Weber State beats Cal Poly 42-34 in 2 overtimes
Team pages: Weber State · Cal Poly
Weber State beat Cal Poly 42-34 in 2 overtimes after its win chance fell to 8%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 8% or less in about 1 of every 13 games since 2018.
How it swung
The turning point: Dahle 25-yd TD run, ties it 34-34 (OT). Weber State went from 13% to 55% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Weber State a 30% chance, and the closing betting line (Weber State was a 6-point underdog) put it at 31%.
Weber State 42-34 Cal Poly
Weber State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Cal Poly 34-42 Weber StateCal Poly lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The five plays that swung it
- 1Q3 1:104th and 1Ferguson 1-yd TD run, Weber State goes ahead 24-20Weber State 28% → 52% (+24)
- 2Q4 0:39Green run for a 4-yd lossWeber State 29% → 52% (+23)
- 3OTGreen 3-yd TD run, Cal Poly goes ahead 34-27Weber State 46% → 13% (−33)
- 4OTDahle 25-yd TD run, ties it 34-34Weber State 13% → 55% (+42)
- 52OTDahle 9-yd TD pass to Kjar, Weber State goes ahead 42-34Weber State 60% → 87% (+27)
The five plays that swung it
- 1Q3 1:104th and 1Ferguson 1-yd TD run, Weber State goes ahead 24-20Cal Poly 72% → 48% (−24)
- 2Q4 0:39Green run for a 4-yd lossCal Poly 71% → 48% (−23)
- 3OTGreen 3-yd TD run, Cal Poly goes ahead 34-27Cal Poly 54% → 87% (+33)
- 4OTDahle 25-yd TD run, ties it 34-34Cal Poly 87% → 45% (−42)
- 52OTDahle 9-yd TD pass to Kjar, Weber State goes ahead 42-34Cal Poly 40% → 13% (−27)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Cal Poly -6), at 26% for Weber State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Weber State scored on 7 of its 13 drives; Cal Poly on 6 of its 14.
Weber State’s drives are teal, Cal Poly’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Cal Poly’s side
Cal Poly’s best moment: Green 3-yd TD run, Cal Poly goes ahead 34-27 (OT). It lifted Cal Poly’s win chance by 33 points.
5 lead changes. The winner fell to 6%.
Box score
Weber State 42, Cal Poly 34
Weber State covered +6 by 14. The total, 76, went over 66.5.
Weber State leaders
- Passing Nate Dahle 15 of 33, 223 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Rushing Nate Dahle 15 for 85 yds, 1 TD; Seth Rigtrup 11 for 49 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Tate Kjar 5 for 89 yds, 2 TD; Noah Kjar 5 for 79 yds
Cal Poly leaders
- Passing Anthony Grigsby Jr. 17 of 27, 213 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Jaden Green 31 for 170 yds, 2 TD; Misa Paiau 14 for 61 yds
- Receiving Don-Ray Hall Jr. 4 for 86 yds; Tayvion McCoy 4 for 67 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Weber State · 2-3
Rated 238th in our preseason ratings, 231st now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 41-44 vs Portland State #251 of 668
lost by 3 as a 7-point favorite
W 49-20 vs Northwestern State #266 of 668
won by 29 as a 35.5-point favorite
L 42-47 @ Southern Utah #149 of 668
lost by 5 as a 14.5-point underdog
W 30-29 @ Northern Colorado #254 of 668
won by 1 as a 3-point underdog
Last three games
Cal Poly · 3-2
Rated 199th in our preseason ratings, 212th now.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 4-point win over Eastern Washington as a 3.5-point underdog.
W 24-17 vs Central Washington #268 of 668
Week by week
Cal Poly
- Wk 1Wvs Idaho38-34
- Wk 1Wvs Central Washington24-17
- Wk 2Lat San José State20-30
- Wk 3Lvs San Diego35-38
- Wk 4Wat Eastern Washington31-27
Weber State
- Wk 1Wat Northern Colorado30-29
- Wk 1Lat Southern Utah42-47
- Wk 2Lat Colorado21-52
- Wk 3Wvs Northwestern State49-20
- Wk 4Lvs Portland State41-44
Power rating by week
Cal Poly is rated 1.0 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Weber State leads the series 9-4
13 meetings since 2006 · Weber State has won the last 7
- 2024Weber State 28-17
- 2023Weber State 48-21
- 2021Weber State 38-7
- 2019Weber State 41-24
- 2018Weber State 24-17
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line agree on Cal Poly’s chances here.
Cal Poly favored by 6 · Total 66.5
How games like this usually go
Cal Poly by 6: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1.5 points toward Cal Poly.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: −4.5 → −6 · Total: 65.5 → 66.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Cal Poly is worth +6.0 points (±10.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 81st percentile.
33% at home, 17% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 2-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.8 at home vs. away over 46 games — inside the ±8.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 624 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Cal Poly2nd2-0
- Weber State11th1-2