Southern Utah at Idaho
Southern Utah (3‑4) travels to Idaho (2‑5), with Idaho favored by 3.5.
How they got here
Last three games
Southern Utah · 3-4
Rated 144th in our preseason ratings, 156th now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 21-point win over UC Davis as a 4.5-point underdog.
W 46-33 @ Utah Tech No. 256 of 668 teams
won by 13 as a 10.5-point favorite
L 24-28 vs Idaho State No. 132 of 668 teams
lost by 4 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 26-28 @ St. Thomas (MN) No. 194 of 668 teams
lost by 2 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 47-42 vs Weber State No. 241 of 668 teams
won by 5 as a 14.5-point favorite
Last three games
Idaho · 2-5
Rated 171st in our preseason ratings, 163rd now.
2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Montana as a 16.5-point underdog.
What’s at stake
Southern Utah
- Southern Utah is 2 games back in Big Sky with 3 left to make it up.
- Southern Utah is coming off a 21-point win.
Idaho
- Idaho is 3 games back in Big Sky with 4 left to make it up.
- Idaho football is a program that once commanded the I-AA postseason, fell behind its in-state rival, could not sustain FBS economics, and now rebuilds in the Big Sky with one advantage: deep institutional memory and a city that believes in them.
The series
Idaho leads the series 2-0
2 meetings since 2018 · Idaho has won the last 2
- 2021Idaho 42-24
- 2018Idaho 31-12
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Southern Utah
The chipSouthern Utah carries no resentment — the fanbase is focused on re-establishing Big Sky belonging.
What this game touches
The UAC years and the unfulfilled FCS playoff expectation. Southern Utah went 7–5 in 2025 (6–2 UAC) but missed the FCS playoffs despite a winning record, a painful lesson that conference affiliation matters. The Thunderbirds are now returning to the Big Sky (2026), hoping the migration restores playoff eligibility and Big Sky identity.
Idaho
The chipBoise State rose to national relevance while Idaho fell. The Broncos won every Governor's Trophy matchup since 2001 (12 straight) after Idaho owned them 1982–1993. When the rivalry resumes in 2031, Idaho will be FCS and Boise State will be Mountain West — but the scoreboard will tell the real story. Gainesville remembers.
What to watch
The total has moved up 3.0 points since opening (62.5 → 65.5): books now expect more combined points.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Idaho’s chances here.
Idaho favored by 3.5 · Total 65.5
Idaho by 3.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Idaho’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 378 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
Home field
Idaho is worth +6.8 points (±13.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 90th percentile.
50% at home, 12% on the road against FBS opponents (1-1 home, 2-15 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.7 at home vs. away over 58 games — inside the ±7.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Indoors — dome hosts have beaten the number by about a point and a half more than outdoor ones, on a small sample. The visitors travel about 657 miles to get here.
Week by week
Idaho
- Wk 2Lvs Lamar17-23
- Wk 3Lvs Abilene Christian39-41
- Wk 5Wvs Montana State35-34
- Wk 6Lat Weber State27-38
- Wk 7Wat Montana42-35
Southern Utah
- Wk 2Lat Colorado State24-58
- Wk 3Lat St. Thomas (MN)26-28
- Wk 4Lvs Idaho State24-28
- Wk 5Wat Utah Tech46-33
- Wk 7Wvs UC Davis38-17
Power rating by week
Southern Utah is rated 0.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total rose 3 points.
Total: 62.5 → 65.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Idaho9th2-2
- Southern Utah5th3-2