4identity shift
Oregon State's fanbase identity is shifting
Trent Bray's second season opens with a 2-10 losing record, underscoring the challenge of rebuilding a program that must avoid Pac-12 collapse while navigating a transitional schedule.
Oregon State2-10Latest
The read on Oregon State depends entirely on who you ask.
belief cooled ↓ 8.4vs prior week
Fanbase belief
Mixed
52/100 · 149 mentions
~ our readGrounding
backed by facts
12% cite a stat · 7% typical ✓ counted
~ our readVolatility
Chaotic
σ 29 pts
~ our readThe model
#111
CFB Zeitgeist · -4.3
✓ measured4Hope-Doping·Offseason
Oregon State is the program the Pac-12 left behind — ten schools sprinted for the exits and the Beavers were handed the keys to the wreckage, then went 2-10 trying to rebuild a league from two.
Title DroughtSince 2008 · 17 yrs
Oregon walked into the Big Ten and left the Civil War behind without a backward glance. The fanbase in Corvallis hasn't forgotten which neighbor abandoned the rivalry — or that the Beavers stayed when…
offseason · quiet
Roster Reload - Oregon State
2026 snapshot - 2026-08-06Returning Production52%Moderate continuity
Talent Composite#60 nationally247 composite 668.0
Portal Additions20Primary repair: LB
Portal Losses35Primary pressure: WR
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#100Depth class
WRin 3 - Aeryn Hamptonout 8 - Taz ReddicksStarter Risk
current room: 193 lbs avg (2025 roster)
OTin 3 - Kwan Johnsonout 5 - Jacob StrandStarter Risk
DLin 2 - Daniel Matagiout 4 - Kelze HowardStarter Risk
current room: 286 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 0out 5 - Shamar MeikleStarter Risk
QBin 2 - Braden Atkinsonout 3 - Gabarri JohnsonDowngrade
current room: 215 lbs avg (2025 roster)
TEin 2 - DeCorion Templeout 2 - Riley WilliamsEven
current room: 251 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Belief EKG
WinLoss · hover for scorePrior seasons
Approaching
30 days
until kickoff · at Houston · Sat Sep 5 · 16:00 UTC
The experience
Oregon State is the Pac-12-collapse survivor — Reser Stadium, 2024 transitional independent schedule, and Jonathan Smith / Trent Bray rebuild that proved a P5 program can refuse to disappear.
Offense: PoorTempo: Methodical, ball-controlDefense: Soft
Oregon State faces a challenging 2026 season with high volatility and moderate continuity
The team's roster features significant transfer losses, particularly in WR and LB, while recruiting ranks remain at #100. With a base projection of 7-6 and a ceiling of 9-4, the team's performance will depend heavily on incoming transfers.
- Roster reloadOregon State has a net portal exporter profile with 20 transfers in and 35 out, leading to a reload score of "Moderate continuity" and a volatility score of 1.1.
- RecruitingRecruiting ranks are at #100 with a score of 176.78, indicating a depth class reload strategy.
- ScheduleThe team's base season projection is 7-6 with a bowl game, while the ceiling is 9-4 and the floor is 4-8 with no postseason.
Data as of 2026-08-03
·
Validated against program evidence
Benny Beaver is at work.
Oregon State · the story right now
10 storylines developing
What Oregon State's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
short yardagethis cycle✓ factnew
Anthony Hankerson converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate, and he also gets a real share of the team's goal-line carries.
narrative tension · our read
underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
David Wells Jr. produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
narrative tension · our read
market_swing2026-06-25~readnew
Trent Bray's second season opens with a 2-10 losing record and a 4.5-win total projection — the program's survival hinges on whether this talent-ranked #60 roster can avoid another collapse.
what happenedOregon State win total rose from 4 to 4.5 (+0.5 wins) between Jun 24 and Jun 25, 2026 (tier C). ✓ fact
the contextwin total up 0.5 from 4.0 to 4.5
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
Cornell Hatcher Jr. sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
narrative tension · our read
garbage timethis cycle~attributednew
David Wells Jr.: a garbage time merchant signal screened this season.
narrative tension · our read
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Oregon State dropped 29 spots in SP+ — the steepest decline in the Pac-12, and Trent Bray's second season opens with a 2-10 record to overcome.
what happenedOregon State enters 2025 rated No. 126 in SP+ (-15.9), down 29 spots from 2024. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
coachingthis cycle✓ factnew
JaMarcus Shephard took over as Oregon State's head coach, replacing Trent Bray.
the contextthe program's third head coach in five seasons
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
Oregon State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
narrative tension · our read
coordinatorsthis cycle✓ factnew
Oregon State: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
narrative tension · our read
identitythis cycle~readnew
Trent Bray's second season opens with a 2-10 losing record, underscoring the challenge of rebuilding a program that must avoid Pac-12 collapse while navigating a transitional schedule.
what happenedOregon State: the fanbase's identity shifting. ✓ fact
narrative tension · our read
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredOregon State's head-coaching hire held for another season.
ReplacedOregon State's defensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
Died downOregon State's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
The story
The Offseason Ledger · Oregon State
6 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- Portal
OT Broderick Shull transfer commits from Auburn
SEC tackle drops to PNW — Beavers' line was the offseason's biggest open question.
- Recruiting
Benjamin Harris commits to Oregon State
Harris is OSU's highest-ranked 2027 commit yet, and a program sitting at #99 nationally needs ATH upside like his to climb — the WR room pressure just got some future relief.
- Recruiting
Amir Reese commits to Oregon State
WR depth was already a pressure point for a class sitting 64th nationally — Reese is Bray adding bodies to a room that can't afford to stay thin while the program claws back 29 spots in the power ratings.
- News
Heyward disputes unpaid buyout
Heyward's unpaid buyout dispute is the kind of administrative mess Trent Bray doesn't need while rebuilding staff trust in a reformed Pac-12 that's already watching Oregon run the room.
- Recruiting
Texas DT commits to Oregon State
Texas DT flipping to Corvallis nudges the win total a half-game — Bray's rebuilding class sits 64th nationally, but adding interior pressure answers the one structural gap the depth chart couldn't paper over.
- Recruiting
3-star RB commits to OSU
Class sits at #64 nationally and the WR room is where the real pressure lives — a 3-star RB in a depth class is Trent Bray filling the backfield shelf while the bigger roster questions stay unresolved.
Transfer portal snapshot
-7.7 net portal points
(raw ledger: -48.8 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-20.7
starter risk
EDGE-14.9
starter risk
S-7.0
starter risk
OT-6.7
starter risk
DL-5.4
starter risk
LS+5.0
QB-4.5
IOL-3.5
LB+3.5
K+3.0
low confidence
TE+2.4
RB-0.1
CB+0.0
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Cynai Thomas
#704 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Jameson Powell
#774 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 16 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Jeremiah Brown
#1030 national
Profiles like a typical incoming linebacker — 14 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Linebacker archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
44th percentile among FBS programs
Fan vs. market↑
44th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
4.5
Vegas O/U wins
(11th among FBS)
(11th among FBS)
Fans 33pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total3 booksO/U 4.5▲0.5 since Jun 2026
CFP championship#98 in field+100000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-08-06
Oregon State · Next-Season Outcome Band
Oregon State · Next-Season Outcome BandFloor / Base / Ceiling
Floor 4-8
Base 7-6
Ceiling 9-4
floor4-8No postseason.
base7-6Bowl game.
ceiling9-4Bowl game.
Final-season-aware projection: floor / base / ceiling include conference title and CFP games where the model supports them, so a ceiling can exceed a 12-game regular season.
