Montana beats Northern Colorado 36-14

Team pages: Northern Colorado · Montana

Northern Colorado2-414
Montana5-136Final
Sat, Oct 3 · Washington-Grizzly Stadium, Missoula, Mont. · Crowd 27,131ESPN+

Montana beat Northern Colorado 36-14.

Next: Northern Colorado lost to Eastern Washington 31-22, Sat Oct 10

Next: Montana lost to Northern Arizona 49-44, Sat Oct 10

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Montana a 94% chance, and the closing betting line (Montana was a 21.5-point favorite) put it at 96%.

Favored the whole way: Montana never fell below 94%.

Northern Colorado never had better than a 5% chance.

FinalMontana 36-14 Northern ColoradoMontana wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4MontanaWon36-14Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4MontanaWon36-14Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4MontanaLowest 0%Lost14-36Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4MontanaLowest 0%Lost14-36Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Montana’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Montana -21.5), at 95% for Montana (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Montana scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Northern Colorado on 2 of its 11.

Montana’s drives are teal, Northern Colorado’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Montana: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Colorado: Interception, from 75 yards out to 74InterceptionMontana: Turned over on downs, from 45 yards out to 10DownsNorthern Colorado: Punt, from 90 yards out to 77PuntMontana: Fumble, from 58 yards out to 17FumbleNorthern Colorado: Missed field goal, from 83 yards out to 20Missed FGQ2Montana: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Colorado: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 30DownsMontana: Punt, from 70 yards out to 41PuntNorthern Colorado: Punt, from 80 yards out to 84PuntMontana: End of half, from 56 yards out to 20End of halfQ3Northern Colorado: Punt, from 75 yards out to 63PuntMontana: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Colorado: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntMontana: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownNorthern Colorado: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Northern Colorado: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntMontana: Punt, from 90 yards out to 82PuntNorthern Colorado: Touchdown, from 63 yards out to 0TouchdownMontana: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntNorthern Colorado: Uncategorized, from 92 yards out to 85Uncategorized

Box score

Montana 36, Northern Colorado 14

Montana covered −21.5 by 0.5. The total, 50, stayed under 58.5.

Northern Colorado leaders

  • Passing Brayten Silbor 18 of 30, 194 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Kenny Lueth 6 for 58 yds, 2 TD; Justin Guin 15 for 51 yds
  • Receiving Trey Olsen 3 for 54 yds; Marcus Mozer 4 for 40 yds

Montana leaders

  • Passing Keali'i Ah Yat 23 of 30, 346 yds, 5 TD
  • Rushing Eli Gillman 13 for 99 yds; Monte Gillman 3 for 49 yds
  • Receiving Brooks Davis 9 for 205 yds, 3 TD; Landon Ransom-Goelz 4 for 32 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Northern Colorado · 2-3

Rated 255th in our preseason ratings, 244th now, up 11 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 37-13 vs Utah Tech #253 of 668

won by 24 as a 7.5-point favorite

W 23-17 vs Northeastern State #270 of 668

Northern Colorado won 23-17 vs Northeastern State. Chance to win started at 58%, low 1%, high better than 99%.

L 13-21 @ Wyoming #129 of 668

lost by 8 as a 23.5-point underdog

Northern Colorado lost 13-21 at Wyoming. Chance to win started at 5%, low under 1%, high 55%.

L 23-38 vs South Dakota #125 of 668

lost by 15 as a 20.5-point underdog

Northern Colorado lost 23-38 vs South Dakota. Chance to win started at 12%, low under 1%, high 28%.

L 29-30 vs Weber State #241 of 668

lost by 1 as a 3-point favorite

Northern Colorado lost 29-30 vs Weber State. Chance to win started at 54%, low 10%, high 75%.

Last three games

Montana · 4-1

Rated 93rd in our preseason ratings, 107th now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 40-point win over UC Davis as a 3-point underdog.

W 62-22 @ UC Davis #133 of 668

won by 40 as a 3-point underdog

Montana won 62-22 at UC Davis. Chance to win started at 35%, low 33%, high better than 99%.

L 17-52 @ Oregon State #64 of 668

lost by 35 as a 17.5-point underdog

Montana lost 17-52 at Oregon State. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 9%.

W 35-14 vs Utah Tech #241 of 668

won by 21 as a 35.5-point favorite

Montana won 35-14 vs Utah Tech. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 45-10 vs Drake #192 of 668

won by 35 as a 35.5-point favorite

Montana won 45-10 vs Drake. Chance to win started at 99%, low 98%, high better than 99%.

W 28-21 vs Southern Utah #149 of 668

won by 7 as a 15.5-point favorite

Montana won 28-21 vs Southern Utah. Chance to win started at 88%, low 61%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Montana

Wk 1: W 28-21 vs Southern Utah▲7S. UtahWk 1: W 45-10 vs Drake▲35DrakeWk 2: W 35-14 vs Utah Tech▲21Utah TechWk 3: L 17-52 at Oregon State▼35Oregon S…Wk 4: W 62-22 at UC Davis▲40UC Davis
  • Wk 1Wvs Southern Utah28-21
  • Wk 1Wvs Drake45-10
  • Wk 2Wvs Utah Tech35-14
  • Wk 3Lat Oregon State17-52
  • Wk 4Wat UC Davis62-22

Northern Colorado

Wk 1: L 29-30 vs Weber State▼1Weber St.Wk 1: L 23-38 vs South Dakota▼15S. DakotaWk 2: L 13-21 at Wyoming▼8WyomingWk 3: W 23-17 vs Northeastern State▲6Northeas…Wk 4: W 37-13 vs Utah Tech▲24Utah Tech
  • Wk 1Lvs Weber State29-30
  • Wk 1Lvs South Dakota23-38
  • Wk 2Lat Wyoming13-21
  • Wk 3Wvs Northeastern State23-17
  • Wk 4Wvs Utah Tech37-13

Power rating by week

Montana is rated 8.3 points ahead as of week 4. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-1-7-14Wk 0Wk 2Wk 4MontanaNorthern Colorado

The series

Montana leads the series 12-1

13 meetings since 2004 · Montana has won the last 4

Montana wonNorthern Colorado won2004: Montana by 112006: Montana by 322007: Montana by 452008: Montana by 212009: Montana by 282010: Montana by 232011: Montana by 272014: Montana by 252016: Northern Colorado by 32017: Montana by 302021: Montana by 352023: Montana by 402024: Montana by 2420042024
  • 2024Montana 24-0
  • 2023Montana 40-0
  • 2021Montana 35-0
  • 2017Montana 44-14
  • 2016Northern Colorado 28-25

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Montana’s chances here.

50-50Model 94% · Line 96%Northern ColoradoMontana

Montana favored by 21.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Montana by 21.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 5 points toward Northern Colorado.

opened −26.5now −21.5

The total rose 1 point.

opened 57.5now 58.5

Spread: −26.5 → −21.5 · Total: 57.5 → 58.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Montana is worth +13.2 points (±7.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile.

83% at home, 25% on the road against FBS opponents (5-1 home, 2-6 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +2.4 at home vs. away over 60 games — inside the ±8.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 643 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.