San José State beats Eastern Michigan 27-21

San José State1-127
Eastern Michigan1-121Final
Fri, Sep 4 · Rynearson Stadium, Ypsilanti, Mich. · Crowd 5,646ESPN+

San José State beat Eastern Michigan 27-21.

We had Eastern Michigan favored. San José State won.

Top comment in the game thread

Joey Chestnut, the hero of SJSU!

Q2 6:05 · r/CFB game thread · Fri, Sep 4

How it swung

The turning point: Weaver sacked, fumbles; Llewellyn returns it for a TD, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 21-17 (Q3, 0:53). San José State went from 53% to 24% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave San José State a 27% chance, and the closing betting line (San José State was a 1.5-point underdog) put it at 45%.

A tight one: San José State bottomed out at 17% and won.

Up to 83% in the second quarter, then Eastern Michigan lost it.

TargetingQ3 0:45
FinalSan José State 27-21 Eastern MichiganSan José State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q453% at halfSan José StateLowest 17%Won27-211234−25+24−29+28ScoresTargetingSan José S…E. MichiganSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 2 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 1 comments a minuteSan José State fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 2 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteEastern Michigan fans: 1 comments a minute
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minute

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 11:524th and 1Blue 50-yd TD run, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 14-10San José State 52% → 27% (−25)
  2. 2Q3 6:08Weaver 10-yd TD pass to Hoch, San José State goes ahead 17-14San José State 32% → 56% (+24)
  3. 3Q3 0:53FumbleWeaver sacked, fumbles; Llewellyn returns it for a TD, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 21-17San José State 53% → 24% (−29)
  4. 4Q4 11:19Weaver 40-yd TD pass to Hoch, San José State goes ahead 24-21San José State 29% → 57% (+28)

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 11:524th and 1Blue 50-yd TD run, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 14-10Eastern Michigan 48% → 73% (+25)
  2. 2Q3 6:08Weaver 10-yd TD pass to Hoch, San José State goes ahead 17-14Eastern Michigan 68% → 44% (−24)
  3. 3Q3 0:53FumbleWeaver sacked, fumbles; Llewellyn returns it for a TD, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 21-17Eastern Michigan 47% → 76% (+29)
  4. 4Q4 11:19Weaver 40-yd TD pass to Hoch, San José State goes ahead 24-21Eastern Michigan 71% → 43% (−28)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 11:48Fans complain about loud ESPN studio audio during the broadcastWell hello sickosr/CFB game thread
  2. Q1 5:21Fans mock the broadcast's quad box and criticize the cowardly puntThat was last nightr/CFB game thread
  3. Q2 14:14Fans argue Kim to Prosper pass was a catch before review overturns itWait what? That still looks like a catch. I don’t see the ground move it at the endr/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 6:05Fans react to a delay of game penalty on a field goal attemptQuoted at the top of the page.
  5. Q2 1:35SJSU fans celebrate Weaver's touchdown pass to Nix tying the gameDespite our best efforts, we have tied the gamer/CFB game threadPretty crazy how quickly San Jose St. scored after how badly the 1st half had been goingr/CFB game thread
  6. Q2 1:25The field's unusual gray color caused confusion and comments.I'm glad you posted this. I sorta thought there was something wrong with my TV. It's a stunningly hideous color (the field, not my tv).r/CFB game thread
San José State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Eastern Michigan -1.5), at 38% for San José State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Eastern Michigan or San José State flair (69 and 75); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show San José State’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q2, 12:25Weaver intercepted by Dobbs at the EMU34Q2, 12:25 · San José State 0, Eastern Michigan 0▼2%San José State’s chance to win, 41% to 39%▼2%San José State’s chance to win, 41% to 39%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  2. Q2, 9:19Kim 5-yd TD pass to MackEastern Michigan goes ahead 7-0Q2, 9:19 · San José State 0, Eastern Michigan 7▼13%San José State’s chance to win, 36% to 23%▼13%San José State’s chance to win, 36% to 23%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  3. Q2, 1:19Weaver 27-yd TD pass to Nixties it 7-7Q2, 1:19 · San José State 7, Eastern Michigan 7▲15%San José State’s chance to win, 27% to 42%▲15%San José State’s chance to win, 27% to 42%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q3, 6:08Weaver 10-yd TD pass to HochSan José State goes ahead 17-14Q3, 6:08 · San José State 17, Eastern Michigan 14▲24%San José State’s chance to win, 32% to 56%▲24%San José State’s chance to win, 32% to 56%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  5. Q3, 0:53Weaver sacked, fumbles; Llewellyn returns it for a TDEastern Michigan goes ahead 21-17Q3, 0:53 · San José State 17, Eastern Michigan 21▼29%San José State’s chance to win, 53% to 24%▼29%San José State’s chance to win, 53% to 24%Watch from this playESPN College Football
  6. Q4, 11:19Weaver 40-yd TD pass to HochSan José State goes ahead 24-21Q4, 11:19 · San José State 24, Eastern Michigan 21▲28%San José State’s chance to win, 29% to 57%▲28%San José State’s chance to win, 29% to 57%Watch from this playESPN College Football