How the room reacted
Following now · Oregon State · Market Confidence
The market bumped Oregon State up a win. Win totals move for reasons; the books don't give interviews.
Oregon State win total rose from 4 to 4.5 (+0.5 wins) between Jun 24 and Jun 25, 2026 (tier C). It is win total up 0.5 from 4.0 to 4.5. The market moved; the fan base is split on what it means. Oddsmakers react to information, not sentiment — but that doesn't mean they're right. The room is divided — bulls and bears both have game-specific cases.
the room is genuinely split
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers2 bull takes
💬 fans: 13% volume · negative overall
The saga so far~4 months old
Jun 25Win total: 4 → 4.5 (▲0.5)
Apr 5OT Broderick Shull transfer commits from Auburn — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Trent Bray's second season opens with a 2-10 losing record and a 4.5-win total projection — the program's survival hinges on whether this talent-ranked #60 roster can avoid another collapse.
Next · what to watch
Win total moves are the sharpest signal the market sends in the offseason. They don't reflect fan enthusiasm — they reflect information: roster losses, schedule difficulty, injury reports, and coaching staff changes that haven't hit the beat press yet. One-win adjustments are deliberate, not rounding. Watch whether the line moves again — markets don't stop at one adjustment when the signal changes. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: Oregon State win total rose from 4 to 4.5 (+0.5 wins) between Jun 24 and Jun 25, 2026 (tier C) — win total up 0.5 from 4.0 to 4.5.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish/market items -- the case it's working.›
The 'market knows something fans don't' read -- when odds move, it's on information.
“JaMarcus Shephard is building Oregon State football on concept from a bestselling book”
OregonLive.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Oregon State Beavers fall camp position breakdown: Specialists”
OregonLive.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Oregon State opens fall camp with newcomers, big weight gains and losses”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Oregon State quarterbacks taking smarter risks” — the real counter.›
The 'markets overcorrect' counter -- lines move on noise too; the receipts may not hold.
“Oregon State quarterbacks taking smarter risks”
KMTR · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
💬The boards13% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (57%).›
This event was in 58 of 444 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"How is the hiking/ backpacking at Oregon State? Are there good trails and mountains close to the school? Thanks in advance."
r/OregonStateUniv ~ fan take
"Hi everyone! I’m planning to pursue Oregon State’s online B.S. in Civil Engineering through Ecampus while continuing to work full-time. I recently learned about OSU’s Degree Partne"
r/OregonStateUniv ~ fan take
Board health this week (154 posts): 14% positive · 59% neutral · 27% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Oregon State · Season outlook Confidence
Oregon State's numbers fell sharply. The model sees a program under real pressure.
Oregon State enters 2025 rated No. 126 in SP+ (-15.9), down 29 spots from 2024. SP+ reflects three years of tape; a drop this steep is structural, not noise. The recovery window is open but the room knows it. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
the room is genuinely split
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers2 bull takes
💬 fans: 13% volume · negative overall
The saga so far~4 months old
Jun 25Win total: 4 → 4.5 (▲0.5)
Apr 5OT Broderick Shull transfer commits from Auburn — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Oregon State dropped 29 spots in SP+ — the steepest decline in the Pac-12, and Trent Bray's second season opens with a 2-10 record to overcome.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious consequence of a steep fall isn't one bad year — it's the recruiting and portal feedback loop. A 'they're down' narrative accelerates the attrition that drove the decline. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Oregon State enters 2025 rated No. 126 in SP+ (-15.9), down 29 spots from 2024.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“JaMarcus Shephard is building Oregon State football on concept from a bestselling book”
OregonLive.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Oregon State Beavers fall camp position breakdown: Specialists”
OregonLive.com · 2026-08-05 · read ↗
“Oregon State opens fall camp with newcomers, big weight gains and losses”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Oregon State quarterbacks taking smarter risks” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Oregon State quarterbacks taking smarter risks”
KMTR · 2026-08-06 · read ↗
💬The boards13% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: negative overall · anger notable (57%).›
This event was in 59 of 444 board posts (13%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"How is the hiking/ backpacking at Oregon State? Are there good trails and mountains close to the school? Thanks in advance."
r/OregonStateUniv ~ fan take
"Hi everyone! I’m planning to pursue Oregon State’s online B.S. in Civil Engineering through Ecampus while continuing to work full-time. I recently learned about OSU’s Degree Partne"
r/OregonStateUniv ~ fan take
Board health this week (154 posts): 14% positive · 59% neutral · 27% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Recent Form · last 10 games
Cooling
Two of five. Schedule has caught up.
Streak L3Last 5 · 2-3Last 10 · 2-8
The forecast
Opens Sep 5
vs Houston · away
Season line4.5 winsover +115
PoorMethodical, ball-controlSoft
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Rival pulse
Oregon
Hopeful+7
Oregon-Oregon State
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
20
CA · 10LA · 2AL · 1FL · 1HI · 1MD · 1MN · 1MS · 1+2 more
CA leads the 2026 class with 10 commits. National footprint reaching 10 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
84 signees across 19 states, 2023-2026. CA leads the pull.
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] Appalachian State Defeats Oregon State 27-23
[Postgame Thread] Oregon State Defeats Lafayette 45-13
[Game Thread] Lafayette @ Oregon State (10:00 PM ET)
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
National spotlight
11 games with TV coverage: 2 national broadcast, 2 ESPN, 1 conference network, 6 streaming
Kickoff windows: 1 noon, 5 afternoon, 5 primetime
Fumble luck
Recovering 17% of the fumbles they've forced — running cold vs. the ~49% league rate.
2 of 12 forced fumbles recovered; 7 of 14 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2025 only.
Takeaway conversion
Converting 15% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~19% league rate.
8 interceptions of 55 disrupted passes (47 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2025 only.
Penalty battle
Winning the penalty battle: 71 penalties committed vs. 92 drawn on opponents, a 173-yard edge.
599 penalty yards committed vs. 772 drawn on opponents, 2025 season total.
The Pulse on Oregon State
52
Δ -8.4 vs last wk
149
mentions this week · conversation velocity
What moved it — fall camp · last 14 days
Camp
Fall camp open — install + scrimmage cycle
ongoing
Kickoff
Season opener in 16 days
kickoff
"Corvallis"
— Oregon State fanbase · recurring line
Fanbase Signals
Cohort Divergence1 pctSpread between sub-fanbase cohorts in the Pulse window.
The Fever Year
Position = mood · width = volume · color = the kind of feeling
Inside the fanbase — all 9 corners
Cr/CFB
GGoogle News
CCampus paper
BBluesky
YYouTube
One voice
+0.00whole-room sentiment · even our read
Every cohort from the die-hards to the analytics crowd lands within 0.05 of each other — a rare consensus. The loudest voice in the room:
GGoogle NewsBeat · article
Oregon State opens fall camp with newcomers, big weight gains and losses - Yahoo Sports
news.google.com →How Oregon State fans actually talk real · top-upvoted
The crowd’s loudest take by upvotes — read for mood, not as a side. The cohort read is the measured part.
The room, end to end
skeptical
buying in
Casuals+0.03
Bettors−0.02
Cohort sentiment is a source-weighted model read — never a quote pinned to a person.
What this fanbase keeps coming back to our read · topic model
Topics are model-labeled from Reddit — a rough signal of what this fanbase is circling right now.
363 mentions · 5 sources · week 2026-01. Counts, sources and the divergence rank are measured (fact). Cohort labels and sentiment are a source-weighted model read (our read) — never a quote attributed to a person.
Belief checkevidence-driven
~ our readOregon State fans are down on the program, and they're pointing to real stats and results to back it up — more than most fanbases right now.
backed by facts
the mood
✓ counted We read 154 posts from Oregon State fans this week.
