 for 37 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Fidel Tau Pitts 5 for 103 yds; Tayvion McCoy 7 for 65 yds

San José State leaders

  • Passing Luke Weaver 22 of 34, 238 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Jabari Bates 27 for 163 yds; Luke Weaver 10 for 44 yds
  • Receiving Carson Clark 8 for 81 yds, 2 TD; Cooper Hoch 7 for 77 yds, 1 TD

No rain through the game

75° at kickoff · no rain recorded

The usual here around this date is 76°, with about 7 in 10 games between 67° and 87°.

Game-day temperatures at CEFCU Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4San José State favoredCal Poly favored100%Win chanceSan José StateRaininches per 10 min0.1 inRain amounts not reported hereWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4San José State favoredCal Poly favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inRain amounts not reported hereWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:45 left6:06 p.m.
Cal Poly 0, San José State 0 · San José State 94% to win
72°
Bates 1-yd run
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at San Jose/reid/hillv airport, 2.7 miles away, and San Jose International A airport, 4.1 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Cal Poly · 2-0

Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 218th now.

Two straight wins, including a 4-point win over Idaho as a 5.5-point underdog.

W 24-17 vs Central Washington #268 of 668

Cal Poly won 24-17 vs Central Washington. Chance to win started at 64%, low 24%, high better than 99%.

W 38-34 vs Idaho #163 of 668

won by 4 as a 5.5-point underdog

Cal Poly won 38-34 vs Idaho. Chance to win started at 51%, low 10%, high better than 99%.

Last two games

San José State · 1-1

Rated 151st in our preseason ratings, 132nd now, up 19 spots.

1-1 in its last two, capped by a 6-point win over Eastern Michigan as a 1.5-point underdog.

W 27-21 @ Eastern Michigan #101 of 668

won by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog

San José State won 27-21 at Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 38%, low 17%, high 89%.

L 26-42 @ USCTop 25 #30 of 668

lost by 16 as a 37.5-point underdog

San José State lost 26-42 at USC. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

Week by week

San José State

Wk 1: L 26-42 at USC▼16USCWk 1: W 27-21 at Eastern Michigan▲6Eastern Michigan
  • Wk 1Lat USC26-42
  • Wk 1Wat Eastern Michigan27-21

Cal Poly

Wk 1: W 38-34 vs Idaho▲4IdahoWk 1: W 24-17 vs Central Washington▲7Central Washington
  • Wk 1Wvs Idaho38-34
  • Wk 1Wvs Central Washington24-17

The series

San José State leads the series 6-2

8 meetings since 1955 · San José State has won the last 4

San José State wonCal Poly won1955: San José State by 61956: San José State by 71957: Cal Poly by 71958: Cal Poly by 42006: San José State by 102009: San José State by 102017: San José State by 212023: San José State by 5619552023
  • 2023San José State 59-3San José State won 59-3 vs Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 95%, low 93%, high better than 99%.
  • 2017San José State 34-13
  • 2009San José State 19-9
  • 2006San José State 17-7
  • 1958Cal Poly 10-6

Each line is San José State’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on San José State’s chances here.

50-50Model · 73%Line · 96%Cal PolySan José State

San José State favored by 21.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

San José State by 21.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward San José State.

opened −20.5now −21.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 56.5now 58.5

Spread: −20.5 → −21.5 · Total: 56.5 → 58.5

The books’ cut: 3.8%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

San José State is worth +3.2 points (±3.4) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 33rd percentile.

57% at home, 33% on the road against FBS opponents (24-18 home, 15-31 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.9 at home vs. away over 94 games — inside the ±6.0 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 155 miles to get here.

Where next