Northern Colorado at UC Davis
Northern Colorado (3‑5) at UC Davis (4‑3) — UC Davis is favored by 9.5. The model gives UC Davis a 64% shot.
How they got here
Last three games
Northern Colorado · 3-5
Rated 255th in our preseason ratings, 227th now, up 28 spots.
1-2 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Cal Poly as a 3-point underdog.
W 37-13 vs Utah Tech No. 253 of 668 teams
won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite
W 23-17 vs Northeastern State No. 270 of 668 teams
L 23-38 vs South Dakota No. 125 of 668 teams
lost by 15 as a 20.5-point underdog
L 29-30 vs Weber State No. 241 of 668 teams
lost by 1 as a 3-point favorite
Last three games
UC Davis · 4-3
Rated 116th in our preseason ratings, 171st now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
W 31-24 @ Portland State No. 242 of 668 teams
won by 7 as a 25.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Northern Colorado
- Northern Colorado is 3 games back in Big Sky with 3 left to make it up.
- A win would be one of Northern Colorado’s biggest of the season — a 56-spot gap in the power ratings.
UC Davis
- UC Davis is 3 games back in Big Sky with 4 left to make it up.
- UC Davis is still shaking off a 21-point loss.
The series
UC Davis leads the series 11-3
14 meetings since 2003 · UC Davis has won the last 6
- 2025UC Davis 27-16
- 2024UC Davis 59-7
- 2022UC Davis 58-10
- 2021UC Davis 32-3
- 2018UC Davis 49-36
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Northern Colorado
The chipNorthern Colorado carries no resentment — the fanbase has made peace with the Div II era being a separate, cherished chapter.
What this game touches
Division II success that evaporated in the transition to FCS. Northern Colorado won back-to-back NCAA Division II national championships in 1996 and 1997 under coach Joe Glenn. Upon transition to I-AA in 1998, the Bears entered a tier they couldn't sustain. For 28 years, they have been the lower-tier Big Sky team (39–146 FCS record), a cautionary tale of mismatched reclassification.
UC Davis
The chipUC Davis fans believe the Big Sky is a legitimate FCS home — not a stepping stone — and that the program's Sochor legacy and recent playoff runs prove the FCS is where this program thrives. They say Sacramento State's departure is about market ambition, not UC Davis's inadequacy. They won the field. That's enough.
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on UC Davis’s chances here.
UC Davis favored by 9.5 · Total 58.5
UC Davis by 9.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
UC Davis’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 388 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
Home field
UC Davis is worth +8.3 points (±9.1) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 98th percentile.
67% at home, 23% on the road against FBS opponents (2-1 home, 3-10 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.6 at home vs. away over 53 games — inside the ±8.4 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 917 miles to get here.
Week by week
UC Davis
- Wk 2Lat SMU10-56
- Wk 3Wvs Stetson45-7
- Wk 4Lvs Montana22-62
- Wk 5Wvs Eastern Washington49-38
- Wk 7Lat Southern Utah17-38
Northern Colorado
- Wk 3Wvs Northeastern State23-17
- Wk 4Wvs Utah Tech37-13
- Wk 5Lat Montana14-36
- Wk 6Lat Eastern Washington22-31
- Wk 7Wvs Cal Poly28-18
Power rating by week
UC Davis is rated 3.3 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- UC Davis8th2-2
- Northern Colorado10th2-3