Season storylines
Week 8
“Can't believe Dan Lanning hasn't been playing his best QB all season. Really makes you question his decision making.”— r/CFB
Week 6
“We have Lafayette next weekend, which ESPN gives us a 95% chance of winning. I’m calling it a toss up though”— r/CFB
Week 2
“He should’ve been able to stat pad the past 2 games and he’s looked uninspiring to say the least”— r/CFB
Week 7
“We genuinely were the worse team in the first half, then benched Murphy and the entire team started playing like they haven't all season. Having a QB with an actual threat to run/scramble completely changed the tune of the offense and the defense played lights out. Seeing actu…”— r/CFB
Week 1
“Oregon State and college football as a whole, just find new ways to make me depressed”— r/CFB
Five Lenses
What people are saying right now
Radio, beat writers & editorial3 posts
News & campus coverage13 posts
CFB analyst takes2 posts
Bluesky · @oregoniansports.bsky.social
19h ago
Rent free · r/cfb fan posts, last season
Oregon State lives rent-free in
share of each rival fanbase’s football posts that bring up Oregon State
Fanbase Health Index · Oregon State · high confidence
Fanbase Health Index · Oregon State · high confidenceGrowing (53)
DecliningStableGrowingSurging
On-Field — 2-10 (17% win rate)34
Volume — 942 effective signal-N89
Cohort Engagement — Divergence 0.01 — quiet35
The Lexicon
294 posts and articles vs the field · 2025 season
murphy
×193.1 the field
Signature — ≥10× the rest of college football
murphy×193.1n=16
Characteristic — 3–10×
touchdown×6.2n=22
special×6.8n=18
pac×12.9n=10
coaching staff×6.9n=12
staff×4.3n=13
commits×3.3n=14
coaching×3.3n=12
fumble×3.5n=10
Mild — <3×
nil×2.5n=11
“Can we pay Murphy $1M to play somewhere else? OSU gave him an NIL bag and he’s total ass”
reddit/CFB · fan post, verbatim
Fanbase Voice
1,113 fan mentions
Doomers
vs the 81 highest-volume fanbases - 2025 season
Key stats — 2025 — FBS rank
Points/game#124 / 138 · 11th pct18.2
Pts allowed/game#93 / 138 · 33rd pct29.4
Total yards/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct352.7
Rush yards/gm#109 / 136 · 21st pct127.2
Pass yards/gm#78 / 136 · 43rd pct225.4
Yards allowed/gm#55 / 136 · 60th pct380.3
Rush yds allowed/gm#72 / 136 · 48th pct158.9
Sacks#118 / 136 · 14th pct16
Interceptions#84 / 136 · 39th pct8
3rd-down conv#102 / 136 · 26th pct35.9%
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team4232352.7/gm5.05/play#105 / 136 · 24th pct#54 / 70 · 24th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct
Opp4564380.3/gm6.05/play#55 / 136 · 60th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Rush yards
Team1527127.2/gm1.82/play#109 / 136 · 21st pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp1907158.9/gm2.53/play#72 / 136 · 48th pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Rush carries
Team40733.9/gm#101 / 136 · 26th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp40733.9/gm#16 / 136 · 89th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Rush TDs
Team151.2/gm#97 / 136 · 29th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp171.4/gm#50 / 136 · 64th pct#33 / 70 · 54th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Net pass yards
Team2705225.4/gm3.23/play#78 / 136 · 43rd pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp2657221.4/gm3.52/play#48 / 136 · 65th pct#26 / 70 · 64th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Pass attempts
Team43135.9/gm#38 / 136 · 73rd pct#20 / 70 · 73rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp34728.9/gm#28 / 136 · 80th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Completions
Team26021.7/gm#52 / 136 · 62nd pct#29 / 70 · 60th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp19716.4/gm#12 / 136 · 92nd pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Pass TDs
Team141.2/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp221.8/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Passer rating
Team120.1120.1#117 / 136 · 15th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp134.5134.5#74 / 136 · 46th pct#41 / 70 · 43rd pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team131.1/gm#18 / 136 · 88th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Opp80.7/gm#44 / 136 · 68th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Sacks (def)
Team161.3/gm#118 / 136 · 14th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#6 / 10 · 50th pct
Opp262.2/gm#81 / 136 · 41st pct#42 / 70 · 41st pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#8 / 10 · 30th pct
Tackles for loss
Team635.2/gm#89 / 136 · 35th pct#48 / 70 · 33rd pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
Opp605.0/gm#37 / 136 · 74th pct#21 / 70 · 71st pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#5 / 10 · 60th pct
First downs
Team24520.4/gm#88 / 136 · 36th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp22718.9/gm#25 / 136 · 82nd pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
3rd-down conv
Team615.1/gm#100 / 136 · 27th pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp504.2/gm#4 / 136 · 98th pct#3 / 70 · 97th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
3rd-down att
Team17014.2/gm#79 / 136 · 43rd pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp15312.8/gm#13 / 136 · 91st pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
4th-down conv
Team80.7/gm#116 / 136 · 15th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp80.7/gm#6 / 136 · 96th pct#4 / 70 · 96th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
4th-down att
Team201.7/gm#101 / 136 · 26th pct#51 / 70 · 29th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp181.5/gm#14 / 136 · 90th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Time of possession
Team382:2831:52/gm#66 / 136 · 52nd pct#34 / 70 · 53rd pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp337:3128:08/gm#5 / 136 · 97th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Kicking & Punting
Field goals#135 / 135 · 1st pct6/14 (42.9%)
Extra points20/20
Punting#68 / 136 · 51st pct43.4 avg · 67 punts
Turnovers & special teams
Turnovers
Team201.7/gm#28 / 136 · 80th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Opp100.8/gm#15 / 136 · 90th pct#8 / 70 · 90th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Fumbles lost
Team70.6/gm#51 / 136 · 63rd pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Opp20.2/gm#2 / 136 · 99th pct#2 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
INT return TDs
Team00.0/gm#76 / 135 · 44th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp10.1/gm#61 / 136 · 56th pct#30 / 70 · 59th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#3 / 11 · 82nd pct
INT return yards
Team13110.9/gm#60 / 136 · 57th pct#32 / 70 · 56th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Opp16914.1/gm#101 / 136 · 26th pct#52 / 70 · 27th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Punt ret yds
Team806.7/gm#103 / 136 · 25th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Opp59449.5/gm#136 / 136 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Punt ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#43 / 135 · 69th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#6 / 11 · 55th pct
Opp20.2/gm#128 / 135 · 6th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#9 / 9 · 11th pct
Kick ret yds
Team47339.4/gm#58 / 136 · 58th pct#23 / 70 · 69th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp69257.7/gm#121 / 136 · 12th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Kick ret TDs
Team00.0/gm#40 / 136 · 71st pct#17 / 70 · 77th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#4 / 9 · 67th pct
Opp10.1/gm#97 / 135 · 29th pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#8 / 9 · 22nd pct
Penalty yards
Team59949.9/gm#99 / 136 · 28th pct#45 / 70 · 37th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Opp77264.3/gm#105 / 136 · 24th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Other
Kick returns#28 / 136 · 80th pct#7 / 70 · 91st pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct272.2/gm
H2 epa per play opponent#30 / 143 · 80th pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct0.10.0/gm
Fourth down go rate#40 / 138 · 72nd pct#18 / 70 · 76th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct0.40.0/gm
Red zone pass rate#64 / 154 · 59th pct#29 / 70 · 60th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct0.40.0/gm
Recruiting rating#64 / 138 · 54th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct188.915.7/gm
Fumbles rec (def)#71 / 136 · 49th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct70.6/gm
First down pass rate#78 / 215 · 64th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct0.50.0/gm
Interceptions (def)#84 / 136 · 39th pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct80.7/gm
Penalties#88 / 136 · 36th pct#40 / 70 · 44th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct715.9/gm
H1 epa per play opponent#108 / 167 · 36th pct#56 / 70 · 21st pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct0.20.0/gm
Kick ret (opp)#109 / 136 · 21st pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct292.4/gm
Passes intercepted opponent#109 / 136 · 21st pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct131.1/gm
Punt returns#113 / 136 · 18th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#9 / 12 · 33rd pct100.8/gm
Penalties (opp)#116 / 136 · 15th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct927.7/gm
H2 epa per play#134 / 142 · 6th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct0.00.0
Fumbles recovered#135 / 136 · 1st pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct10.1/gm
