Southern Utah · Next-Season Outcome Band
Fanbase Health Index · Southern Utah · medium confidence
FCS Program Prestige · Southern Utah2025 UAC Season
Southern Utah goes 7–5 (6–2 UAC) but misses FCS playoffs, illustrating the ceiling of the smaller conference
Wound
Southern Utah7-5Hope-Doping·Offseason
Southern Utah is the Thunderbirds that just returned to the Big Sky in 2026 after a 5-year exile in the WAC/UAC, a small Utah-proud program now re-anchored to the conference where it belongs.
Title DroughtSince 2015 · 10 yrs
Southern Utah carries no resentment — the fanbase is focused on re-establishing Big Sky belonging.
offseason · quiet
Approaching
24 days
until kickoff · at Montana · Sun Aug 30 · 01:00 UTC
The experience
Southern Utah is the Thunderbirds that just returned to the Big Sky in 2026 after a 5-year exile in the WAC/UAC, a small Utah-proud program now re-anchored to the conference where it belongs.
The Thunderbirds bide their time.
Southern Utah · Next-Season Outcome Band
Floor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 5-7
Base 7-5
Ceiling 10-2
floor5-7Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
base7-5Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
ceiling10-2Conference title + deep playoff run.
Variance assumed at ±2 wins from last-season record. Replace with the season-path projection once preview data is built.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Hot
Five straight. The momentum tier on every blog right now.
Streak W6Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 6-4
The forecast
Opens Aug 30
vs Montana · away
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
The Pulse on Southern Utah
—
The Thunderbirds bide their time.
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Go Southern Utah"
— Southern Utah fanbase · recurring line
5 mentions · awaiting signal
Fanbase Health Index · Southern Utah · medium confidence
Growing (53)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 7-5 (58% win rate)62
Volume — 5 effective signal-N44
Player stats — 2025 season
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Southern Utah · 2025 schedule & results7-5Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 52% · 0 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #155 | #235 | -4.5 | Idaho State | W 46–24 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| 2 | Sep 7 | #186 | #197 | -20.5 | @San Diego | L 27–30 | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| 3 | Sep 14 | #163 | #146 | +3.5 | Northern Arizona | L 49–52 | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| 4 | Sep 21 | #156 | #118 | +6.5 | @UC Davis | L 34–50 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| 5 | Sep 28 | #161 | #170 | +1 | West Georgia | L 24–27 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #167 | #90 | +20.5 | @Tarleton State | L 42–52 | 1-5 | 1-2 |
| 8 | Oct 19 | #166 | #131 | +3 | Abilene Christian | W 31–24 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| 9 | Oct 26 | #158 | #219 | -9.5 | @Utah Tech | W 28–7 | 3-5 | 2-2 |
| 10 | Nov 2 | #152 | #112 | +1.5 | Austin Peay | W 33–17 | 4-5 | 2-2 |
| 11 | Nov 8 | #139 | #176 | -6.5 | @Eastern Kentucky | W 27–17 | 5-5 | 2-2 |
| 12 | Nov 16 | #132 | #192 | -12.5 | Central Arkansas | W 28–21 | 6-5 | 2-2 |
| 13 | Nov 22 | #132 | #233 | -18 | @North Alabama | W 36–34 | 7-5 | 2-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22 | @North Alabama | W 36–34 | — | — | — | +0.180 | 46.4% | 123.2% | One-score win |
| Nov 16 | Central Arkansas | W 28–21 | — | — | — | +0.231 | 50.6% | 110.7% | One-score win |
| Nov 8 | @Eastern Kentucky | W 27–17 | — | — | — | +0.436 | 49.3% | 144.3% | |
| Nov 2 | Austin Peay | W 33–17 | — | — | — | +0.128 | 46.8% | 110.4% | |
| Oct 26 | @Utah Tech | W 28–7 | — | — | — | +0.311 | 51.7% | 111.4% | |
| Oct 19 | Abilene Christian | W 31–24 | — | — | — | +0.115 | 40.0% | 122.6% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 4 | @Tarleton State | L 42–52 | — | — | — | +0.600 | 50.0% | 181.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 28 | West Georgia | L 24–27 | — | — | — | +0.136 | 41.1% | 125.5% | One-score loss |
| Sep 21 | @UC Davis | L 34–50 | — | — | — | +0.323 | 49.4% | 138.8% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 7 | @San Diego | L 27–30 | — | — | — | +0.281 | 47.5% | 137.4% | One-score loss |
| Aug 31 | Idaho State | W 46–24 | — | — | — | +0.386 | 58.1% | 113.5% | Best success rate |
| Season average (11 games) | — | — | +0.284 | 48.3% | 129.0% | ||||
Schedule mirage
How much of Southern Utah's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.28; 85th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 1: 0.39 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Home-Field Advantage · Southern Utah · 2018-present
Elite
48% home win rate vs 28% on the road. margin runs +15.1 better at home. Eccles Coliseum seats 10,000, averaging 37% full (3,713 attendance, 10 games reported).
Home17-18Away13-32
Venue texture
67°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 10 mph average wind.
Based on 25 home games with weather data.
FCS Program Prestige · Southern Utah
Mid-Major Contender
All-Time Record
95-141
since 1996 · 28 seasons · .402 win rate
HOME
57-40
AWAY
35-89
NEUTRAL
3-12
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
Big Sky Standing · 2025
8th in the Big Sky
Southern Utah is 8th of 13 in the Big Sky at 2-2. The path to the title is steep — the focus is on playoff positioning and rivalry wins.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana State | 9-0 |
| 2 | UC Davis | 7-2 |
| 3 | Montana | 6-2 |
| 4 | Northern Arizona | 6-4 |
| 5 | Idaho State | 5-4 |
| 6 | Eastern Washington | 4-3 |
| 7 | Idaho | 3-5 |
| 8 | Southern Utah | 2-2 |
| 9 | Northern Colorado | 2-5 |
| 10 | Weber State | 2-5 |
| 11 | Cal Poly | 1-6 |
| 12 | Portland State | 1-6 |
| 13 | Utah Tech | 0-4 |
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
Moment of the Year · Southern Utah · 2025
Moment of the Year · Southern Utah · 2025Won 46-24 vs Idaho State
Week 1 of 2025. A statement margin. Recruiting boards re-rendered overnight.
FCS → NFL Pipeline
2022–2022
FCS → NFL PipelineDeveloping
1 picks last 5 cycles. The pipeline is real but still building volume.
1
picks · last 5 yrs
#168
Braxton Jones
Offensive Tackle · 2022 · Chicago
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