Every drive

San José State scored on 5 of its 16 drives; Eastern Michigan on 2 of its 14.

San José State’s drives are teal, Eastern Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1San José State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 67 yards out to 64PuntSan José State: Punt, from 63 yards out to 44PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 80 yards out to 39PuntSan José State: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 43DownsEastern Michigan: Turned over on downs, from 57 yards out to 38DownsQ2San José State: Interception, from 62 yards out to 58InterceptionEastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownSan José State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 41PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 92 yards out to 55PuntSan José State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 67PuntSan José State: Field goal, from 66 yards out to 29Field goalQ3Eastern Michigan: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownSan José State: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntSan José State: Punt, from 63 yards out to 65PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 76 yards out to 58PuntSan José State: Fumble returned for a touchdown, from 87 yards out to 99Fumble TDSan José State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntQ4Eastern Michigan: Punt, from 77 yards out to 73PuntSan José State: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownEastern Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntSan José State: Punt, from 76 yards out to 49PuntEastern Michigan: Punt, from 88 yards out to 86PuntSan José State: Punt, from 66 yards out to 57PuntEastern Michigan: Interception, from 84 yards out to 76InterceptionSan José State: Field goal, from 33 yards out to 38Field goalEastern Michigan: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 63DownsSan José State: End of game, from 37 yards out to 39End of game

From Eastern Michigan’s side

Eastern Michigan’s best moment: Weaver sacked, fumbles; Llewellyn returns it for a TD, Eastern Michigan goes ahead 21-17 (Q3 0:53). It lifted Eastern Michigan’s win chance by 29 points.

How Eastern Michigan fans took it: “Over the head again, awesome. GG San Jose, good luck on y’all’s seeing, hope yall go bowling!” r/CFB game thread

“I think SJSU is the better team. They need to hold on to this lead.”
A fan of another team

How fans reacted

Steady

The second quarter is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

FirstSecondThirdFourthSan José State fansEastern Michigan fansusual

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Man I *loathe* trying to get to the edge on 4th and short”
A fan of another team

5 lead changes. Too close to call on 53% of plays. The winner fell to 12%.

What it cost

San José State’s chance to win the conference rose from 2% to 3%.

Win the conference

San José State · won2% → ▲3%
Eastern Michigan · lost5% → ▼4%5%▼ 4%

Before the game (September 3, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

San José State 27, Eastern Michigan 21

San José State covered +1.5 by 7.5. The total, 48, stayed under 54.5.