Punt ret (opp)#136 / 136 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct352.9/gm
H1 epa per play#138 / 162 · 15th pct#69 / 70 · 3rd pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct0.00.0
Situational
3rd-down conversion
Off35.9%#102 / 136 · 26th pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Def32.7%#16 / 136 · 89th pct#10 / 70 · 87th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
4th-down conversion
Off40.0%#122 / 136 · 11th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Def44.4%#28 / 136 · 80th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct#3 / 12 · 83rd pct
Turnover margin#123 / 136 · 10th pct#65 / 70 · 9th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct-0.83/gm
Sack rate (def)#114 / 136 · 17th pct#62 / 70 · 13th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#4 / 10 · 70th pct4.6%
Red Zone & Drive Efficiency (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Red zone trips
Team413.4/gm#80 / 167 · 53rd pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp383.2/gm#73 / 166 · 57th pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Red zone score %
Team68.3%68.3%#135 / 167 · 20th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Opp84.2%84.2%#124 / 166 · 26th pct#57 / 70 · 20th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#8 / 12 · 42nd pct
Points / drive
Team1.50.1/gm#121 / 167 · 28th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Opp2.10.2/gm#107 / 166 · 36th pct#59 / 70 · 17th pct#6 / 8 · 38th pct#4 / 12 · 75th pct
Yards / drive
Team38.63.2/gm#101 / 167 · 40th pct#60 / 70 · 16th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#7 / 12 · 50th pct
Opp36.93.1/gm#37 / 166 · 78th pct#22 / 70 · 70th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Plays / drive
Team6.50.5/gm#87 / 167 · 48th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Opp6.00.5/gm#17 / 166 · 90th pct#6 / 70 · 93rd pct#1 / 8 · 100th pct#1 / 12 · 100th pct
Three-and-out rate
Team17.8%17.8%#127 / 167 · 25th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Opp16.8%16.8%#33 / 166 · 81st pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Scheme Identity (2014– , play-by-play derived)
Rush rate over expected#103 / 145 · 30th pct#49 / 70 · 31st pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct-3.6%-3.6%
Havoc rate
Team17.3%17.3%#41 / 140 · 71st pct#27 / 70 · 63rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Opp16.4%16.4%#92 / 140 · 35th pct#46 / 70 · 36th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct
Standard-downs success
Team48.5%48.5%#69 / 154 · 56th pct#39 / 70 · 46th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct
Opp43.2%43.2%#22 / 172 · 88th pct#15 / 70 · 80th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Passing-downs success
Team27.5%27.5%#112 / 153 · 27th pct#61 / 70 · 14th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct
Opp31.5%31.5%#89 / 149 · 41st pct#44 / 70 · 39th pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct
Line yards / carry
Team2.82.8#94 / 143 · 35th pct#47 / 70 · 34th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct
Opp2.62.6#27 / 155 · 83rd pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Stuff rate
Team15.5%15.5%#25 / 143 · 83rd pct#13 / 70 · 83rd pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Opp22.0%22.0%#25 / 155 · 85th pct#14 / 70 · 81st pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Power success rate
Team76.3%76.3%#32 / 137 · 77th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#3 / 8 · 75th pct
Opp64.0%64.0%#37 / 141 · 74th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#2 / 8 · 88th pct
Efficiency
Completion %
Off60.3%#88 / 136 · 36th pct#55 / 70 · 23rd pct#5 / 8 · 50th pct#5 / 12 · 67th pct
Def56.8%#21 / 136 · 85th pct#9 / 70 · 89th pct#4 / 8 · 62nd pct#2 / 12 · 92nd pct
Yards / attempt
Off6.3#120 / 136 · 12th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#10 / 12 · 25th pct
Def7.7#106 / 136 · 23rd pct#58 / 70 · 19th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#6 / 12 · 58th pct
Yards / completion
Off10.4#120 / 136 · 12th pct#64 / 70 · 10th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct
Def13.5#129 / 136 · 6th pct#67 / 70 · 6th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#11 / 12 · 17th pct
Yards / carry#107 / 136 · 22nd pct#53 / 70 · 26th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct3.8
Yards / play#116 / 136 · 15th pct#63 / 70 · 11th pct#8 / 8 · 12th pct#12 / 12 · 8th pct5.05
Scoring margin#122 / 136 · 11th pct#66 / 70 · 7th pct#7 / 8 · 25th pct#8 / 11 · 36th pct-11.2/gm
FBS rankings · 2025 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats — 2025 season
Quarterbacks
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.20 EPA/play | 6 | 10 | 160 / 276 | 58.0 | 1802 | 6.5 | 9 | 8 | 117.8 | 40.2 | 5.3 | 3.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.0 bottom 32th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-2.5 bottom 4th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Maalik Murphy's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Pocket Passer · -0.02 EPA/play | 5 | 10 | 62 / 100 | 62 | 501 | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | 104.7 | 22.2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket PasserBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 97 of 183 QBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / attempt4.8 bottom 2th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry3.5 74th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gabarri Johnson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| -0.10 EPA/play | 10 | 3 | 37 / 53 | 69.8 | 385 | 7.3 | 3 | 2 | 142.0 | 73.5 | 4.8 | 11.7 | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||||
Running Backs
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Stuff% | 10+% | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.03 EPA/play | — | 12 | 247 | 1088 #27 FBS | 4.4 | 9 #65 FBS | 65 | 21.1 | 19.3 | 14.3 | 12.0 | 9.7% (36/371) | |
Yards by week → Balanced Back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 186 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry4.7 bottom 30th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception5.6 bottom 27th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Anthony Hankerson's full player page | |||||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.22 EPA/play | 21 | 9 | 52 | 292 | 5.6 | 2 | 42 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 13.7 | 15.7 | — | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 48 of 349 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.5 87th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception3.4 bottom 10th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cornell Hatcher Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||||
Receivers
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | 3rd Dn Use | Pass Dn Use | Tgt Share | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.47 EPA/play | 7 | 11 | 68 | 823 #61 FBS | 12.1 | 2 | 43 | 14.1 | 15.4 | 25.1% (93/371) | |
Yards by week → Slot TechnicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 97 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume68 96th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate2.9% bottom 18th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like our readUnranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.18 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 44 | 466 | 10.6 | 4 | 56 | 11.9 | 13 | 18.9% (70/371) | |
Yards by week → Possession Receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine The most common profile in its group this season — 332 of 558 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · sophomore View David Wells Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.22 EPA/play | 3 | 10 | 30 | 391 | 13.0 | 0 | 37 | 13.4 | 10 | 13.2% (49/371) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception14.7 63th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tastean Reddicks's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.25 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 29 | 219 | 7.6 | 1 | 30 | 8.3 | 9 | 9.7% (36/371) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 8 of 21 games this season · senior View Bryce Caufield's full player page | |||||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.25 EPA/play | 82 | 7 | 17 | 185 | 10.9 | 1 | 26 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 7.0% (26/371) | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 177 of 223 classified this way. Played in 7 of 21 games this season · senior View Gabe Milbourn's full player page | |||||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.48 EPA/play | 14 | 6 | 12 | 139 | 11.6 | 1 | 30 | 1.1 | 5.6 | 4.6% (17/371) | |
Yards by week → Possession ReceiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 332 of 558 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception13.8 56th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume12 bottom 11th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Eddie Freauff's full player page | |||||||||||
| -0.09 EPA/play | 12 | 7 | 10 | 83 | 8.3 | 0 | 19 | 2.6 | 3.3 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
| +1.49 EPA/play | 9 | 1 | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — | |
Yards by week → | |||||||||||
Defensive Line
