Southern Utah beats UC Davis 38-17
Team pages: UC Davis · Southern Utah
Southern Utah beat UC Davis 38-17. Share this game
We had UC Davis favored. Southern Utah won.
Next: UC Davis vs Northern Colorado, Sat Oct 24 · 7:00 PM ET
Next: Southern Utah at Idaho, Sat Oct 24 · 5:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: Burns 1-yd TD pass to Acord, two-point try good, ties it 17-17 (Q3, 4:47). Southern Utah went from 25% to 47% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Southern Utah a 47% chance, and the closing betting line (Southern Utah was a 4.5-point underdog) put it at 36%.
Southern Utah won by 21, after dipping to 17% in the second quarter.
Up to 83% in the second quarter, then UC Davis lost it.
Southern Utah · Q3 1:33Southern Utah 38-17 UC Davis
Southern Utah wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.UC Davis 17-38 Southern UtahUC Davis lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 4:474th and 1Burns 1-yd TD pass to Acord, two-point try good, ties it 17-17Southern Utah 25% → 47% (+22)
- 2Q3 1:33Burns 6-yd TD pass to Acord, Southern Utah goes ahead 24-17Southern Utah 54% → 73% (+19)
The two plays that swung it
- 1Q3 4:474th and 1Burns 1-yd TD pass to Acord, two-point try good, ties it 17-17UC Davis 75% → 53% (−22)
- 2Q3 1:33Burns 6-yd TD pass to Acord, Southern Utah goes ahead 24-17UC Davis 46% → 27% (−19)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (UC Davis -4.5), at 48% for Southern Utah (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Southern Utah scored on 6 of its 11 drives; UC Davis on 3 of its 12.
Southern Utah’s drives are teal, UC Davis’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From UC Davis’s side
UC Davis’s best moment: Kucifer 53-yd field goal no good (Q1 10:44). It lifted UC Davis’s win chance by 11 points.
Box score
Southern Utah 38, UC Davis 17
Southern Utah covered +4.5 by 25.5. The total, 55, stayed under 65.5.
UC Davis leaders
- Passing Treynor Cleeland 20 of 37, 248 yds, 2 INT
- Rushing Jordan Fisher 20 for 180 yds, 1 TD; Treynor Cleeland 13 for 20 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Marquis Bradley 5 for 75 yds; Jordan Fisher 4 for 71 yds
Southern Utah leaders
- Passing Will Burns 13 of 20, 126 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Floyd Chalk IV 26 for 212 yds, 1 TD; Will Burns 11 for 98 yds, 2 TD
- Receiving Joshua Acord 5 for 67 yds, 2 TD; David Spjut 3 for 21 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
UC Davis · 4-2
Rated 116th in our preseason ratings, 151st now.
2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 31-24 @ Portland State #242 of 668
won by 7 as a 25.5-point favorite
Last three games
Southern Utah · 2-4
Rated 144th in our preseason ratings, 174th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 46-33 @ Utah Tech #256 of 668
won by 13 as a 10.5-point favorite
L 24-28 vs Idaho State #132 of 668
lost by 4 as a 9.5-point underdog
L 26-28 @ St. Thomas (MN) #194 of 668
lost by 2 as a 12.5-point favorite
W 47-42 vs Weber State #241 of 668
won by 5 as a 14.5-point favorite
Week by week
Southern Utah
- Wk 1Wvs Weber State47-42
- Wk 2Lat Colorado State24-58
- Wk 3Lat St. Thomas (MN)26-28
- Wk 4Lvs Idaho State24-28
- Wk 5Wat Utah Tech46-33
UC Davis
- Wk 1Wat San Diego49-17
- Wk 2Lat SMU10-56
- Wk 3Wvs Stetson45-7
- Wk 4Lvs Montana22-62
- Wk 5Wvs Eastern Washington49-38
Power rating by week
UC Davis is rated 1.5 points ahead as of week 6. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
The series is tied 7-7
14 meetings since 2004 · UC Davis has won the last 4
- 2025UC Davis 50-34
- 2024UC Davis 24-21
- 2023UC Davis 23-21
- 2019UC Davis 33-25
- 2017Southern Utah 47-27
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Southern Utah’s chances here.
UC Davis favored by 4.5 · Total 65.5
How games like this usually go
UC Davis by 4.5, on the usual path until Q3 1:33
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Southern Utah.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +5.5 → +4.5 · Total: 64.5 → 65.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Southern Utah is worth +23.2 points more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.
100% at home, 15% on the road against FBS opponents (1-0 home, 2-11 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +6.2 at home vs. away over 51 games — inside the ±7.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. 5,787 ft of altitude — real, and smaller than the folklore: high venues run a point or two better against the number, noisily. The visitors travel about 476 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Place in the conference, then conference record.
- Southern Utah7th2-2
- UC Davis6th2-1