San José StateEastern MichiganTotal yardsSan José State 453Eastern Michigan 281453281Passing yardsSan José State 316Eastern Michigan 174316174Rushing yardsSan José State 137Eastern Michigan 107137107First downsSan José State 19Eastern Michigan 131913TurnoversSan José State 2Eastern Michigan 121Time of possessionSan José State 29:52Eastern Michigan 30:0829:5230:08
Team totalsSan José StateEastern Michigan
Total yards453281
Passing23 of 41, 316 yds24 of 43, 174 yds
Rushing36 for 137 yds25 for 107 yds
First downs1913
Third down5 of 163 of 16
Fourth down1 of 21 of 4
Turnovers21
Penalties13 for 100 yds4 for 35 yds
Time of possession29:5230:08

San José State leaders

  • Passing Luke Weaver 23 of 39, 316 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jabari Bates 20 for 119 yds; Viliami Teu 4 for 10 yds
  • Receiving Cooper Hoch 5 for 115 yds, 2 TD; Carson Clark 5 for 58 yds

Eastern Michigan leaders

  • Passing Noah Kim 24 of 43, 174 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Amareon Blue 11 for 81 yds, 1 TD; Braydon Bennett 5 for 20 yds
  • Receiving Harold Mack 7 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Joshua Long 5 for 34 yds

No rain through the game

no rain recorded

September game-day temperatures at Rynearson Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Eastern Michigan favoredSan José State favored0%Win chanceEastern MichiganRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airport
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Eastern Michigan favoredSan José State favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airport

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Fourth quarter, 11:19 left9:20 p.m.
San José State 24, Eastern Michigan 21 · Eastern Michigan 43% to win
no rain
Weaver 40-yd TD pass to Hoch, San José State goes ahead 24-21

Jump to

Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Ann Arbor airport, 5.2 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

San José State · 3-9

Rated 151st in our preseason ratings, 151st now.

Three straight losses, each by 20 or more.

L 14-41 vs Fresno State #102 of 667

lost by 27 as a 3.5-point underdog

San José State lost 14-41 vs Fresno State. Chance to win started at 50%, low under 1%, high 53%.

L 3-25 @ San Diego State #66 of 667

lost by 22 as a 9.5-point underdog

San José State lost 3-25 at San Diego State. Chance to win started at 21%, low under 1%, high 22%.

L 10-55 @ Nevada #172 of 667

lost by 45 as a 9.5-point favorite

San José State lost 10-55 at Nevada. Chance to win started at 69%, low under 1%, high 75%.

L 16-26 vs Air Force #143 of 667

lost by 10 as a 6.5-point favorite

San José State lost 16-26 vs Air Force. Chance to win started at 76%, low under 1%, high 84%.

W 45-38 vs Hawai'i #132 of 667

won by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

San José State won 45-38 vs Hawai'i. Chance to win started at 63%, low 28%, high 99%.

L 25-30 @ Utah State #122 of 667

lost by 5 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 28-35 @ Wyoming #125 of 667

lost by 7 as a 1.5-point favorite

San José State lost 28-35 at Wyoming. Chance to win started at 44%, low under 1%, high 96%.

W 35-28 vs New Mexico #106 of 667

won by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

San José State won 35-28 vs New Mexico. Chance to win started at 67%, low 65%, high better than 99%.

L 29-30 @ Stanford #94 of 667

lost by 1 as a 3.5-point underdog

San José State lost 29-30 at Stanford. Chance to win started at 37%, low under 1%, high 89%.

W 31-28 vs Idaho #151 of 667

won by 3 as a 13.5-point favorite

San José State won 31-28 vs Idaho. Chance to win started at 86%, low 24%, high better than 99%.

L 7-38 @ TexasTop 25 #4 of 667

lost by 31 as a 36.5-point underdog

San José State lost 7-38 at Texas. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 14-16 vs Central Michigan #160 of 667

lost by 2 as a 14.5-point favorite

San José State lost 14-16 vs Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 86%, low under 1%, high 91%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Eastern Michigan · 4-8

Rated 92nd in our preseason ratings, 92nd now.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 21-31 vs Western Michigan #87 of 667

lost by 10 as a 9.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 21-31 vs Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 31%, low under 1%, high 65%.