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 98 | 12 | 30 | 11 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 6 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.0% 51th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like our readAscending: his CFB Index score moved from the 25th to 58th percentile among FBS IDLs | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 95 | 10 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% bottom 41th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tygee Hill's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 9 | 18 | 10 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 8 |
3-Tech PenetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 269 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate36.1% 99th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jojo Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 62 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Two-Gap BaseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 388 of 809 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.3% bottom 49th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jacob Schuster's full player page | |||||||
| 59 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 15 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | |
Linebackers
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 2 | 11 | 72 | 35 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. The most common profile in its group this season — 362 of 660 classified this way. Played in 11 of 21 games this season · junior · 3-star, 2024 class View Aiden Sullivan's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 7 | 52 | 14 | 38 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Part-time starter — splitting the role or filling in on injury. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume52 52th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dexter Foster's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 44 | 12 | 38 | 13 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.2% 70th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Takari Hickle's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 25 | 11 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 5.5 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate18.3% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate10.0% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nikko Taylor's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 47 | 9 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume29 bottom 22th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tyree Blake's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 13 | 9 | 28 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume28 bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate21.4% 96th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 45th percentile among FBS LBs, up from the 0th | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 14 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 18 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 362 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume25 bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kord Shaw's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 18 | 7 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.8% 63th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume17 bottom 12th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kai Wallin's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 88 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 97 of 660 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint View Andy Alfieri's full player page | |||||||||
| 10 | 7 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 9 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 32 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 50 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Defensive Backs
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 17 | 12 | 78 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Box SafetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — above-average production for the conference. 166 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume78 96th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Skyler Thomas's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 12 | 67 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — over 60% of the snaps, holding the job. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.0% bottom 39th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like our readBreakout: his CFB Index score now sits at the 79th percentile among FBS Ss, up from the 17th | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 12 | 31 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 419 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.1% 86th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Sailasa Vadrawale's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | — | 11 | 28 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate14.3% 80th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kobe Singleton's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 12 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 12 of 21 games this season · senior View Mason White's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 22 | 10 | 25 | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jalil Tucker's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 19 | 11 | 23 | 5 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 133 of 801 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate21.7% 97th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Trey Glasper's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 26 | 6 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid NickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 419 of 801 classified this way. Played in 6 of 21 games this season · sophomore · 3-star, 2023 class View Harlem Howard's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 12 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Kicking
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 28 | 10 | 6/13 | 46.2 | 19/19 | 37 | 53 |
| 37 | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 1/1 | 1 | 0 |
Punting
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 38 | 12 | 62 | 2774 | 44.7 | 66 | 13 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Kick Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.18 EPA/play | 1 | 11 | 11 | 215 | 19.5 | 0 | 28 |
| 15 | 3 | 9 | 182 | 20.2 | 0 | 32 |
Punt Returns
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.47 EPA/play | 7 | 11 | 10 | 80 | 8 | 0 | 27 |
2025 stat leaders
final
2025 stat leaders
1.
Skyler Thomas
DB
78.0 tot (def)
2.
Anthony Hankerson
RB
1,088 yds (rush)
3.
Aiden Sullivan
LB
72.0 tot (def)
4.
Trent Walker
WR
823 yds (rec)
5.
Jaheim Patterson
DB
67.0 tot (def)
Roster
2025
23
players carry a qualified CFB Index Score this season.
Trent Walker
WR
#75 of 485
Jaheim Patterson
S
#114 of 544
Skyler Thomas
S
#125 of 544
Anthony Hankerson
RB
#139 of 326
Aiden Sullivan
LB
#251 of 583
Sailasa Vadrawale
CB
#179 of 364
+17 more
Oregon State · 2025 schedule & results2-10Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 59% · 3 AP top-25 opponents on the schedule.
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 31 | #89 | #63 | +3 | California | L 15–34 123 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 6 | #87 | #69 | -1.5 | Fresno State | L 27–36 127 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| 3 | Sep 13 | #92 | #25 | +23.5 | @Texas Tech | L 14–45 147 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| 4 | Sep 20 | #90 | #3 | +34.5 | @Oregon | L 7–41 125 | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| 5 | Sep 27 | #95 | #45 | +12.5 | Houston | L 24–27 147 | 0-5 | 0-1 |
| 6 | Oct 4 | #94 | #146 | +2.5 | @App State | L 23–27 134 | 0-6 | 0-1 |
| 7 | Oct 11 | #106 | #75 | +1.5 | Wake Forest | L 14–39 134 | 0-7 | 0-1 |
| 8 | Oct 19 | #130 | #167 | -21.5 | Lafayette | W 45–13 136 | 1-7 | 0-1 |
| 10 | Nov 1 | #111 | #88 | +3 | Washington State | W 10–7 118 | 2-7 | 1-1 |
| 11 | Nov 9 | #112 | #223 | -21.5 | Sam Houston | L 17–21 130 | 2-8 | 1-1 |
| 12 | Nov 15 | #136 | #149 | +1 | @Tulsa | L 14–31 139 | 2-9 | 1-1 |
| 14 | Nov 29 | #144 | #67 | +14.5 | @Washington State | L 8–32 132 | 2-10 | 1-2 |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 | @Washington State | L 8–32 | 280 | 3 | 31:26 | -0.103 | 37.5% | 89.5% | |
| Nov 15 | @Tulsa | L 14–31 | 310 | 0 | 30:37 | +0.049 | 35.2% | 125.3% | |
| Nov 9 | Sam Houston | L 17–21 | 474 | 3 | 37:55 | -0.125 | 43.0% | 112.7% | Season-low EPA/play |
| Nov 1 | Washington State | W 10–7 | 208 | 0 | 31:12 | -0.086 | 38.7% | 73.4% | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 19 | Lafayette | W 45–13 | 517 | 2 | 29:51 | +0.421 | 62.5% | 102.6% | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 11 | Wake Forest | L 14–39 | 309 | 2 | 35:12 | -0.028 | 35.1% | 102.2% | |
| Oct 4 | @App State | L 23–27 | 456 | 3 | 31:30 | +0.107 | 53.5% | 103.6% | One-score loss |
| Sep 27 | Houston | L 24–27 | 390 | 0 | 35:23 | +0.051 | 48.0% | 80.1% | One-score loss |
| Sep 20 | @Oregon | L 7–41 | 147 | 1 | 23:05 | -0.056 | 25.0% | 133.1% | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 13 | @Texas Tech | L 14–45 | 284 | 2 | 29:00 | +0.007 | 27.9% | 175.5% | Most explosive |
| Sep 6 | Fresno State | L 27–36 | 544 | 2 | 37:25 | +0.323 | 51.0% | 127.0% | |
| Aug 31 | California | L 15–34 | 313 | 2 | 29:52 | +0.091 | 42.6% | 88.6% | |
| Season average (12 games) | 353 | 1.7 | +0.054 | 41.7% | 109.5% | ||||
How They Play · 2025
How They Play · 2025Oregon State fields a struggling methodical, ball-control offense behind a leaky, gives up the big play defense.
Opponent-adjusted percentiles vs all FBS. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Oregon State actually scores
2nd percentile quality, 98th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 86th | 11th |
| Akron | 12th | 89th |
| Alabama | 58th | 17th |
| App State | 35th | 47th |
| Arizona | 64th | 37th |
| Arizona State | 41st | 62nd |
| Arkansas | 90th | 12th |
| Arkansas State | 17th | 66th |
| Army | 57th | 43rd |
| Auburn | 47th | 53rd |
| BYU | 78th | 19th |
| Baylor | 69th | 25th |
| Boise State | 66th | 20th |
| Boston College | 37th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 2nd | 98th |
| Buffalo | 11th | 88th |
| California | 28th | 48th |
| Central Michigan | 52nd | 64th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 16th |
| Clemson | 51st | 48th |
| Coastal Carolina | 17th | 83rd |
| Colorado | 18th | 84th |
| Colorado State | 16th | 83rd |
| Delaware | 38th | 58th |
| Duke | 80th | 14th |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 36th |
| Eastern Michigan | 49th | 42nd |
| Florida | 30th | 67th |
| Florida Atlantic | 62nd | 59th |
| Florida International | 42nd | 50th |
| Florida State | 83rd | 32nd |
| Fresno State | 26th | 73rd |
| Georgia | 81st | 3rd |
| Georgia Southern | 73rd | 21st |
| Georgia State | 36th | 70th |
| Georgia Tech | 84th | 5th |
| Hawai'i | 64th | 41st |
| Houston | 27th | 65th |
| Illinois | 75th | 26th |
| Indiana | 95th | 1st |
| Iowa | 44th | 40th |
| Iowa State | 68th | 22nd |
| Jacksonville State | 54th | 38th |
| James Madison | 65th | 44th |
| Kansas | 85th | 28th |
| Kansas State | 71st | 49th |
| Kennesaw State | 56th | 30th |
| Kent State | 21st | 86th |
| Kentucky | 15th | 85th |
| LSU | 14th | 81st |
| Liberty | 43rd | 56th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 73rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 39th | 61st |
| Louisville | 48th | 64th |
| Marshall | 55th | 39th |
| Maryland | 30th | 74th |
| Memphis | 80th | 24th |
| Miami | 76th | 5th |
| Miami (OH) | 34th | 67th |
| Michigan | 67th | 33rd |
| Michigan State | 27th | 75th |
| Middle Tennessee | 39th | 52nd |
| Minnesota | 29th | 77th |
| Mississippi State | 22nd | 77th |
| Missouri | 61st | 30th |
| Missouri State | 55th | 46th |
| NC State | 86th | 23rd |
| Navy | 94th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 48th | 57th |
| Nevada | 3rd | 97th |
| New Mexico | 58th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 9th | 87th |
| North Carolina | 13th | 89th |
| North Texas | 98th | 7th |
| Northern Illinois | 8th | 92nd |
| Northwestern | 52nd | 36th |
| Notre Dame | 99th | 20th |
| Ohio | 67th | 18th |
| Ohio State | 93rd | 4th |
| Oklahoma | 20th | 80th |
| Oklahoma State | 5th | 95th |
| Old Dominion | 83rd | 45th |
| Ole Miss | 89th | 2nd |
| Oregon | 91st | 10th |
| Oregon State | 2nd | 98th |
| Penn State | 73rd | 33rd |
| Pittsburgh | 60th | 39th |
| Purdue | 25th | 78th |
| Rice | 6th | 94th |
| Rutgers | 70th | 27th |
| SMU | 74th | 42nd |
| Sam Houston | 4th | 96th |
| San Diego State | 24th | 76th |
| San José State | 45th | 69th |
| South Alabama | 36th | 58th |
| South Carolina | 23rd | 86th |
| South Florida | 87th | 23rd |
| Southern Miss | 40th | 55th |
| Stanford | 10th | 90th |
| Syracuse | 5th | 95th |
| TCU | 72nd | 35th |
| Temple | 70th | 34th |
| Tennessee | 96th | 11th |
| Texas | 45th | 55th |
| Texas A&M | 82nd | 14th |
| Texas State | 92nd | 8th |
| Texas Tech | 77th | 31st |
| Toledo | 50th | 61st |
| Troy | 14th | 80th |
| Tulane | 79th | 15th |
| Tulsa | 20th | 70th |
| UAB | 61st | 45th |
| UCF | 33rd | 82nd |
| UCLA | 23rd | 79th |
| UConn | 95th | 13th |
| UL Monroe | 11th | 92nd |
| UNLV | 88th | 9th |
| USC | 98th | 2nd |
| UTEP | 1st | 99th |
| UTSA | 77th | 51st |
| Utah | 97th | 6th |
| Utah State | 46th | 63rd |
| Vanderbilt | 100th | 0th |
| Virginia | 59th | 27th |
| Virginia Tech | 32nd | 71st |
| Wake Forest | 42nd | 72nd |
| Washington | 92nd | 8th |
| Washington State | 33rd | 52nd |
| West Virginia | 7th | 93rd |
| Western Kentucky | 53rd | 29th |
| Western Michigan | 31st | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 0th | 100th |
| Wyoming | 8th | 91st |
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Oregon State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 54th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 4th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Oregon State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
54th percentile success on standard downs, 25th on passing downs — a 29-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 82nd | 69th |
| Akron | 20th | 36th |
| Alabama | 47th | 76th |
| App State | 41st | 80th |
| Arizona | 54th | 54th |
| Arizona State | 40th | 37th |
| Arkansas | 90th | 97th |
| Arkansas State | 51st | 40th |
| Army | 37th | 44th |
| Auburn | 73rd | 24th |
| Austin Peay | 56th | 13th |
| BYU | 91st | 46th |
| Ball State | 5th | 3rd |
| Baylor | 70th | 77th |
| Boise State | 42nd | 63rd |
| Boston College | 56th | 54th |
| Bowling Green | 10th | 17th |
| Bryant | 7th | 2nd |
| Buffalo | 29th | 20th |
| California | 25th | 66th |
| Central Michigan | 57th | 11th |
| Charlotte | 7th | 7th |
| Cincinnati | 89th | 65th |
| Clemson | 49th | 34th |
| Coastal Carolina | 16th | 22nd |
| Colorado | 8th | 48th |
| Colorado State | 29th | 35th |
| Delaware | 66th | 31st |
| Duke | 82nd | 63rd |
| East Carolina | 63rd | 91st |
| Eastern Michigan | 46th | 67th |
| Florida | 52nd | 45th |
| Florida Atlantic | 44th | 61st |
| Florida International | 50th | 26th |
| Florida State | 65th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 22nd | 71st |
| Georgia | 95th | 69th |
| Georgia Southern | 64th | 84th |
| Georgia State | 22nd | 75th |
| Georgia Tech | 92nd | 89th |
| Hawai'i | 33rd | 87th |
| Houston | 61st | 29th |
| Idaho | 30th | 78th |
| Idaho State | 93rd | 14th |
| Illinois | 79th | 95th |
| Indiana | 97th | 98th |
| Iowa | 74th | 19th |
| Iowa State | 80th | 58th |
| Jacksonville State | 59th | 56th |
| James Madison | 77th | 52nd |
| Kansas | 99th | 82nd |
| Kansas State | 37th | 59th |
| Kennesaw State | 44th | 67th |
| Kent State | 15th | 5th |
| Kentucky | 62nd | 29th |
| LSU | 18th | 52nd |
| Lafayette | 0th | 12th |
| Liberty | 65th | 53rd |
| Lindenwood | 4th | 1st |
| Long Island University | 24th | 78th |
| Louisiana | 24th | 23rd |
| Louisiana Tech | 41st | 24th |
| Louisville | 84th | 32nd |
| Maine | 3rd | 18th |
| Marshall | 71st | 62nd |
| Maryland | 11th | 86th |
| Massachusetts | 5th | 9th |
| Memphis | 75th | 68th |
| Merrimack | 1st | 83rd |
| Miami | 80th | 64th |
| Miami (OH) | 33rd | 39th |
| Michigan | 73rd | 74th |
| Michigan State | 48th | 39th |
| Middle Tennessee | 69th | 47th |
| Minnesota | 35th | 33rd |
| Mississippi State | 52nd | 35th |
| Missouri | 76th | 50th |
| Missouri State | 32nd | 50th |
| Murray State | 1st | 6th |
| NC State | 58th | 71st |
| Navy | 95th | 72nd |
| Nebraska | 78th | 51st |
| Nevada | 17th | 16th |
| New Mexico | 38th | 60th |
| New Mexico State | 16th | 33rd |
| North Carolina | 14th | 30th |