W 24-9 @ Ball State #203 of 667

won by 15 as a 2.5-point favorite

Eastern Michigan won 24-9 at Ball State. Chance to win started at 48%, low 48%, high better than 99%.

W 27-21 vs Bowling Green #180 of 667

won by 6 as a 3.5-point favorite

Eastern Michigan won 27-21 vs Bowling Green. Chance to win started at 68%, low 38%, high better than 99%.

L 21-28 vs Ohio #71 of 667

lost by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 21-28 vs Ohio. Chance to win started at 23%, low 2%, high 60%.

L 30-44 @ Miami (OH) #89 of 667

lost by 14 as an 11.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 30-44 at Miami (OH). Chance to win started at 16%, low under 1%, high 21%.

W 16-10 vs Northern Illinois #139 of 667

won by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan won 16-10 vs Northern Illinois. Chance to win started at 55%, low 35%, high 98%.

L 30-31 @ Buffalo #121 of 667

lost by 1 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 13-24 @ Central Michigan #140 of 667

lost by 11 as a 3.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 13-24 at Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 26%.

W 34-31 vs Louisiana #99 of 667

won by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan won 34-31 vs Louisiana. Chance to win started at 53%, low 25%, high better than 99%.

L 23-48 @ Kentucky #39 of 667

lost by 25 as a 26.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 23-48 at Kentucky. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 3%.

L 23-28 vs Long Island University #173 of 667

lost by 5 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 27-52 @ Texas State #69 of 667

lost by 25 as a 13.5-point underdog

Eastern Michigan lost 27-52 at Texas State. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 11%.

Week by week

Eastern Michigan

  • Wk 1Wvs Sacramento State28-17

San José State

  • Wk 1Lat USC26-42

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Eastern Michigan’s explosive plays against San José State, 49 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Eastern Michigan’s explosive plays against San José State’s defense

    49 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Eastern Michigan offense, 26th percentile · San José State defense, 75th

  2. San José State’s passing EPA against Eastern Michigan’s defense

    41 pointsweakerstronger50th

    San José State offense, 55th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 14th

  3. San José State’s EPA/play against Eastern Michigan’s defense

    27 pointsweakerstronger50th

    San José State offense, 48th percentile · Eastern Michigan defense, 21st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

San José StateEastern Michigan
EPA/play, offense
San José State · 48Eastern Michigan · 21
EPA/play, defense
San José State · 45Eastern Michigan · 21
Success rate, offense
San José State · 34Eastern Michigan · 19
Success rate, defense
San José State · 26Eastern Michigan · 23
Explosive-play rate, offense
San José State · 29Eastern Michigan · 26
Explosive-play rate, defense
San José State · 75Eastern Michigan · 60
Rush EPA, offense
San José State · 42Eastern Michigan · 24
Rush EPA, defense
San José State · 23Eastern Michigan · 58
Pass EPA, offense
San José State · 55Eastern Michigan · 29
Pass EPA, defense
San José State · 65Eastern Michigan…

The series

Eastern Michigan leads the series 2-0

2 meetings since 1987 · Eastern Michigan has won the last 2

  • 2022 · neutral siteEastern Michigan 41-27Eastern Michigan won 41-27 vs San José State. Chance to win started at 29%, low 16%, high 99%.
  • 1987 · neutral siteEastern Michigan 30-27

Each line is Eastern Michigan’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Eastern Michigan fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (91st among FBS fanbases), in line with the numbers.

  • Model · 73%
  • Line · 55%
  • Eastern Michigan fans · 91st
  • San José State fans · 81st

Eastern Michigan favored by 1.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Eastern Michigan by 1.5: the game against the usual path

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 2 points toward San José State.

opened −3.5now −1.5

Spread: −3.5 → −1.5

The books’ cut: 4.7%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Eastern Michigan has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — −0.1 points (±3.4), home against road — 1st percentile of FBS.

49% at home, 44% on the road against FBS opponents (20-21 home, 22-28 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -7.4 at home vs. away over 99 games — outside the ±5.4 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 2,040 miles to get here.

Where next