| North Texas | 100th | 97th |
| Northern Illinois | 9th | 5th |
| Northwestern | 48th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 88th | 99th |
| Ohio | 69th | 76th |
| Ohio State | 99th | 99th |
| Oklahoma | 39th | 41st |
| Oklahoma State | 14th | 7th |
| Old Dominion | 72nd | 79th |
| Ole Miss | 83rd | 95th |
| Oregon | 93rd | 55th |
| Oregon State | 54th | 25th |
| Penn State | 76th | 73rd |
| Pittsburgh | 35th | 56th |
| Purdue | 46th | 88th |
| Rice | 20th | 0th |
| Rutgers | 71st | 84th |
| SMU | 50th | 57th |
| Sam Houston | 26th | 4th |
| San Diego State | 84th | 1st |
| San José State | 68th | 70th |
| South Alabama | 53rd | 28th |
| South Carolina | 31st | 8th |
| South Carolina State | 10th | 3rd |
| South Florida | 86th | 46th |
| Southern Miss | 27th | 38th |
| Stanford | 12th | 12th |
| Syracuse | 19th | 10th |
| TCU | 63rd | 82nd |
| Temple | 85th | 22nd |
| Tennessee | 97th | 81st |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 88th | 59th |
| Texas State | 60th | 93rd |
| Texas Tech | 45th | 65th |
| Toledo | 67th | 42nd |
| Troy | 18th | 27th |
| Tulane | 81st | 86th |
| Tulsa | 43rd | 43rd |
| UAB | 34th | 94th |
| UCF | 39th | 20th |
| UCLA | 28th | 48th |
| UConn | 96th | 37th |
| UL Monroe | 13th | 14th |
| UNLV | 78th | 85th |
| USC | 94th | 90th |
| UT Martin | 2nd | 41st |
| UTEP | 3rd | 10th |
| UTSA | 67th | 92nd |
| Utah | 87th | 96th |
| Utah State | 31st | 49th |
| Vanderbilt | 90th | 100th |
| Virginia | 36th | 73rd |
| Virginia Tech | 59th | 21st |
| Wake Forest | 21st | 31st |
| Washington | 98th | 93rd |
| Washington State | 61st | 44th |
| West Virginia | 12th | 18th |
| Western Kentucky | 55th | 80th |
| Western Michigan | 86th | 16th |
| Wisconsin | 6th | 27th |
| Wyoming | 23rd | 15th |
Halftime identity
Oregon State by half
1st-half offense ranks 15th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 6th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Schedule mirage
How much of Oregon State's number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 21 is 0.05; 21st percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.00. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.21 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Oregon State reads strongest in success rate allowed (top 26%) and rushing epa allowed (top 50%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Oregon State sits at the 1st percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
ELITE · 90+STRONG · 70+AVERAGE · 40-70CONCERN · 10-40BOTTOM · <10
Most Similar Programs · Oregon State
Most Similar Programs · Oregon StateReads Like
AkronTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontApp StateTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up frontArkansasTier 3 · Prestige T3 · Similarly-sized rosters up front
Static-attribute similarity across tier, archetype, conference, and voice. Not a prediction — a calibration.
Home-Field Advantage · Oregon State · 2018-present
Strong
55% home win rate vs 29% on the road. margin runs +9.9 better at home. Reser Stadium seats 43,363, averaging 79% full (34,180 attendance, 26 games reported).
Home27-22Away12-29
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Anthony Hankerson and Cornell Hatcher Jr. split the carries (253/302 vs 49/302) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Anthony Hankerson gets the clock-killing work; Cornell Hatcher Jr. produces in bigger chunks.
Anthony HankersonCornell Hatcher Jr.
Carries
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Inside the 5
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Q4, leading (competitive)
p = 0.025 -- real, not noise
Targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-carry share
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 4 claims, 2 survived, 2 falsified
Positional competition · WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Trent Walker (WR) and Bryce Caufield (TE) split the targets (93/128 vs 35/128) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Trent WalkerBryce Caufield
Targets
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Inside the 10
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Garbage-time share
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
concentration alone -- EPA/target doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 4 claims, 0 survived, 4 falsified
What changed
Oregon State’s play-calling, before and after the change
Offense: Brian Lindgren (2018–2023) → Ryan Gunderson (2024–2025)
Play-calling barely moved on the change — every rate held within a few points.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
4th-down go rate
Defense: Keith Heyward (2024) → co-Rod Chance (2025)
The biggest shift: 1st-down pass rate moved up 10 points. The rest held closer to steady.
1st-down pass rate
Red-zone pass rate
Season by season
How Oregon State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Offense: Ryan Gunderson (2024–2025)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 36% → 2025: 46% · 10-pt range · #78 of 171 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 32% → 2025: 40% · 7-pt range · #136 of 171 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2024: 50% → 2025: 44% · 6-pt range · #160 of 171 · less than most
Defensive identity · pass zones
What this defense gives up, by zone.
On short passes, Oregon State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.4% vs 65.9% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 73-play sample) — mid-pack, 35 of 133 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball leaderboard here: at the defense level, most teams face well under 30 rich-feed deep targets all season — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess.
Screened 133 claims, 133 survived · 2025 only, in the 399 games with the detailed play-text feed; n=73 short-zone plays faced, raw rate 61.6%
Historical echo
Oregon State’s slide has precedent — and 2 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
Tennessee 2014–2019
clawed back
UCLA 1996–2001
kept sliding
Illinois 1983–1988
clawed back
Kansas 1994–1999
kept sliding
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Venue texture
59°F average kickoff temp; 16% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 75 home games with weather data.
The CFP Era
12 seasons inside the CFP era, no bids yet — the era the program is still trying to break into.
TRAJECTORY · quality-score line · AP rank dotted · CFP bids marked · coach regimes ribboned
Program Quality
AP Rank (inverted)
CFP Appearance
Oregon State's 2014–2025 record is 53-88. The era is still being written; the CFP line is the one the program is arguing for.
All-Time Record
499-608-36
since 1915 · 109 seasons · .436 win rate
HOME
306-241-18
AWAY
182-358-18
NEUTRAL
11-9
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
2020s
The program, in full — read the essay
Ten Pac-12 schools left. Oregon State and Washington State were handed the keys to an empty conference and told to figure it out. The Beavers went 2-10 in 2025. They are still there.
Oregon State refused to disappear. When the Pac-12 emptied — UCLA, USC, Colorado, Utah and six others sprinting for the Big Ten and ACC exits between 2022 and 2024 — only the Beavers and Washington State were left holding a 108-year-old conference with no other members. The choice was to fold or fight. Oregon State sued, won the legal right to keep the conference's name and assets, and started rebuilding a league from the remnants. The institutional act of that decision — staying when staying was the hardest possible thing — became the program's modern identity. The fanbase in Corvallis filled Reser Stadium through the holdout years as a statement, not a reward.
The 2025 season collected the football bill for all of it. Trent Bray's rebuilding program went 0-7 to start, lost the headcoach job in October, and finished 2-10 under interim Robb Akey — the price of a roster that had to be rebuilt twice over, for a conference still adding members, against a schedule that had few soft spots. On December 3, the Beavers hired JaMarcus Shephard — Alabama's co-offensive coordinator, first-time head coach — to run two rebuilds at once: a 2-10 roster and a Pac-12 that is still becoming whatever it will become. Boise State joined the reformed Pac-12 starting in 2026, which helps. The conference still doesn't fully exist in the form it will eventually take.
The 2026 question is what a year-one JaMarcus Shephard offense can produce on a roster that has been hemorrhaging talent since the realignment wave started. Oregon State's neighbor — Oregon — walked into the Big Ten and left the Civil War behind without a backward glance. The Beavers stayed. The 2000 Fiesta Bowl season, the 41-9 rout of Notre Dame that was the program's modern high-water mark, and the 2022 ten-win run under Jonathan Smith are the proof that the ceiling exists. Whether Shephard can find it from the current floor, in a rebuilt conference, is the whole story.
How they play
Corvallis-tough: historically a blue-collar, run-first, defense-minded program built to out-work programs with more resources — the Oregon State that beat Notre Dame 41-9 in the Fiesta Bowl did it on physical line play and disciplined execution. Shephard brings an Alabama offensive pedigree — pro-style concepts with spread elements, built around tight-window throws and designed run schemes. The 2026 identity will be shaped by which portal acquisitions arrive and what Shephard can teach a young roster in a single spring.
Rising
Oregon State 2016–2025. Climbing +1.6 rungs across the last 10 seasons. Slope +0.16 rungs / year — moving up the prestige scale.
CFP Era · Oregon State
12 seasons on file
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
down middle peak CFP year
Season Standing · 2025 · 2-10
Season Standing · 2025 · 2-10FBS sub-.500
Oregon State: Below .500 in FBS play. The rebuild bar.
R0R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9
Sub-FBSBuildingBowlRankedContenderPlayoff
Pac-12 Standing · 2025
5th in the Pac-12
Oregon State sits 5th of 8 in the Pac-12 at 1-2. Mid-conference — moves up or down depend on rivalry results and the late-season closing run.
| # | Program | Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington State | 4-1 |
| 2 | San Diego State | 3-1 |
| 3 | Boise State | 2-2 |
| 4 | Fresno State | 2-3 |
| 5 | Oregon State | 1-2 |
| 6 | Utah State | 1-2 |
| 7 | Colorado State | 1-3 |
| 8 | Texas State | 0-0 |
Coaching Era · Oregon State
Coaching Era · Oregon StateJaMarcus Shephard
JaMarcus Shephard took over from Trent Bray for the 2026 season.
Era JaMarcus Shephard · 2026–presentPrev: Trent Bray (2024–2025)OC: Mitch Dahlen / co-Ryan WallacePrev OC: Ryan Gunderson (2024–2025)DC: Mike MacIntyre / co-Cort DennisonPrev DC: co-Rod Chance (2025)
1
year · era
Rituals
Three gameday rituals — the ones outsiders never quite catch.
2000 Fiesta Bowl Run
since 2000
Dennis Erickson's 2000 11-1 + Fiesta Bowl championship + #4 final AP rank — defeated Notre Dame 41-9 in the Fiesta Bowl, the program's only major bowl win. Chad Johnson + T.J. Houshmandzadeh + Ken Simonton + Steven Jackson — the era produced multiple NFL stars. The Erickson tenure (1999-2002) reset what Beaver fans believed possible.
Civil War (Oregon Rivalry)
since 1894
The Civil War rivalry — Oregon State vs Oregon, since 1894 — was one of CFB's most-storied. Renamed in 2020 to drop the Civil War branding. The 2024 Pac-12 collapse + Oregon's Big Ten departure moved the annual game to nonconference status rather than pausing it — the two schools kept it on the schedule in both 2024 and 2025, with a one-year break coming in 2026 before at least 6 more games starting 2027, confirming the trophy continues across conference lines.
Pac-12 Holdout (2024)
since 2024
Oregon State + Washington State were the two programs that DIDN'T leave for the SEC / Big Ten / ACC / Big 12 in the 2024 Pac-12 collapse. The 'Pac-12 Two' held the conference's legal entity + scheduled a 2024 season largely against Mountain West + non-conference opponents. The defiance + uncertainty + rebuild became permanent program identity.
Program memory
What this program never forgets
Most weeks vanish. These didn’t.
2000 Fiesta Bowl rout of Notre Dame
Oregon State 41, Notre Dame 9 — the 11-1 season's exclamation point and the program's modern peak
2024
The Pac-12 holdout
Left with only Washington State, Oregon State sued, kept the conference, and refused to fold
The 2025 collapse
A 2-10 season and an 0-7 start that cost Trent Bray his job — the football price of survival
Wound
Moment of the Year · Oregon State · 2025
Moment of the Year · Oregon State · 2025Lost 7-41 at Oregon
Week 4 of 2025. A reckoning loss — the data point the next season must answer.
Bowl / Postseason Ledger
Bowl / Postseason LedgerRecent postseason (2021-2023): 1-2
Most recent: 2023 — loss 40-8 (away). Last 5 postseason: 1-2.
202320222021
NFL Draft Pipeline
2022–2024
NFL Draft PipelineDeveloping
6 picks last 5 cycles. Pipeline emerging.
6
picks · 1 R1
#14
Taliese Fuaga
Offensive Tackle · 2024 · New Orleans
#42
Luke Musgrave
Tight End · 2023 · Green Bay · #60/119 final season
#142
Anthony Gould
Wide Receiver · 2024 · Indianapolis · #122/497 final season
#68 all-time · 6 first-round picksthe talent factory →
Unit lineage
Oregon State’s offense and defense, by coordinator
FBS-relative efficiency percentile per season (2014–2025), same population as the Coordinator Mirror board. Dashed vertical lines mark a coordinator change.
Offense2014–2025
2014 · John Garrett2015 · Dave Baldwin2016–2017 · co-Kevin McGiven / co-T. J. Woods2018–2023 · Brian Lindgren2024–2025 · Ryan Gunderson
Hired for 2026: Mitch Dahlen / co-Ryan Wallace — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Defense2014–2025
2014 · Mark Banker2015 · Kalani Sitake2016–2017 · Kevin Clune2018–2021 · Tim Tibesar2022–2023 · Trent Bray2024 · Keith Heyward2025 · co-Rod Chance
Hired for 2026: Mike MacIntyre / co-Cort Dennison — not yet reflected in on-field data.
Elite (≥70th pct)AveragePoor (≤30th pct)
Chronicle Visuals
Average 2025 continuity (52% back) — offense anchors it, qb room is the stress point.
The portal upgraded the TE room but opened a hole at WR.
Oregon State sits where recruit talent and draft yield largely match.
r/cfb moments
2.5k
[Postgame Thread] Oregon State Defeats USC 45-27
1.7k
[Postgame Thread] USC Defeats Oregon State 17-14
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